Angola BMI View: Despite being an
oil-rich country and net exporter, Angola’s domestic power supply is met
by energy generated by hydroelectricity, with only a small percentage
of energy generation coming from alternative sources. The country is
making some progress towards diversifying its energy mix: some new
thermal capacity is planned, and a LNG project is scheduled to begin
construction in May 2012, but other areas, namely solar power, remain
undeveloped. An election year is upon Angola, and while BMI does not
expect a change in government – President Dos Santos has been in power
for over 30 years – the government announced it will spend US$16.5bn in
electricity infrastructure between 2012 and 2016.
Whether this promise is fulfilled post-election remains to be seen. BMI forecasts that Angola''s overall power generation will increase by an annual average of 9.7% between 2011 and 2016, to reach 6.76 terawatt hours (TWh). A 10.0% annual average increase in hydropower will spur this growth, and this will continue to be the source of the majority of Angola’s domestic energy production over the forecast period. We envisage Angola''s net power consumption increasing from 3.65TWh in 2011 to 5.78TWh by 2016. A steady increase in GDP will support growth; following real GDP growth of 5.2% in 2011, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 7.8% between 2011 and 2021.
We expect improvements to Angola''s national electricity grid to result in a gradual decline in the percentage of transmission and distribution (T&D) losses; this will fall from around 14.6% in 2011. The presence of oil and gas majors in the country will incentivise the government to improve its electricity infrastructure to meet industry’s requirements. We do not expect Angola to have to import significant quantities of electricity, nor do we expect electricity exports to be substantial.
Key developments in Angola’s power sector this quarter include: Work on a LNG terminal in Soyo has been delayed, with a start date now set for May 2012. The project is funded through a partnership between five oil & gas majors.
In April 2012, President José Eduardo dos Santos stated that by 2016, Angola’s energy supply would be stabilised, with the government earmarking US$16.5bn for energy investments.
Work began on a 10MW thermal power station in Menongue in March 2012, with the US$30- 40mn investment scheduled to begin operations by early 2013.
Botswana BMI View: With almost all of its domestically produced energy sourced from coal-fired power stations, Botswana has a very narrow power base – and as continued outages illustrate, it is not capable of meeting national consumption requirements. In order to raise capacity, the government plans to boost energy production from coal-fired sources with the goal of reaching self-sufficiency and reducing dependence upon unreliable, and expensive, imports from South Africa. Botswana is not the only country to suffer from shortages and in April 2012 it entered into an agreement with Namibia’s NamPower, along with Zimbabwe and Zambia, to improve and control energy consumption in these four countries. In the five years period 2011 to 2016, BMI forecasts that Botswana''s overall power generation will increase by an annual average of 28.4%, to reach 2.0TWh.
We expect all of this growth to come from new or existing coal-fired power plants. Botswana’s government plans to expand its domestic power production – in turn, reducing its dependence upon neighbouring South Africa for energy imports throughout the course of 2012 – by developing new coal-fired power facilities, such as the Mmamabula coal-fired power plant, which is being constructed by Canada''s CIC Energy Corp. There is scope for renewable energy development, solar power in particular; a feasibility for one 200MW solar power project began in late 2011, with its completion expected in September 2012. There are also plans for the introduction of renewable energy Feed-In Tariffs (FITs).
Between 2011 and 2016, we predict that Botswana''s net power consumption will increase from 3.3TWh to 4.6TWh. The mining sector is the most important consumer segment in Botswana in terms of electricity consumption. Underlying the growing demand for energy in the country will be a steady increase in GDP, which BMI forecasts average annual growth of 5.0% between 2011 and 2021, together with the continued expansion of the country''s population. By 2016, we predict that Botswana''s net imports will have risen to 3.6TWh.
Key developments for Botswana’s power sector include: South Africa’s energy provider Eskom continues to cut energy exports to Botswana, with a view to reducing supply throughout 2012. With no short-term solution to reduced energy imports available, BMI believes that regular energy outages will have a negative effect on the country’s business environment.
Botswana, Zimbabwe, Zambia and Namibia announced in April 2012 that they had entered into an agreement with the goal of reducing energy consumption in their respective countries.
Energy Minister Ponatshego Kedikilwe stated in April 2012 that Botswana will need 600MW from independent power producers in order to meet domestic energy requirements. The government requires 300MW to be added to the grid in 2015, and an additional 300MW in 2018.
