Canada Defence and Security Report Q3 2012

Canada Defence & Security Report for Q3 2012 examines Canada''s strategic interests, defence posture and defence procurement plans. In terms of the country''s strategic interests, the report discusses Canada''s relationships with the United States, Europe, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and the wider world. The country''s defence posture is examined via a discussion of its doctrines and the orders of battle of its navy, army and air force. The report also presents the country''s current, near- and medium-term defence procurement plans including ongoing programmes, scheduled acquisitions and long-term aspirations. Essentially, the report seeks to ascertain the extent to which the country''s strategic interests can be met with its existing and future defence capabilities. The report makes several key findings: As regarding Canada''s defence posture, it posits that the country is adopting an expeditionary mindset as regards the deployment of military force around the world. This is underscored by its participation in several recent ''out of area'' operations plus defence agreements that it has concluded with a number of countries. Another key finding is the leading role that Canada plays in the global defence industry as an arms exporter. The country is also a leading arms importer, although much of its materiel is sourced from American suppliers. Other challenges facing Canada''s defence community discussed by the report include the continuing budgetary pressures facing the country''s armed forces. Furthermore, the report argues that Canada''s procurement of the Lockheed Martin F-35A Lightning-II Joint Strike Fighter continues to remain controversial with Ottawa occasionally exclaiming disquiet regarding the programmes'' costs. Since the previous quarter’s BMI Canada Defence and Security Report, a number of additions have been made. These include discussions on the following subjects:

• The controversy surrounding the Royal Canadian Air Force''s plans to procure the F-35. 
• Plans by the Canadian Department of National Defence to procure an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) to perform surveillance over Canada''s arctic regions. 
• An initiative to reorganise and reform the high-level command of the Canadian Army. 
• An initiative to procure new lead-in jet training aircraft, and accompanying training infrastructure for the Royal Canadian Air Force.

Published: July 2012                        No. of Pages:56                      Price: US $ 1175

   

Canada Defence & Security

Table of Contents

Executive Summary 

SWOT Analysis 

Canada Political SWOT . 

Canada Economic SWOT .
Global Political Outlook 

Major Risks Looming In 2012-2013 

Global Flashpoints: Eurozone, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, Korean Peninsula 

Table: Election Timetable, Q212-Q113 . 

Wild Cards To Watch 

Security Risk Analysis 

Table: Developed States Security Risk Ratings (scores out of 100, with 100 the best)

Table: Developed States Vulnerability To Terrorism Index (scores out of 100, with 100 the best) 

Political Overview . 

Domestic Politics 

With Opposition Regrouping, Conservatives Getting Their Way 

Long-Term Political Outlook 

Strong Foundation, But Some Challenges From Within . 

Security Overview 

Internal Security Situation . 

Security Developments .
External Security Situation
Armed Forces And Government Spending .
Armed Forces
International Deployments .
Table: Canada’s Foreign Deployments .
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
Arms Trade Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Procurement Trends And Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario .
Armed Forces
Table: Canada’s Armed Forces, 2000-2004 (’000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
Table: Canada’s Availability Of Manpower For Military Services, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)
Government Expenditure
Table: Canada’s Government Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016
Table: Canada’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
Defence Trade
Table: Canada’s Defence Exports, 2009-2016 (US$mn and % change y-o-y)
Canada Defence & Security Q3 2012
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Table: Canada’s Defence Imports, 2009-2016 (US$mn and % change y-o-y)
Table: Canada’s Defence Trade Balance, 2009-2016 (US$mn and % change y-o-y) .
Macroeconomic Forecast .
Slowdown As Households Retrench
Table: Canada – GDP By Expenditure, 2008-2016 (Real Growth %)
Table: Canada – GDP Contribution To Growth, 2008-2016
Table: Canada – Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts, 2014-2021
Company Profiles .
CAE .
Lockheed Martin
L-3 Communications
Raytheon Canada Limited
BMI Methodology .
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
Sources . Table: Election Timetable QQ
Table: Developed States Security Risk Ratings (scores out of with the best)
Table: Developed States Vulnerability To Terrorism Index (scores out of with the best)
Table: Canada’s Foreign Deployments
Table: Canada’s Armed Forces (’ personnel unless otherwise stated)
Table: Canada’s Availability Of Manpower For Military Services (aged unless otherwise stated)
Table: Canada’s Government Defence Expenditure
Table: Canada’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP (US$mn)
Table: Canada’s Defence Exports (US$mn and % change yoy)
Table: Canada’s Defence Imports (US$mn and % change yoy)
Table: Canada’s Defence Trade Balance (US$mn and % change yoy)
Table: Canada – GDP By Expenditure (Real Growth %)
Table: Canada – GDP Contribution To Growth
Table: Canada – LongTerm Macroeconomic Forecasts