In this quarter’s update, we have updated the
Bangladesh telecoms report with latest figures from the Bangladesh
Telecommunications Regulatory Commission (BTRC) as well as Bangladeshi
telecoms operators. Despite the new data, there were no major changes to
our forecast scenarios as the various subscriber growth trajectories
are within our expectations.
The total number of mobile subscribers in Bangladesh at the end of 2011 was slightly higher than we had previously estimated. According to data provided by the BTRC and mobile operators, there were 92.570mn subscribers, a penetration rate of 61.5%. BMI forecasts the penetration rate to increase to 72.9% in 2012, which places in the country in 17th position out of the 18 Asia Pacific countries covered in our reports. The underdeveloped situation is also present in the fixed-line and broadband markets as we envisage only 1.069mn fixed-line and 448,000 broadband subscribers in the country at the end of 2012.
While we expect growth in all three sectors, the pace is likely to result in Bangladesh further lagging behind its peers.
At present, the 3G auction in Bangladesh is scheduled for September 2012, although there is still a possibility that the process could be delayed. Regional peer Pakistan, which initially planned to auction licences in March 2012, has postponed its auction without disclosing a new timeframe, and Bangladesh could follow a similar path. The biggest threat to the 3G auction in Bangladesh is the dispute between the regulator and mobile operators over fees and taxes associated with the renewal of 2G licences, which expired in November 2011. Operators could scrutinise the relevant regulations in order to prevent a repeat of the 2G renewal saga.
The introduction of 3G services could threaten Bangladesh’s WiMAX industry, which had 323,307 subscribers at the end of February 2012. We envisage strong competition between the 3G licence winners, as well as a suite of low-cost mobile devices such as smartphones, which would spur adoption among price-sensitive consumers. Despite the imminent threat, there is a positive that could emerge from the launch of 3G services. Operators are expected to aggressively market their services, thereby raising the profile and awareness for mobile broadband technologies. While we expect customers with basic needs to be attracted to 3G services, consumers and businesses that demand higher speeds could turn to WiMAX..
Bangladesh had a Telecoms Rating score of 48.9 in BMI’s latest Asia Pacific Telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings. We firmly believe that Bangladesh is poised to record its slowest rate of growth in three years in FY2011/12 (July-June), with real GDP growth expected to come in at 5.9% (from 6.7% in FY2010/11). Consensus expectations (for 6.5% growth) remain overly optimistic, given the clearly deteriorating economic picture (for example the ongoing deceleration of M3 money supply growth and the general slowdown in industrial production activity). Meanwhile, public unrest due to heightened tensions between the ruling Awami League (AL) and its main opposition, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), will unlikely subside as both sides continue to confront each other regarding the restoration of the caretaker government system (abolished by the AL-led parliament in 2011). Bangladesh scores a low 67.1 (out of 100) in our short-term political risk ratings as it performs poorly in terms of social stability. That said, we note that the AL could be forced to compromise as it slowly loses public support, while the BNP gradually gains favour.
Q3 2012 Telecommunications Report of Bangladesh
Published: May 2012 No. of Pages: 95 Price: US $ 1175
The total number of mobile subscribers in Bangladesh at the end of 2011 was slightly higher than we had previously estimated. According to data provided by the BTRC and mobile operators, there were 92.570mn subscribers, a penetration rate of 61.5%. BMI forecasts the penetration rate to increase to 72.9% in 2012, which places in the country in 17th position out of the 18 Asia Pacific countries covered in our reports. The underdeveloped situation is also present in the fixed-line and broadband markets as we envisage only 1.069mn fixed-line and 448,000 broadband subscribers in the country at the end of 2012.
While we expect growth in all three sectors, the pace is likely to result in Bangladesh further lagging behind its peers.
At present, the 3G auction in Bangladesh is scheduled for September 2012, although there is still a possibility that the process could be delayed. Regional peer Pakistan, which initially planned to auction licences in March 2012, has postponed its auction without disclosing a new timeframe, and Bangladesh could follow a similar path. The biggest threat to the 3G auction in Bangladesh is the dispute between the regulator and mobile operators over fees and taxes associated with the renewal of 2G licences, which expired in November 2011. Operators could scrutinise the relevant regulations in order to prevent a repeat of the 2G renewal saga.
The introduction of 3G services could threaten Bangladesh’s WiMAX industry, which had 323,307 subscribers at the end of February 2012. We envisage strong competition between the 3G licence winners, as well as a suite of low-cost mobile devices such as smartphones, which would spur adoption among price-sensitive consumers. Despite the imminent threat, there is a positive that could emerge from the launch of 3G services. Operators are expected to aggressively market their services, thereby raising the profile and awareness for mobile broadband technologies. While we expect customers with basic needs to be attracted to 3G services, consumers and businesses that demand higher speeds could turn to WiMAX..