Mozambique BMI View: Mozambique boasts one of Africa’s fastest growing economies, with healthy GDP growth, abundant natural resources and growing energy demand. Recent offshore gas and coal discoveries reinforce Mozambique’s potential for energy exports, although for these to succeed, the government must invest in infrastructure to facilitate operations. Hydroelectricity meets the majority of Mozambique’s domestic demand, and April 2012 saw the government acquire a 7.5% stake in the Cahora Bassa power station from Portugal – with a view to purchasing Portugal’s remaining share within two years. Regaining control has been a matter of national pride, but we note that the move reinforces the role of public sector involvement in energy provision and procurement, rather than moving towards a liberalisation of the energy sector.
In the five years from 2011 to 2016, BMI forecasts that Mozambique’s overall power generation will increase by an annual average of 4.7% to reach 22.3 terawatt hours (TWh), with hydropower contributing to the majority of this growth. Gas-fired power generation capacity will increase – admittedly from a small base – by an average of 9.3% over this five-year period, boosted by the construction of a new 140 megawatts (MW) gas-fired power plant which could begin operations as early as 2013.
Mozambique’s power sector is heavily reliant on hydropower, which, at present, is primarily sourced from the Cahora Bassa Hydroelectric Plant (HCB) in Tete province. The plant produces 2,075MW of power, the majority of which is exported to Eskom in South Africa and Zesa in Zimbabwe – although export volumes have fallen because of outstanding payments. In early 2012, state power utility Electricidade de Moçambique (EDM) stated that it wanted to raise its own share of energy produced from 400MW to 500MW – a move that would lead to a fall in exports. However, there is scope to increase production here, with total capacity estimated to stand at 12 gigawatts (GW). Gas-fired production is also set to increase, with South Africa’s Sasol studying the development of a 140MW plant under a joint venture (JV) with state utility, EDM.
We envisage Mozambique’s net power consumption increasing by an annual average of 8.4% over our 10-year forecast period, from 12.21TWh in 2011 to 27.21TWh by 2021. By 2016, we predict that Mozambique’s power sector will hold net export potential of 1.48TWh, but this will grow to 3.20TWh by 2021.
Key developments in Mozambique’s power sector include: Mozambique now owns a 92.5% stake in the country’s largest hydroelectric plant, Cahora Bassa, after Portugal sold 7.5% of its remaining share to the government for US$42mn, and agreed to hand over its final 7.5% share to Mozambique within two years.
In March 2012, South Africa’s Sasol announced that its feasibility study for a gas-fired power plant in Mozambique was at an advanced stage.
Mozambique has reduced power export volumes from its Cahora Bassa hydroelectric facility to neighbouring Zimbabwe, citing outstanding debt of US$80mn as the reason.
Namibia BMI View: Namibia’s state-owned utility, NamPower, has announced that the country faces a 80 megawatt (MW) power deficit in 2012, and that this will rise to 150MW in 2013 and reach 300MW by 2015. With new large-scale capacity from thermal or hydroelectric power plants not scheduled to become operational until 2016, Namibia has devised a short-term solution to meet its energy needs, one that combines power purchase agreements from neighbouring countries, negotiations with independent power providers and temporary fixes to extend the capacity at existing plants.
While BMI welcomes the government’s transparency over its energy sector, we question how NamPower will fund these proposed solutions, and believe that in the short term at least, the market will be characterised by load dropping.
Between 2011 and 2016, BMI forecasts that Namibia''s overall power generation will increase by an annual average of 59.3%, to reach 6.0 terawatt hours (TWh), although this growth rate is deceptive, as it is not until 2016 that capacity will post a significant increase as new gas-fired power facilities become operational. In order to minimise the effects of an energy deficit, NamPower has announced several short-term measures to meet demand, including rehabilitating the thermal Van Eck power station to extend its lifespan by five years, and installing new turbines at the Ruacana hydroelectric plant to boost capacity. Towards the end of our forecast period, the 800MW gas-fired power plant linked with Namibia''s the Kudu gas field project is expected to become operational by 2016, while Angola and Namibia are discussing the viability of the Baynes hydroelectric power project, which NamPower estimates could cost up to US$1.3bn.
