The outlook for the French autos industry has changed for the worse,
thanks to a sharp 23.5% year-onyear (y-o-y) decline in new car sales to
197,033 units during Q112 (according to estimates from the country''s
autos association CCFA). The broader slowdown in the market, coupled
with the poor performance of the domestic brands, has prompted BMI to
revise down its forecasts for domestic sales and production in the
market for 2012.
We are currently forecasting a nearly 8% y-o-y contraction in vehicles sales, to 2.48mn units during 2012, which will be followed by a lacklustre growth averaging 2.5% y-o-y between 2013 and 2016, as consumers will be cautious about making big-ticket purchases. Meanwhile, rising vehicle ownership costs will prove to be a further discouragement for new vehicle purchases. Total vehicle sales growth will therefore reach early 2.74mn units in 2016.
In terms of production, we forecast a 1.5% y-o-y contraction, mainly owing to the domestic demand conditions. Both PSA and Renault have seen their vehicle sales and market shares decline during Q112 and we expect this trend to prompt the carmakers to limit their production. Over the medium to long term, we believe that the pressure to improve finances will push firms to move production to low-cost bases outside their costly home markets. We expect production levels to reach nearly 2.37mn units in 2016, still considerably lower than the pre-crisis levels of over 3mn units produced until 2007.
Pressure to improve the finances prompted PSA Peugeot Citroën to announce the creation of a global alliance with US-based General Motor Company (GM), in March 2012, to help them save some US$2bn a year within the next five years and make way for the launch of vehicles on a common platform from 2016. BMI, however, remains unimpressed by the agreement as the so-called ''long-term and broad-scale global strategic alliance'' has failed to get to the very root of the carmakers'' problems in Europe - underutilised capacity and the consequent losses in their European operations.
We also expect French companies to increasingly eye for growth in emerging markets as a way to offset the declines in Europe. The Renault-Nissan Alliance is already looking to acquire a majority stake in Russian carmaker AvtoVAZ which will help it bag significant gains in Russia, where we believe the overall market will grow around 45% between 2011 and 2015. Meanwhile, Renault Trucks (RT), is stepping up its dealership network in Eastern European, African, Middle Eastern and Latin American markets to reduce the division''s excessive reliance on Western European markets. On the other hand, parts supplier Valeo plans to allocate 60% of its investment to emerging markets, including China and India, to strengthen its presence, as a part of its broader target to double its sales, to EUR15bn, by 2020.
France Autos Report Q3 2012
Published: June 2012 No. of Pages: 71 Price: 1175
Table of Contents
We are currently forecasting a nearly 8% y-o-y contraction in vehicles sales, to 2.48mn units during 2012, which will be followed by a lacklustre growth averaging 2.5% y-o-y between 2013 and 2016, as consumers will be cautious about making big-ticket purchases. Meanwhile, rising vehicle ownership costs will prove to be a further discouragement for new vehicle purchases. Total vehicle sales growth will therefore reach early 2.74mn units in 2016.
In terms of production, we forecast a 1.5% y-o-y contraction, mainly owing to the domestic demand conditions. Both PSA and Renault have seen their vehicle sales and market shares decline during Q112 and we expect this trend to prompt the carmakers to limit their production. Over the medium to long term, we believe that the pressure to improve finances will push firms to move production to low-cost bases outside their costly home markets. We expect production levels to reach nearly 2.37mn units in 2016, still considerably lower than the pre-crisis levels of over 3mn units produced until 2007.
Pressure to improve the finances prompted PSA Peugeot Citroën to announce the creation of a global alliance with US-based General Motor Company (GM), in March 2012, to help them save some US$2bn a year within the next five years and make way for the launch of vehicles on a common platform from 2016. BMI, however, remains unimpressed by the agreement as the so-called ''long-term and broad-scale global strategic alliance'' has failed to get to the very root of the carmakers'' problems in Europe - underutilised capacity and the consequent losses in their European operations.
We also expect French companies to increasingly eye for growth in emerging markets as a way to offset the declines in Europe. The Renault-Nissan Alliance is already looking to acquire a majority stake in Russian carmaker AvtoVAZ which will help it bag significant gains in Russia, where we believe the overall market will grow around 45% between 2011 and 2015. Meanwhile, Renault Trucks (RT), is stepping up its dealership network in Eastern European, African, Middle Eastern and Latin American markets to reduce the division''s excessive reliance on Western European markets. On the other hand, parts supplier Valeo plans to allocate 60% of its investment to emerging markets, including China and India, to strengthen its presence, as a part of its broader target to double its sales, to EUR15bn, by 2020.
