Turkey Shipping Report Q2 2012

Throughput at the Port of Ambarli, one of Turkey's largest ports, is set to decrease in terms of tonnage in 2012, while its container volumes are to slow due to the macroeconomic outlook, with real GDP forecast to slow and Turkey's export sector heavily exposed to Europe. Over the medium term we project that stronger growth will resume at the Port of Ambarli. The Port of Petkim has the potential to develop into a major container facility after APM Terminals takes over the operation of the port's container terminal and general cargo facilities.

Headline Industry Data

• 2012 Port of Ambarli general and liquid bulk cargo tonnage throughput forecast to decrease 4%, over the medium term we project a 25% increase.
• 2012 Port of Ambarli container throughput forecast to grow 5%, over the medium term we project a 41% increase.
• 2012 total trade growth forecast at 5.6%. 

Key Industry Trends APMT Drives EM Strategy Forward With Turkey Focus
APM Terminals (APMT) is continuing its emerging Europe expansion strategy and is breaking into Turkey. BMI believes this to be a wise move by the port operator, as emerging markets are the area of interest to the container shipping community and Turkey, with its young population, offers medium- to long-term consumer demand growth.

Infrastructure Fund To Invest In Iskenderun
Looking for stable revenue streams in a newly privatised sector, infrastructure fund InfraMed has partnered with Turkish industrial conglomerate Limak in an attempt to develop the Port of Iskenderun. However, we highlight downside risks to this venture, primarily concerning the short-term bearish economic climate and the project's location.

Azeri Oil Shipments Via Ceyhan Decrease
The State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) has released data on Azeri oil exports via the Baku- Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) export pipeline. A total of 4.82mn tonnes of oil were shipped from Turkey's Ceyhan Port in January-February 2012, a decrease of 12% on the same period of 2011, when 5.5mn tonnes of oil were shipped.

Risks To Outlook
The base for decline at the country's ports stems from BMI's wary outlook for the Turkish economy. Our 2012 real GDP growth forecast for Turkey is just 1.9%, compared with 2011's growth of 8.5%. We expect a deterioration in domestic demand growth this year, which, together with the impact of the crisis in the eurozone - Germany, France, the UK and Italy are Turkey's top four export destinations - would negatively affect throughput at the country's ports. Downside risks to our forecasts are presented by the Arab Spring uprisings that caused supply chain problems and the uncertainty that remains in the region, as well as growing tensions between Turkey and Israel.

Q2 2012 Report of Turkey Shipping Industry

Published: June 2012            No. of Pages: 124             Price: US $ 1175                                   

 

Table of Contens

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis . 7
Turkey Shipping SWOT .. 7
Turkey Political SWOT . 7
Turkey Economic SWOT ... 8
Turkey Business Environment SWOT 8
Global Overview – Container Shipping .. 9
Summary – Carriers Face Threats Of Declining Demand And Overcapacity 9
Overcapacity And Declining Demand To Collide, Asia-Europe Most Exposed ... 10
Liner Strategies Indicate Carriers Preparing For The Worst .. 14
What Is Wan Hai Lines Doing Right? .. 19
Asia-Europe Landbridge To Take Market Share, But Not Usurp Shipping .. 23
Container Shipping Must Meet Green Challenge Now 27
Global Overview – Dry Bulk Shipping .. 34
Summary – Chinese Slowdown Threatens Sector Already In Troubled Waters ... 34
Possibility Of Chinese Slowdown Presents Real Risk To Dry Bulk Shipping ... 35
One Vale Mega-Vessel Calls To China, Remains Unclear If Rest Will Follow 38
Dry Bulk Lines Suffering; Another Chinese Firm Withholds Charter Payments .. 43
Oversized Dry Bulk Fleet To Continue Growing . 46
Global Overview – Liquid Bulk Shipping . 49
Summary – Liquid Bulk Survival Tactics Deployed In Force In 2012 .. 49
2012 Outlook For Crude Oil Tankers Remains Poor ... 50
Frontline 2012 To Be Consolidating Force In Supertanker Sector .. 55
Industry Trends And Developments 62
Container Shipping Market Overview .. 66
Industry Forecast ... 70
Port Of Ambarli ... 70
Table: Major Port Data – Throughput, 2009-2016.. 71
Trade ... 72
Table: Trade Overview, 2009-2016 . 72
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2009-2016 (US$mn and % change y-o-y) . 73
Table: Turkey's Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)... 74
Table: Turkey's Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)... 74
Company Profiles ... 75
Turkon Line . 75
Maersk Line . 76
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) ... 83
CMA CGM ... 87
COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON).. 91
Hapag-Lloyd 96
APL .101
Evergreen Line ...107
China Shipping Container Line (CSCL) .111
Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations) 115
Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL) (Container).119Dry Bulk Lines Suffering; Another Chinese Firm Withholds Charter Payments . 43
Table: Major Port Data – Throughput, 2009-2016. 71
Table: Trade Overview, 2009-2016 . 72

Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2009-2016 (US$mn and % change y-o-y) . 73

Table: Turkey's Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn). 74
Table: Turkey's Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn). 74