We envisage Namibia''s net power consumption increasing from 3.65TWh in 2011 to 5.25TWh by 2016, signalling an annual average of 7.5% over the period. Following an increase in 2011 real GDP of 3.8%,
BMI forecasts average annual growth of 4.6% between 2011 and 2021. Meanwhile, Namibia''s population is expected to rise from 2.3mn in 2011 to 2.5mn in 2016.
Key developments for Namibia’s power sector this quarter include: • The fourth unit at the Ruacana hydroelectric plant has now been installed, with NamPower beginning commercial operations in March 2012. This new unit increases capacity by 92MW.
• In April 2012, state-owned utility NamPower called for domestic users to cut their electricity consumption by 10% to reduce the prospect of outages and power cuts during the winter, as NamPower predicts that the country will suffer a 80MW shortfall in 2012.
• In April 2012, Namibia entered into an agreement with Botswana, Zambia, and Zimbabwe with a view to improving and controlling energy consumption in these four countries.
Zambia BMI View: Hydroelectric power plants account for almost all of Zambia’s domestic power generation, and even by the end of our forecast period in 2012, BMI calculates that hydroelectric sources of energy will continue to account for over 80% of domestic generation. Hydropower brings with it a series of risks, and a lack of rainfall has caused power cuts and outages in both late 2011 and April 2012 – outages that have negative consequences for Zambia’s energy-intensive mining industry. Of new capacity planned, almost all relates to new and expanded hydroelectric plants, although new coal-fired capacity is under construction by Singapore’s Nava Baharat that aims to produce 300MW by 2014, with a view to doubling capacity in the future. BMI notes that renewable energies play an insignificant role in Zambia’s energy provision, with few government incentives to invest in this sector.
In the five years from 2011 to 2016, BMI forecasts that Zambia''s overall power generation will increase by an annual average of 6.4%, to reach 14.52TWh. Contributing to this growth will be a 3.7% average annual increase in hydropower, boosted by increased capacity at the Kafue Gorge Lower power station as well as at the Kariba North Bank station, amongst others. BMI forecasts that hydropower will continue to be Zambia’s main source of power throughout the forecast period, with oil-fired and coal-fired gradually increasing their contribution to the energy mix. By 2021, we forecast that oil-fired power will account for just 0.6% of total output, and coal-fired will climb to 17.1% of total output. is self-sufficient in all its energy sources with the exception of oil, which is imported primarily from South Africa.
We forecast that Zambia''s net power consumption will increase from 9.28TWh in 2011 to 12.01TWh in 2016, with the mining sector the key driver for demand. Following a forecast increase in 2011 real GDP of 6.5%, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 7.0% between 2011 and 2021. BMI calculates that while Zambia will import 0.73TWh of power from its neighbours in 2011, by the end of our forecast period, Zambia has the potential to be a net electricity exporter.
Key developments for Zambia’s power sector this quarter include: According to Reuters, in March 2012 Nigerian investment bank Africa Finance Corporation and Zambia’s Copperbelt Energy Corporation signed a deal to jointly finance and develop six new hydropower stations.
China’s Sinohydro awarded a US$26.3mn contract to French conglomerate Alstom for the supply of turbines and generators for the Itezhie-Tezhi hydropower project in February 2012.
Zambia’s has committed to boost rural energy provision with the construction of mini-hydro power stations. The first of these, a 1MW capacity hydro power station in the Muchinga Province, is scheduled for completion in April 2012. The project is supported by the UN’s Industrial Development Organisation.
Zimbabwe BMI View: Zimbabwe’s power requirements are met through a combination of domestic coal-fired and hydroelectric power plants and imports, although the unreliability of both sources mean that outages are commonplace, affecting the country’s economic development and increasing operational risks for existing, and potential, investors. With an acute need to increase domestic capacity, the government is keen for independent power providers to invest and this quarter will announce the successful bidders for two power station expansion projects, at the thermal Hwange station and the hydroelectric plant, Kariba South. Renewables play a minor role in energy procurement, and BMI does not expect that they will gain importance over the forecast period.
Between 2011 to 2016, BMI forecasts that Zimbabwe''s overall power generation will increase by an annual average of 14.7%, to reach 16.19 terawatt hours (TWh). The biggest contributor to this increase will be coal-fired power generation, predicted to increase by an annual average of 26.9% over this period as the Hwange thermal power station is expanded, with hydropower generation increasing by a much more modest 3.2% during this five-year forecast period, even despite increased capacity planned for Kariba South hydroelectric plant. This growth will not suffice to give Zimbabwe energetic selfsufficiency, however, and the shortfall will have serious implications for Zimbabwe''s economic development and social stability.