France Autos Report Q3 2012
Published: June 2012 No. of Pages: 71 Price: 1175
Table of Contents
SWOT Analysis 6
France Autos Industry SWOT 6
France Political SWOTs 7
France Economic SWOTs 7
France Business Environment SWOTs 8
Global Overview . 9
Global Autos Update: End Of First Quarter Brings Both Positive And Negative Revisions As Key Trends . 9
Table: Passenger Car Sales (Units), Jan-March 2012. 9
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings 12
Poor Show From Western Europe Hurts Region''s Score In BMI Ratings 12
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings For Autos In Europe . 16
Regional Overview 17
Audi''s Ducati Purchase: Rivalry Wins Over Strategy . 17
Macroeconomic Outlook 21
Table: France - Economic Activity 23
Industry Forecast . 24
Table: France Autos Sales, 2010-2016 24
Production 26
Table: France Autos Production, 2010-2016 26
Table: France Autos Trade, 2010-2016 27
Market Overview 27
Table: France - Domestic Production By Brand, 2011 (Cbus) 28
Industry News 30
French Probe Could Hit Renault And PSA Profitability . 30
Sales & Financial Performance Of French Carmakers, 2011 . 31
Passenger Cars 32
Table: France Passenger Cars Segment - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016 32
Key Players 34
Table: France - New Car Market By Brand, 2011 . 34
Company News . 35
PSA Peugeot Citroen . 35
Table: PSA Peugeot Citroen Production Partnerships 37
Renault 39
Commercial Vehicles 42
Table: France Commercial Vehicle Segment - Historical Data And Forecasts . 42
Segment Trends . 44
Commercial Vehicles To Contract In 2012 Amid Ongoing Economic Uncertainty . 44
Key Players 45
Table: France: Light Vehicle* Sales By Manufacturer 46
Table: France - Heavy Commercial Vehicle* Registrations 46
Company News . 47
Picking BMI''s Favourites 48
Motorcycles 50
Table: France Motorcycle Segment -- Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016 50
No Recovery In Sight For Motorcycles Segment 50
Crisis Or Change Of Preference? 50
Regulatory Costs 51
Company News . 52
Suppliers 53
Key Players 53
Company News . 54
Company Profiles . 57
PSA Peugeot Citroën . 57
Renault 59
Faurecia 61
Valeo 62
Demographic Data 64
Table: France''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) . 65
Table: France''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 65
Table: France''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 66
Table: France''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . 67
BMI Methodology . 68
How We Generate Our Forecasting Model 68
Sources 69
Historical Data & Forecasts 69Table: Passenger Car Sales (Units), Jan-March 2012. 9
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings For Autos In Europe . 16
Table: France - Economic Activity . 23
Table: France Autos Sales, 2010-2016 . 24
Table: France Autos Production, 2010-2016 . 26
Table: France Autos Trade, 2010-2016 . 27
Table: France - Domestic Production By Brand, 2011 (Cbus) . 28
Table: France Passenger Cars Segment - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016 . 32
Table: France - New Car Market By Brand, 2011 . 34
Table: PSA Peugeot Citroen Production Partnerships . 37
Table: France Commercial Vehicle Segment - Historical Data And Forecasts . 42
Table: France: Light Vehicle* Sales By Manufacturer . 46
Table: France - Heavy Commercial Vehicle* Registrations . 46
Table: France Motorcycle Segment -- Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016 . 50
Table: France''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) . 65
Table: France''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 65
Table: France''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . 66
Table: France''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . 67
France Autos Industry SWOT 6
France Political SWOTs 7
France Economic SWOTs 7
France Business Environment SWOTs 8
Global Overview . 9
Global Autos Update: End Of First Quarter Brings Both Positive And Negative Revisions As Key Trends . 9
Table: Passenger Car Sales (Units), Jan-March 2012. 9
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings 12
Poor Show From Western Europe Hurts Region''s Score In BMI Ratings 12
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings For Autos In Europe . 16
Regional Overview 17
Audi''s Ducati Purchase: Rivalry Wins Over Strategy . 17
Macroeconomic Outlook 21
Table: France - Economic Activity 23
Industry Forecast . 24
Table: France Autos Sales, 2010-2016 24
Production 26
Table: France Autos Production, 2010-2016 26
Table: France Autos Trade, 2010-2016 27
Market Overview 27
Table: France - Domestic Production By Brand, 2011 (Cbus) 28
Industry News 30
French Probe Could Hit Renault And PSA Profitability . 30
Sales & Financial Performance Of French Carmakers, 2011 . 31
Passenger Cars 32
Table: France Passenger Cars Segment - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016 32
Key Players 34
Table: France - New Car Market By Brand, 2011 . 34
Company News . 35
PSA Peugeot Citroen . 35
Table: PSA Peugeot Citroen Production Partnerships 37
Renault 39
Commercial Vehicles 42
Table: France Commercial Vehicle Segment - Historical Data And Forecasts . 42
Segment Trends . 44
Commercial Vehicles To Contract In 2012 Amid Ongoing Economic Uncertainty . 44
Key Players 45
Table: France: Light Vehicle* Sales By Manufacturer 46
Table: France - Heavy Commercial Vehicle* Registrations 46
Company News . 47
Picking BMI''s Favourites 48
Motorcycles 50
Table: France Motorcycle Segment -- Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016 50
No Recovery In Sight For Motorcycles Segment 50
Crisis Or Change Of Preference? 50
Regulatory Costs 51
Company News . 52
Suppliers 53
Key Players 53
Company News . 54
Company Profiles . 57
PSA Peugeot Citroën . 57
Renault 59
Faurecia 61
Valeo 62
Demographic Data 64
Table: France''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) . 65
Table: France''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 65
Table: France''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 66
Table: France''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . 67
BMI Methodology . 68
How We Generate Our Forecasting Model 68
Sources 69
Historical Data & Forecasts 69Table: Passenger Car Sales (Units), Jan-March 2012. 9
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings For Autos In Europe . 16
Table: France - Economic Activity . 23
Table: France Autos Sales, 2010-2016 . 24
Table: France Autos Production, 2010-2016 . 26
Table: France Autos Trade, 2010-2016 . 27
Table: France - Domestic Production By Brand, 2011 (Cbus) . 28
Table: France Passenger Cars Segment - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016 . 32
Table: France - New Car Market By Brand, 2011 . 34
Table: PSA Peugeot Citroen Production Partnerships . 37
Table: France Commercial Vehicle Segment - Historical Data And Forecasts . 42
Table: France: Light Vehicle* Sales By Manufacturer . 46
Table: France - Heavy Commercial Vehicle* Registrations . 46
Table: France Motorcycle Segment -- Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016 . 50
Table: France''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) . 65
Table: France''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 65
Table: France''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . 66
Table: France''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . 67
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