Bangladesh had a Telecoms Rating score of 48.9 in BMI’s latest Asia Pacific Telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings. We firmly believe that Bangladesh is poised to record its slowest rate of growth in three years in FY2011/12 (July-June), with real GDP growth expected to come in at 5.9% (from 6.7% in FY2010/11). Consensus expectations (for 6.5% growth) remain overly optimistic, given the clearly deteriorating economic picture (for example the ongoing deceleration of M3 money supply growth and the general slowdown in industrial production activity). Meanwhile, public unrest due to heightened tensions between the ruling Awami League (AL) and its main opposition, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), will unlikely subside as both sides continue to confront each other regarding the restoration of the caretaker government system (abolished by the AL-led parliament in 2011). Bangladesh scores a low 67.1 (out of 100) in our short-term political risk ratings as it performs poorly in terms of social stability. That said, we note that the AL could be forced to compromise as it slowly loses public support, while the BNP gradually gains favour.
Q3 2012 Telecommunications Report of Bangladesh
Published: May 2012 No. of Pages: 95 Price: US $ 1175
Table of Contents
Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Bangladesh Wireline Business Environment SWOT ... 7
Bangladesh Mobile Business Environment SWOT . 8
Bangladesh Political SWOT ... 9
Bangladesh Economic SWOT .. 10
Bangladesh Business Environment SWOT ... 10
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings 11
Asia Pacific Telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings 15
Bangladesh ... 16
Industry Forecasts . 18
Mobile ... 18
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts 18
ARPU 20
Table: Bangladesh Mobile ARPU – Historical Data and Forecasts (BDT), 2009-2016 .. 20
Fixed Line . 22
Table: Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ... 22
Internet.. 24
Table: Telecoms Sector – Internet & Broadband – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 24
Market Data Analysis . 26
Mobile Market... 26
Table: Bangladesh Wireless Market, December 2011 . 27
Table: Bangladesh Wireless Market Net Additions, Q411 ... 28
Subscriber Mix . 29
ARPU ... 30
3G 31
Mobile Contract Wins .. 33
Table: Mobile Contract Wins, 2008-2012 33
Mobile Operator Data .. 34
Table: Market Overview .. 34
Table: Grameenphone . 34
Table: Banglalink 36
Table: Robi Axiata ... 37
Table: Warid Telecom .. 38
Table: Citycell . 38
Table: Teletalk . 38
Mobile Content . 39
Regional Outlook . 39
Table: Selected NFC Developments, 2011 ... 41
Country Outlook .. 44
Table: Selected VAS Services Launched, 2010-2012 ... 47
Fixed Line . 48
Table: Bangladesh Fixed-Line Market, May 2010 ... 49
Broadband 50
VoIP Services 53
WiMAX.. 56
Regulatory Environment ... 58
Regulatory Developments 59
Competitive Landscape 61
Competitor Analysis .. 61
Table: Key Players – Bangladesh Telecoms Sector . 61
Company Monitor .. 62
Samsung Electronics . 62
Samsung Electronics Financial Performance (KRWbn) .. 62
Operator Profiles ... 68
Grameenphone . 68
Banglalink 72
Robi Axiata Bangladesh ... 74
Citycell . 77
Bangladesh Telecommunications Company (BTCL) 78
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview ... 82
Fixed Line . 82
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview .. 82
Mobile ... 83
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview 83
Broadband 84
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview . 84
Country Snapshot: Bangladesh Demographic Data .. 85
Section 1: Population 85
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 85
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 86
Section 2: Education and Healthcare 86
Table: Education, 2001-2003 ... 86
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 86
Section 3: Labour Market and Spending Power 87
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 .. 87
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2010 (US$) 87
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 1996-2002 . 88
Glossary Of Terms . 89
Table: Glossary Of Terms 89
BMI Methodology ... 90
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ... 90
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts 90
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings .. 92
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology .. 92
Ratings System . 92
Indicators . 92
Table: Ratings Indicators . 93
Weighting . 94
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 94
Sources 94Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts . 18
Table: Bangladesh Mobile ARPU – Historical Data and Forecasts (BDT), 2009-2016 . 20
Table: Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 22
Table: Telecoms Sector – Internet & Broadband – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 24
Table: Bangladesh Wireless Market, December 2011 . 27
Table: Bangladesh Wireless Market Net Additions, Q411 . 28
Table: Mobile Contract Wins, 2008-2012 . 33
Table: Market Overview . 34
Table: Grameenphone . 34
Table: Banglalink . 36
Table: Robi Axiata . 37
Table: Warid Telecom . 38
Table: Citycell . 38
Table: Teletalk . 38
Table: Selected NFC Developments, 2011 . 41
Table: Selected VAS Services Launched, 2010-2012 . 47
Table: Bangladesh Fixed-Line Market, May 2010 . 49
Table: Key Players – Bangladesh Telecoms Sector . 61
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview . 82
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview . 83