We envisage Zimbabwe''s net power consumption increasing by an annual average of 8.7% over our 10- year forecast period, from an estimated 12.64TWh in 2011 to 28.70TWh by 2021. Underlying the rise in energy consumption will be a steady increase in GDP, together with the continued expansion of Zimbabwe''s population. Following an increase in 2011 real GDP of 9.3%, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 7.2% between 2011 and 2021. Meanwhile, the population is expected to rise from 12.8mn in 2011 to 14.3mn in 2016, increasing to 15.8mn in 2021.
Key developments for Zimbabwe’s power sector this quarter include: Energy Minister Elton Mangoma announced in March 2012 that 11 bidders had been shortlisted to expand the Hwange thermal power station and the Kariba South hydropower plant. The winning bidders are likely to be revealed in Q312.
Outstanding payments for energy imports saw Mozambique cut Zimbabwe’s supply of energy from the Cahora Bassa hydroelectric plant in March 2012.
A 5 megawatt (MW mini hydro power project at Lake Mutirikwi is to be developed by Great Zimbabwe Hydro-Power Company, which is jointly owned by South Africa’s NuPlanet and Zimbabwe’s ZOL, with council approval granted in February 2012. The project is scheduled to begin operations in 2014.
Q3 2012 Report for Southern Africa Power Industry
Whether this promise is fulfilled post-election remains to be seen. BMI forecasts that Angola''s overall power generation will increase by an annual average of 9.7% between 2011 and 2016, to reach 6.76 terawatt hours (TWh). A 10.0% annual average increase in hydropower will spur this growth, and this will continue to be the source of the majority of Angola’s domestic energy production over the forecast period. We envisage Angola''s net power consumption increasing from 3.65TWh in 2011 to 5.78TWh by 2016. A steady increase in GDP will support growth; following real GDP growth of 5.2% in 2011, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 7.8% between 2011 and 2021.
We expect improvements to Angola''s national electricity grid to result in a gradual decline in the percentage of transmission and distribution (T&D) losses; this will fall from around 14.6% in 2011. The presence of oil and gas majors in the country will incentivise the government to improve its electricity infrastructure to meet industry’s requirements. We do not expect Angola to have to import significant quantities of electricity, nor do we expect electricity exports to be substantial.
Key developments in Angola’s power sector this quarter include: Work on a LNG terminal in Soyo has been delayed, with a start date now set for May 2012. The project is funded through a partnership between five oil & gas majors.
In April 2012, President José Eduardo dos Santos stated that by 2016, Angola’s energy supply would be stabilised, with the government earmarking US$16.5bn for energy investments.
Work began on a 10MW thermal power station in Menongue in March 2012, with the US$30- 40mn investment scheduled to begin operations by early 2013.
Botswana BMI View: With almost all of its domestically produced energy sourced from coal-fired power stations, Botswana has a very narrow power base – and as continued outages illustrate, it is not capable of meeting national consumption requirements. In order to raise capacity, the government plans to boost energy production from coal-fired sources with the goal of reaching self-sufficiency and reducing dependence upon unreliable, and expensive, imports from South Africa. Botswana is not the only country to suffer from shortages and in April 2012 it entered into an agreement with Namibia’s NamPower, along with Zimbabwe and Zambia, to improve and control energy consumption in these four countries. In the five years period 2011 to 2016, BMI forecasts that Botswana''s overall power generation will increase by an annual average of 28.4%, to reach 2.0TWh.
We expect all of this growth to come from new or existing coal-fired power plants. Botswana’s government plans to expand its domestic power production – in turn, reducing its dependence upon neighbouring South Africa for energy imports throughout the course of 2012 – by developing new coal-fired power facilities, such as the Mmamabula coal-fired power plant, which is being constructed by Canada''s CIC Energy Corp. There is scope for renewable energy development, solar power in particular; a feasibility for one 200MW solar power project began in late 2011, with its completion expected in September 2012. There are also plans for the introduction of renewable energy Feed-In Tariffs (FITs).
