BMI''s latest report on the Indian telecoms market provides a
comprehensive overview of the latest developments in the mobile,
fixed-line telephony and internet sectors. We have incorporated latest
data from the country’s largest mobile operators, Bharti Airtel,
Vodafone India and Reliance Communications, and the Telecommunication
Regulatory Authority of India into our forecast scenarios.
The Indian mobile market experienced an increase in growth rate in Q112, although it remains significantly below levels reached one year ago. The market added 25.3mn subscribers in Q112, up from 20.2mn in Q411. This is despite a number of hurdles encountered in the market this quarter.
In April, Vodafone began taking action towards international arbitration of a dispute with India’s government over a retroactive tax code change. The Indian government plans to issue Vodafone a demand notice for tax owed after the finance bill is passed by Parliament, according to local press reports citing two senior officials. The government had been pursuing Vodafone for taxes relating to the 2007 acquisition of a 67% stake in Hutchison Essar from Hong Kong-based Hutchison Whampoa for US$11.2bn. However, in January 2012 India’s Supreme Court ended the four-year legal battle in Vodafone’s favour. BMI expects Vodafone to battle against the renewed attempts to tax the transaction and we expect a lengthy legal process. The finance bill has wider implications for India’s economy, with potential negative implications for foreign investment as long as uncertainty continues.
In April 2012, the regulator announced 2G spectrum would be auctioned at US$687mn per MHz, 13 times the price it was auctioned for in 2008. The Supreme Court followed the announcement with a call to hold the auction by August 31 2012, far sooner than early 2013, which had originally been requested.
The telecom secretary stated that the breakdown over the 20-year life of the licences justified the price.
However, the markets and telecoms operators greeted the news badly. Further, the revocation of a number of 2G licences caused a series of disputes.
In May 2012 Augere decided to withdraw from the market due to difficulties in raising funds. The drawnout investigations and contentious measures to resolve issues have not aided investor confidence.
Worryingly, BMI believes that the situation will continue to cast a shadow on the sector in 2012. According to Augere CEO Lars Henrick Stork, the firm''s investors have been ruffled by the 2G scandal, in addition to the repeated delay in the unveiling of the New Telecom Policy, which was scheduled to be announced in 2011. As a result, its investors have halted funding.
In the fixed-line sector, we have witnessed further declines as these are replaced by more convenient mobile phones. At the end of Q112, there were 32.2mn fixed-line subscribers in the market, down from 34.7mn in Q111. In 2012 we forecast that India''s fixed-line market will shrink by around 7%, with the number of lines expected to fall to 30.402mn at the end of the year. We expect an average annual decline of 3.25% between 2013 and 2016. This will result in the number of fixed-line connections falling to 26.617mn in 2016, a penetration rate of 2.0%.
LTE was introduced in Kolkata and Bangalore by Bharti Airtel, which also chose China''s Huawei to implement its TD LTE network in Karnataka. However, we believe that the potential of 4G-speed mobile broadband will not materialise in the near future, especially when the 3G industry is still in its infancy and cannot be deemed as successful.
India retains 10th place in our Asia Pacific Risk Reward Ratings (RRRs), despite falls in Country Risk and Industry Rewards scores. The business environment in the telecoms sector has deteriorated in the past quarter, putting downward pressure on our RRRs. New Delhi''s proposed introduction of retrospective taxation of cross border flows and a General Anti-Avoidance Rule (GAAR) on investment from traditional tax havens is another blow for foreign investors, and highlights the cracks appearing between the judiciary and the legislature. While we would not be surprised to see these proposals eventually watered down, we believe that such policies would further dampen the country''s already unattractive business environment.
We have once again downgraded India''s ratings to reflect the deteriorating risk profile.
