Kenya Food and Drink Report Q3 2012

The dynamics of a stronger currency, tight monetary policy and improved weather conditions suggest
that domestic demand conditions should remain reasonably healthy in 2012. While the lagged impact
of tighter monetary conditions could start to bite, we do not believe that this will bear a substantial
impact on consumption spending in the coming quarters.

The Kenyan consumer-facing sectors are showing tremendous long-term promise. Although Kenya is
not clearly distinguishable from its neighbours Tanzania and Uganda in terms of GDP per capita,
Kenya’s consumer sector is significantly more developed than these countries. The domestic food and
drink processing industry is much stronger, and internal trade systems are more developed, with
organised grocery retail outlets much more widespread.

Following a challenging two-year period over 2008 and 2009, as post-election violence and then a
sluggish economy reined in private consumption after a period of accelerated growth, Kenya is much
more integrated into the global economy than the rest of the East African Community (EAC). Kenya
is the EAC’s economic hub and its most developed consumer market.

Our strong Kenyan view is also backed up by the fact that we believe companies can more efficiently
reach the end-consumer market in comparison with Tanzania and Uganda. Internal trade systems are
stronger, with mass grocery retail contributing an estimated 5% to consolidated grocery sales
compared with a non-Kenyan East African average of about 1%.

Headline Industry Data

• Per capita food consumption is forecast to increase by 13.0% in 2012. To 2016, we are forecasting a compound annual growth of 10.6%.
• Mass grocery retail sales are forecast to increase by 29.2% in 2012. To 2016, we are forecasting a compound annual growth of 31.6%.

Q3 2012 Report of Food and Drink Market of Kenya

Published: June 2012        No. of Pages: 65          Price:  US $ 1175  

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 5
Business Environment 6
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views . 6
Table: BMI’s Core Views . 16
Sub-Saharan Africa Food & Drink Ratings ... 17
Table: Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings Q312 (scores out of 10) 18
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q312 21
Macroeconomic Outlook ... 22
Table: Kenya – Economic Activity ... 24
Industry Forecast Scenario .. 25
Food, Drink, Mass Grocery Retail 25
Food . 25
Table: Kenya – Food Consumption .. 26
Table: Kenya – Meat 27
Table: Kenya – Fish . 29
Table: Kenya – Dairy ... 31
Table: Kenya – Snack Foods 36
Drink 37
Table: Kenya – Beer . 37
Table: Kenya – Carbonated Drinks .. 38
Table: Kenya – Fruit/Vegetable Juice .. 39
Mass Grocery Retail . 40
Table: Kenya – Mass Grocery Retail Sales .. 41
Market Overview 42
An Overview Of The East African Food And Drink Industry 42
Key Regional Industry Trends And Developments 50
Africa To Guzzle A Lot More Beer; Look Out For Nigeria ... 50
Demographic Outlook ... 54
Kenya''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) .. 54
Kenya''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 55
Kenya''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . 56
Kenya''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 ... 57
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology . 58
Table: Rewards 59
Table: Risks .. 59
Weighting .. 60
Table: Weighting .. 60
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary ... 61
Food & Drink 61
Mass Grocery Retail .. 61
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing . 63
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 63
Sourcing ... 64Table: BMI''s Core Views . 16
Table: Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings Q312 (scores out of 10) . 18
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q312 . 21
Table: Kenya – Economic Activity . 24
Table: Kenya – Food Consumption . 26
Table: Kenya – Meat . 27
Table: Kenya – Fish . 29
Table: Kenya – Dairy . 31
Table: Kenya – Snack Foods . 36
Table: Kenya – Beer . 37
Table: Kenya – Carbonated Drinks . 38
Table: Kenya – Fruit/Vegetable Juice . 39
Table: Kenya – Mass Grocery Retail Sales . 41
Table: Rewards . 59
Table: Risks . 59

Table: Weighting . 60