Between 2011 and 2016, we predict that Botswana''s net power consumption will increase from 3.3TWh to 4.6TWh. The mining sector is the most important consumer segment in Botswana in terms of electricity consumption. Underlying the growing demand for energy in the country will be a steady increase in GDP, which BMI forecasts average annual growth of 5.0% between 2011 and 2021, together with the continued expansion of the country''s population. By 2016, we predict that Botswana''s net imports will have risen to 3.6TWh.
Key developments for Botswana’s power sector include: South Africa’s energy provider Eskom continues to cut energy exports to Botswana, with a view to reducing supply throughout 2012. With no short-term solution to reduced energy imports available, BMI believes that regular energy outages will have a negative effect on the country’s business environment.
Botswana, Zimbabwe, Zambia and Namibia announced in April 2012 that they had entered into an agreement with the goal of reducing energy consumption in their respective countries.
Energy Minister Ponatshego Kedikilwe stated in April 2012 that Botswana will need 600MW from independent power producers in order to meet domestic energy requirements. The government requires 300MW to be added to the grid in 2015, and an additional 300MW in 2018.
Mozambique BMI View: Mozambique boasts one of Africa’s fastest growing economies, with healthy GDP growth, abundant natural resources and growing energy demand. Recent offshore gas and coal discoveries reinforce Mozambique’s potential for energy exports, although for these to succeed, the government must invest in infrastructure to facilitate operations. Hydroelectricity meets the majority of Mozambique’s domestic demand, and April 2012 saw the government acquire a 7.5% stake in the Cahora Bassa power station from Portugal – with a view to purchasing Portugal’s remaining share within two years. Regaining control has been a matter of national pride, but we note that the move reinforces the role of public sector involvement in energy provision and procurement, rather than moving towards a liberalisation of the energy sector.
In the five years from 2011 to 2016, BMI forecasts that Mozambique’s overall power generation will increase by an annual average of 4.7% to reach 22.3 terawatt hours (TWh), with hydropower contributing to the majority of this growth. Gas-fired power generation capacity will increase – admittedly from a small base – by an average of 9.3% over this five-year period, boosted by the construction of a new 140 megawatts (MW) gas-fired power plant which could begin operations as early as 2013.
Mozambique’s power sector is heavily reliant on hydropower, which, at present, is primarily sourced from the Cahora Bassa Hydroelectric Plant (HCB) in Tete province. The plant produces 2,075MW of power, the majority of which is exported to Eskom in South Africa and Zesa in Zimbabwe – although export volumes have fallen because of outstanding payments. In early 2012, state power utility Electricidade de Moçambique (EDM) stated that it wanted to raise its own share of energy produced from 400MW to 500MW – a move that would lead to a fall in exports. However, there is scope to increase production here, with total capacity estimated to stand at 12 gigawatts (GW). Gas-fired production is also set to increase, with South Africa’s Sasol studying the development of a 140MW plant under a joint venture (JV) with state utility, EDM.
We envisage Mozambique’s net power consumption increasing by an annual average of 8.4% over our 10-year forecast period, from 12.21TWh in 2011 to 27.21TWh by 2021. By 2016, we predict that Mozambique’s power sector will hold net export potential of 1.48TWh, but this will grow to 3.20TWh by 2021.
Key developments in Mozambique’s power sector include: Mozambique now owns a 92.5% stake in the country’s largest hydroelectric plant, Cahora Bassa, after Portugal sold 7.5% of its remaining share to the government for US$42mn, and agreed to hand over its final 7.5% share to Mozambique within two years.
In March 2012, South Africa’s Sasol announced that its feasibility study for a gas-fired power plant in Mozambique was at an advanced stage.
Mozambique has reduced power export volumes from its Cahora Bassa hydroelectric facility to neighbouring Zimbabwe, citing outstanding debt of US$80mn as the reason.
Namibia BMI View: Namibia’s state-owned utility, NamPower, has announced that the country faces a 80 megawatt (MW) power deficit in 2012, and that this will rise to 150MW in 2013 and reach 300MW by 2015. With new large-scale capacity from thermal or hydroelectric power plants not scheduled to become operational until 2016, Namibia has devised a short-term solution to meet its energy needs, one that combines power purchase agreements from neighbouring countries, negotiations with independent power providers and temporary fixes to extend the capacity at existing plants.
While BMI welcomes the government’s transparency over its energy sector, we question how NamPower will fund these proposed solutions, and believe that in the short term at least, the market will be characterised by load dropping.
