United States Tourism Report Q3 2012

In 2009, the US had 54.9mn arrivals, 23.8mn of which were from overseas. The number of arrivals is calculated to have increased to 55.8mn in 2010 and 58.0mn in 2011. In 2012, we forecast arrivals numbers to reach 60.4mn and to rise to 70.6mn by 2016. The majority of arrivals to the US come to the country for leisure purposes, with 11.9mn estimated in 2011. In 2012, an increase in leisure arrivals is forecast to 12.5mn and this is expected to rise to 14.9mn by 2016.

Once in the US there are many different attractions for tourists. The National Park System alone comprises 392 distinct areas covering more than 84mn acres. These areas include national parks, monuments battlefields, historical parks, military parks, rivers, trails and the White House. In 2011 according to the National Park Service, 278.9mn recreational visitors went to the national parks. The country has 20 UNESCO World Heritage Sites, eight cultural and 12 natural. Aside from its natural beauty and the cultural sights, the US is home to some of the world’s most famous cities, from New York to Los Angeles. There is plenty to see and do for every type of visitor and the country’s large size and different climates mean that any time of year is a good time to visit.

The top three regions for inbound tourism to the US are North America, Latin America and Europe. Although North America and Latin America have swapped back and forth between first and second position in previous years, BMI forecasts that North America will be the leading region through to 2016. Unsurprisingly, the two leading tourism markets for the US are Canada and Mexico, with the UK in third place. In 2012, arrivals from Canada, Mexico and the UK are forecast to total 19.9mn, 15.2mn and 4.2mn respectively.

The cruise industry is a major part of the US hospitality market. In 2012, it is forecast that 10.0mn people will embark on cruises from US ports, climbing to 12.2mn by 2016. We forecast that 14.5mn people will go on cruises worldwide in 2012, which shows how far ahead the US is as the industry leader. That said, towards the end of our forecast period the US will lose some of its market share, with the global number of passengers in 2016 forecast to reach 17.6mn.

Expenditure by US residents abroad is also forecast to increase over our forecast period. In 2012, US$121.0mn is expected to be spent by US residents abroad and BMI forecasts this to grow to US$144.7mn by 2016. In Mexico, US visitors are forecast to spend US$12.9mn in 2012, increasing to US$15.5mn by 2016, while in the UK they are forecast to spend US$11.6mn in 2012, going up to US$12.8mn by 2016. Expenditure in Canada is forecast to increase from US$8.1mn in 2012 to US$8.7mn in 2016.

United States Tourism Report Q3 2012

Published: May 2012         No. of Pages: 43         Price: US $ 1175 




Table of Contents

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis 6
US Tourism SWOT . 6
US Political SWOT 6
US Economic SWOT .. 7
US Business Environment SWOT ... 7
Industry Forecast Scenario 8
Arrivals ... 8
Table: Arrivals, 2009-2016 (‘000) . 8
Expenditure ... 10
Table: Travel And Tourism Expenditure, 2009-2016 ... 10
Inbound Tourism ... 13
Table: Inbound Tourism, 2009-2016 13
Outbound Tourism 14
Table: Outbound Tourism, 2009-2016 . 14
Table: Expenditure By US Residents Abroad, 2009-2016 15
Domestic Tourism . 16
Table: Domestic Travel Data, 2009-2016(‘000) .. 16
Market Overview – Travel . 18
Commercial Airlines . 18
Table: Oil Price Forecasts (US$/bbl) .. 19
Market Overview – Hospitality .. 26
Hotels 26
Cruises .. 27
Table: Cruise Industry Data, 2009-2016 . 28
Security Risk Analysis .. 29
Table: Developed States Security Risk Ratings (scores out of 100, with 100 the best) . 29
Table: Developed States Vulnerability To Terrorism Index . 30
US Security Risk Ratings ... 30
Global Assumptions .. 33
Table: Global Assumptions, 2011-2016 ... 33
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, % change y-o-y 34
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 ... 34
Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 . 35
Developed States .. 35
Table: Developed States, Real GDP Growth Forecast, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) . 36
Emerging Markets 36
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth Forecast, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) ... 37
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2012-2013 (%) .. 38
Company Profiles .. 39
Carnival Corporation .. 39
Marriott International .. 39
United Continental Holdings ... 40
Wyndham Hotel Group 40
BMI Methodology ... 41
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .. 41
Tourism Industry .. 41
Sources 42Table: Arrivals, 2009-2016 (‘000) . 8
Table: Travel And Tourism Expenditure, 2009-2016 . 10
Table: Inbound Tourism, 2009-2016 . 13
Table: Outbound Tourism, 2009-2016 . 14
Table: Expenditure By US Residents Abroad, 2009-2016 . 15
Table: Domestic Travel Data, 2009-2016(‘000) . 16
Table: Oil Price Forecasts (US$/bbl) . 19
Table: Cruise Industry Data, 2009-2016 . 28
Table: Developed States Security Risk Ratings (scores out of 100, with 100 the best) . 29
Table: Developed States Vulnerability To Terrorism Index . 30
Table: Global Assumptions, 2011-2016 . 33
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, % change y-o-y . 34
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 . 34
Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 . 35
Table: Developed States, Real GDP Growth Forecast, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) . 36
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth Forecast, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) . 37
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2012-2013 (%) . 38