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview . 84
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 . 85
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 . 86
Table: Education, 2001-2003 . 86
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 . 86
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 . 87
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2010 (US$) . 87
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 1996-2002 . 88
Table: Glossary Of Terms . 89
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts . 90
Table: Ratings Indicators . 93
Table: Weighting Of Indicators. 94
SWOT Analysis 7
Bangladesh Wireline Business Environment SWOT ... 7
Bangladesh Mobile Business Environment SWOT . 8
Bangladesh Political SWOT ... 9
Bangladesh Economic SWOT .. 10
Bangladesh Business Environment SWOT ... 10
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings 11
Asia Pacific Telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings 15
Bangladesh ... 16
Industry Forecasts . 18
Mobile ... 18
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts 18
ARPU 20
Table: Bangladesh Mobile ARPU – Historical Data and Forecasts (BDT), 2009-2016 .. 20
Fixed Line . 22
Table: Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ... 22
Internet.. 24
Table: Telecoms Sector – Internet & Broadband – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 24
Market Data Analysis . 26
Mobile Market... 26
Table: Bangladesh Wireless Market, December 2011 . 27
Table: Bangladesh Wireless Market Net Additions, Q411 ... 28
Subscriber Mix . 29
ARPU ... 30
3G 31
Mobile Contract Wins .. 33
Table: Mobile Contract Wins, 2008-2012 33
Mobile Operator Data .. 34
Table: Market Overview .. 34
Table: Grameenphone . 34
Table: Banglalink 36
Table: Robi Axiata ... 37
Table: Warid Telecom .. 38
Table: Citycell . 38
Table: Teletalk . 38
Mobile Content . 39
Regional Outlook . 39
Table: Selected NFC Developments, 2011 ... 41
Country Outlook .. 44
Table: Selected VAS Services Launched, 2010-2012 ... 47
Fixed Line . 48
Table: Bangladesh Fixed-Line Market, May 2010 ... 49
Broadband 50
VoIP Services 53
WiMAX.. 56
Regulatory Environment ... 58
Regulatory Developments 59
Competitive Landscape 61
Competitor Analysis .. 61
Table: Key Players – Bangladesh Telecoms Sector . 61
Company Monitor .. 62
Samsung Electronics . 62
Samsung Electronics Financial Performance (KRWbn) .. 62
Operator Profiles ... 68
Grameenphone . 68
Banglalink 72
Robi Axiata Bangladesh ... 74
Citycell . 77
Bangladesh Telecommunications Company (BTCL) 78
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview ... 82
Fixed Line . 82
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview .. 82
Mobile ... 83
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview 83
Broadband 84
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview . 84
Country Snapshot: Bangladesh Demographic Data .. 85
Section 1: Population 85
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 85
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 86
Section 2: Education and Healthcare 86
Table: Education, 2001-2003 ... 86
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 86
Section 3: Labour Market and Spending Power 87
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 .. 87
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2010 (US$) 87
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 1996-2002 . 88
Glossary Of Terms . 89
Table: Glossary Of Terms 89
BMI Methodology ... 90
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ... 90
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts 90
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings .. 92
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology .. 92
Ratings System . 92
Indicators . 92
Table: Ratings Indicators . 93
Weighting . 94
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 94
Sources 94Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts . 18
Table: Bangladesh Mobile ARPU – Historical Data and Forecasts (BDT), 2009-2016 . 20
Table: Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 22
Table: Telecoms Sector – Internet & Broadband – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 24
Table: Bangladesh Wireless Market, December 2011 . 27
Table: Bangladesh Wireless Market Net Additions, Q411 . 28
Table: Mobile Contract Wins, 2008-2012 . 33
Table: Market Overview . 34
Table: Grameenphone . 34
Table: Banglalink . 36
Table: Robi Axiata . 37
Table: Warid Telecom . 38
Table: Citycell . 38
Table: Teletalk . 38
Table: Selected NFC Developments, 2011 . 41
Table: Selected VAS Services Launched, 2010-2012 . 47
Table: Bangladesh Fixed-Line Market, May 2010 . 49
Table: Key Players – Bangladesh Telecoms Sector . 61
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview . 82
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview . 83
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview . 84
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 . 85
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 . 86
Table: Education, 2001-2003 . 86
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 . 86
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 . 87
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2010 (US$) . 87
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 1996-2002 . 88
Table: Glossary Of Terms . 89
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts . 90
Table: Ratings Indicators . 93
Table: Weighting Of Indicators. 94
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