Between 2011 and 2016, BMI forecasts that Namibia''s overall power generation will increase by an annual average of 59.3%, to reach 6.0 terawatt hours (TWh), although this growth rate is deceptive, as it is not until 2016 that capacity will post a significant increase as new gas-fired power facilities become operational. In order to minimise the effects of an energy deficit, NamPower has announced several short-term measures to meet demand, including rehabilitating the thermal Van Eck power station to extend its lifespan by five years, and installing new turbines at the Ruacana hydroelectric plant to boost capacity. Towards the end of our forecast period, the 800MW gas-fired power plant linked with Namibia''s the Kudu gas field project is expected to become operational by 2016, while Angola and Namibia are discussing the viability of the Baynes hydroelectric power project, which NamPower estimates could cost up to US$1.3bn.
We envisage Namibia''s net power consumption increasing from 3.65TWh in 2011 to 5.25TWh by 2016, signalling an annual average of 7.5% over the period. Following an increase in 2011 real GDP of 3.8%,
BMI forecasts average annual growth of 4.6% between 2011 and 2021. Meanwhile, Namibia''s population is expected to rise from 2.3mn in 2011 to 2.5mn in 2016.
Key developments for Namibia’s power sector this quarter include: • The fourth unit at the Ruacana hydroelectric plant has now been installed, with NamPower beginning commercial operations in March 2012. This new unit increases capacity by 92MW.
• In April 2012, state-owned utility NamPower called for domestic users to cut their electricity consumption by 10% to reduce the prospect of outages and power cuts during the winter, as NamPower predicts that the country will suffer a 80MW shortfall in 2012.
• In April 2012, Namibia entered into an agreement with Botswana, Zambia, and Zimbabwe with a view to improving and controlling energy consumption in these four countries.
Zambia BMI View: Hydroelectric power plants account for almost all of Zambia’s domestic power generation, and even by the end of our forecast period in 2012, BMI calculates that hydroelectric sources of energy will continue to account for over 80% of domestic generation. Hydropower brings with it a series of risks, and a lack of rainfall has caused power cuts and outages in both late 2011 and April 2012 – outages that have negative consequences for Zambia’s energy-intensive mining industry. Of new capacity planned, almost all relates to new and expanded hydroelectric plants, although new coal-fired capacity is under construction by Singapore’s Nava Baharat that aims to produce 300MW by 2014, with a view to doubling capacity in the future. BMI notes that renewable energies play an insignificant role in Zambia’s energy provision, with few government incentives to invest in this sector.
In the five years from 2011 to 2016, BMI forecasts that Zambia''s overall power generation will increase by an annual average of 6.4%, to reach 14.52TWh. Contributing to this growth will be a 3.7% average annual increase in hydropower, boosted by increased capacity at the Kafue Gorge Lower power station as well as at the Kariba North Bank station, amongst others. BMI forecasts that hydropower will continue to be Zambia’s main source of power throughout the forecast period, with oil-fired and coal-fired gradually increasing their contribution to the energy mix. By 2021, we forecast that oil-fired power will account for just 0.6% of total output, and coal-fired will climb to 17.1% of total output. is self-sufficient in all its energy sources with the exception of oil, which is imported primarily from South Africa.
We forecast that Zambia''s net power consumption will increase from 9.28TWh in 2011 to 12.01TWh in 2016, with the mining sector the key driver for demand. Following a forecast increase in 2011 real GDP of 6.5%, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 7.0% between 2011 and 2021. BMI calculates that while Zambia will import 0.73TWh of power from its neighbours in 2011, by the end of our forecast period, Zambia has the potential to be a net electricity exporter.
Key developments for Zambia’s power sector this quarter include: According to Reuters, in March 2012 Nigerian investment bank Africa Finance Corporation and Zambia’s Copperbelt Energy Corporation signed a deal to jointly finance and develop six new hydropower stations.
China’s Sinohydro awarded a US$26.3mn contract to French conglomerate Alstom for the supply of turbines and generators for the Itezhie-Tezhi hydropower project in February 2012.
Zambia’s has committed to boost rural energy provision with the construction of mini-hydro power stations. The first of these, a 1MW capacity hydro power station in the Muchinga Province, is scheduled for completion in April 2012. The project is supported by the UN’s Industrial Development Organisation.
Zimbabwe BMI View: Zimbabwe’s power requirements are met through a combination of domestic coal-fired and hydroelectric power plants and imports, although the unreliability of both sources mean that outages are commonplace, affecting the country’s economic development and increasing operational risks for existing, and potential, investors. With an acute need to increase domestic capacity, the government is keen for independent power providers to invest and this quarter will announce the successful bidders for two power station expansion projects, at the thermal Hwange station and the hydroelectric plant, Kariba South. Renewables play a minor role in energy procurement, and BMI does not expect that they will gain importance over the forecast period.
Between 2011 to 2016, BMI forecasts that Zimbabwe''s overall power generation will increase by an annual average of 14.7%, to reach 16.19 terawatt hours (TWh). The biggest contributor to this increase will be coal-fired power generation, predicted to increase by an annual average of 26.9% over this period as the Hwange thermal power station is expanded, with hydropower generation increasing by a much more modest 3.2% during this five-year forecast period, even despite increased capacity planned for Kariba South hydroelectric plant. This growth will not suffice to give Zimbabwe energetic selfsufficiency, however, and the shortfall will have serious implications for Zimbabwe''s economic development and social stability.
We envisage Zimbabwe''s net power consumption increasing by an annual average of 8.7% over our 10- year forecast period, from an estimated 12.64TWh in 2011 to 28.70TWh by 2021. Underlying the rise in energy consumption will be a steady increase in GDP, together with the continued expansion of Zimbabwe''s population. Following an increase in 2011 real GDP of 9.3%, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 7.2% between 2011 and 2021. Meanwhile, the population is expected to rise from 12.8mn in 2011 to 14.3mn in 2016, increasing to 15.8mn in 2021.
Key developments for Zimbabwe’s power sector this quarter include: Energy Minister Elton Mangoma announced in March 2012 that 11 bidders had been shortlisted to expand the Hwange thermal power station and the Kariba South hydropower plant. The winning bidders are likely to be revealed in Q312.
Outstanding payments for energy imports saw Mozambique cut Zimbabwe’s supply of energy from the Cahora Bassa hydroelectric plant in March 2012.
A 5 megawatt (MW mini hydro power project at Lake Mutirikwi is to be developed by Great Zimbabwe Hydro-Power Company, which is jointly owned by South Africa’s NuPlanet and Zimbabwe’s ZOL, with council approval granted in February 2012. The project is scheduled to begin operations in 2014.
Q3 2012 Report for Southern Africa Power Industry
Published: June 2012 No. of Pages: 131 Price: US $ 1175
Table of Contents
Industry Business Environment Overview 7
Angola . 13
SWOT Analysis ... 13
Angola Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare SWOT . 13
BMI Industry View .. 13
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings 15
Rewards ... 15
Risks 15
Market Summary 17
Regulatory Regime . 18
Intellectual Property Issues . 18
Pricing And Reimbursement 18
Regulatory Developments 19
Epidemiology ... 19
Clinical Trials Sector ... 20
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 22
Overall Market Forecast.. 22
Key Growth Factors – Industry 24
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic ... 27
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 31
Competitive Landscape . 32
Company Developments... 32
Botswana 34
BMI Industry View .. 34
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings 36
Rewards ... 36
Risks 36
Market Summary 38
Regulatory Regime . 41
Intellectual Property Issues . 41
Manufacturing Pharmaceuticals In Botswana . 42
Research & Development 43
Pharmacovigilance .. 44
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 46
Overall Market Forecast.. 46
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, 2008-2016 47
Key Growth Factors – Industry 48
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic ... 53
Mozambique 58
SWOT Analysis ... 58
Mozambique Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare SWOT 58
BMI Industry View .. 58
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings 60
Rewards ... 60
Risks 60
Market Summary 62
Regulatory Regime . 63
Intellectual Property Issues . 63
Pricing And Reimbursement 63
Regulatory Developments 64
Epidemiology ... 64
Clinical Trials Sector ... 65
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 66
Overall Market Forecast.. 66
Key Growth Factors – Industry 68
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic ... 71
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 76
Competitive Landscape . 78
Company Developments... 78
Namibia 79
BMI Industry View .. 79
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings 81
Rewards ... 81
Risks 81
Market Summary 82
Regulatory Regime . 84
Zambia . 85
BMI Industry View .. 85
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings 87
Rewards ... 87
Risks 87
Market Summary 89
Zambia .. 89
Government Healthcare Reform .. 90
Regulatory Regime . 97
Zambia .. 97
Pharmacovigilance (PV) .100
Industry Forecast Scenario . 103
Namibia ...103
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast ...103
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomics .105
Namibia – Economic Activity ..107
Healthcare Market Forecast ...108
Industry Trends & Developments ... 110
Epidemiology 112
Zambia .113
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast.113
Healthcare Market Forecast ...115
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic .. 120
Zambia - Economic Activity 122
Company Profiles . 123
Angola .123
Nova Angomédica ...123
Botswana .125
Gemi Pharmacure ...125
Mozambique .126
Sociedade Moçambicana de Medicamentos (SMM) 126
Demographic Outlook – Botswana . 130
Demographic Outlook – Mozambique 133
Mozambique''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) ..134
Mozambique''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) .135
Mozambique''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 ..136
Mozambique''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 ...136
Demographic Outlook - Namibia 137
Namibia''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) .138
Namibia''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 139
Namibia''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 140
Namibia''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 ..140
Demographic Outlook - Zambia .. 141
Glossary 144
BMI Methodology . 146
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts 146
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology ...147
Ratings Overview 147
Weighting 149
Sources ...149Table: Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Q312 Risk/Reward Ratings . 8
Angola . 13
SWOT Analysis ... 13
Angola Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare SWOT . 13
BMI Industry View .. 13
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings 15
Rewards ... 15
Risks 15
Market Summary 17
Regulatory Regime . 18
Intellectual Property Issues . 18
Pricing And Reimbursement 18
Regulatory Developments 19
Epidemiology ... 19
Clinical Trials Sector ... 20
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 22
Overall Market Forecast.. 22
Key Growth Factors – Industry 24
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic ... 27
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 31
Competitive Landscape . 32
Company Developments... 32
Botswana 34
BMI Industry View .. 34
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings 36
Rewards ... 36
Risks 36
Market Summary 38
Regulatory Regime . 41
Intellectual Property Issues . 41
Manufacturing Pharmaceuticals In Botswana . 42
Research & Development 43
Pharmacovigilance .. 44
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 46
Overall Market Forecast.. 46
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, 2008-2016 47
Key Growth Factors – Industry 48
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic ... 53
Mozambique 58
SWOT Analysis ... 58
Mozambique Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare SWOT 58
BMI Industry View .. 58
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings 60
Rewards ... 60
Risks 60
Market Summary 62
Regulatory Regime . 63
Intellectual Property Issues . 63
Pricing And Reimbursement 63
Regulatory Developments 64
Epidemiology ... 64
Clinical Trials Sector ... 65
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 66
Overall Market Forecast.. 66
Key Growth Factors – Industry 68
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic ... 71
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 76
Competitive Landscape . 78
Company Developments... 78
Namibia 79
BMI Industry View .. 79
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings 81
Rewards ... 81
Risks 81
Market Summary 82
Regulatory Regime . 84
Zambia . 85
BMI Industry View .. 85
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings 87
Rewards ... 87
Risks 87
Market Summary 89
Zambia .. 89
Government Healthcare Reform .. 90
Regulatory Regime . 97
Zambia .. 97
Pharmacovigilance (PV) .100
Industry Forecast Scenario . 103
Namibia ...103
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast ...103
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomics .105
Namibia – Economic Activity ..107
Healthcare Market Forecast ...108
Industry Trends & Developments ... 110
Epidemiology 112
Zambia .113
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast.113
Healthcare Market Forecast ...115
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic .. 120
Zambia - Economic Activity 122
Company Profiles . 123
Angola .123
Nova Angomédica ...123
Botswana .125
Gemi Pharmacure ...125
Mozambique .126
Sociedade Moçambicana de Medicamentos (SMM) 126
Demographic Outlook – Botswana . 130
Demographic Outlook – Mozambique 133
Mozambique''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) ..134
Mozambique''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) .135
Mozambique''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 ..136
Mozambique''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 ...136
Demographic Outlook - Namibia 137
Namibia''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) .138
Namibia''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 139
Namibia''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 140
Namibia''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 ..140
Demographic Outlook - Zambia .. 141
Glossary 144
BMI Methodology . 146
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts 146
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology ...147
Ratings Overview 147
Weighting 149
Sources ...149Table: Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Q312 Risk/Reward Ratings . 8
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