Telecommunications Report of India to 2012
Published: July 2012 No. of Pages: 149 Price: US $ 1175
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ...7
Mobile SWOT ...9
Wireline SWOT ...11
SWOT Analysis ...13
Mobile SWOT ...13
Wireline SWOT ...15
Political...17
Economic...19
Business Environment ...21
Risk/Reward Ratings ...23
Risk/Reward Ratings...23
India...29
Industry Forecast Scenario ...31
Mobile...31
ARPU...32
Fixed-Line ...35
Internet...37
Market Data Analysis ...39
Mobile ...39
Spectrum Sharing...53
Industry Trend Analysis...60
Country Outlook...68
Fixed-Line ...72
Broadband...78
Regulatory Development ...90
Competitive Landscape ...100
Vendor Profile ...101
Company Profile ...107
Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL) ...107
Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd (MTNL) ...113
Bharti Airtel...118
Vodafone India...125
Reliance Communications ...130
Market Overview ...136
Mobile ...136
Fixed-Line ...137
Broadband...138
Demographic Forecast ...139
Glossary ...144
Methodology ...146
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings...147
The Indian mobile market experienced an increase in growth rate in Q112, although it remains significantly below levels reached one year ago. The market added 25.3mn subscribers in Q112, up from 20.2mn in Q411. This is despite a number of hurdles encountered in the market this quarter.
In April, Vodafone began taking action towards international arbitration of a dispute with India’s government over a retroactive tax code change. The Indian government plans to issue Vodafone a demand notice for tax owed after the finance bill is passed by Parliament, according to local press reports citing two senior officials. The government had been pursuing Vodafone for taxes relating to the 2007 acquisition of a 67% stake in Hutchison Essar from Hong Kong-based Hutchison Whampoa for US$11.2bn. However, in January 2012 India’s Supreme Court ended the four-year legal battle in Vodafone’s favour. BMI expects Vodafone to battle against the renewed attempts to tax the transaction and we expect a lengthy legal process. The finance bill has wider implications for India’s economy, with potential negative implications for foreign investment as long as uncertainty continues.
In April 2012, the regulator announced 2G spectrum would be auctioned at US$687mn per MHz, 13 times the price it was auctioned for in 2008. The Supreme Court followed the announcement with a call to hold the auction by August 31 2012, far sooner than early 2013, which had originally been requested.
The telecom secretary stated that the breakdown over the 20-year life of the licences justified the price.
However, the markets and telecoms operators greeted the news badly. Further, the revocation of a number of 2G licences caused a series of disputes.
In May 2012 Augere decided to withdraw from the market due to difficulties in raising funds. The drawnout investigations and contentious measures to resolve issues have not aided investor confidence.
Worryingly, BMI believes that the situation will continue to cast a shadow on the sector in 2012. According to Augere CEO Lars Henrick Stork, the firm''s investors have been ruffled by the 2G scandal, in addition to the repeated delay in the unveiling of the New Telecom Policy, which was scheduled to be announced in 2011. As a result, its investors have halted funding.
In the fixed-line sector, we have witnessed further declines as these are replaced by more convenient mobile phones. At the end of Q112, there were 32.2mn fixed-line subscribers in the market, down from 34.7mn in Q111. In 2012 we forecast that India''s fixed-line market will shrink by around 7%, with the number of lines expected to fall to 30.402mn at the end of the year. We expect an average annual decline of 3.25% between 2013 and 2016. This will result in the number of fixed-line connections falling to 26.617mn in 2016, a penetration rate of 2.0%.
LTE was introduced in Kolkata and Bangalore by Bharti Airtel, which also chose China''s Huawei to implement its TD LTE network in Karnataka. However, we believe that the potential of 4G-speed mobile broadband will not materialise in the near future, especially when the 3G industry is still in its infancy and cannot be deemed as successful.
India retains 10th place in our Asia Pacific Risk Reward Ratings (RRRs), despite falls in Country Risk and Industry Rewards scores. The business environment in the telecoms sector has deteriorated in the past quarter, putting downward pressure on our RRRs. New Delhi''s proposed introduction of retrospective taxation of cross border flows and a General Anti-Avoidance Rule (GAAR) on investment from traditional tax havens is another blow for foreign investors, and highlights the cracks appearing between the judiciary and the legislature. While we would not be surprised to see these proposals eventually watered down, we believe that such policies would further dampen the country''s already unattractive business environment.
We have once again downgraded India''s ratings to reflect the deteriorating risk profile.
Telecommunications Report of India to 2012
Published: July 2012 No. of Pages: 149 Price: US $ 1175
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ...7
Mobile SWOT ...9
Wireline SWOT ...11
SWOT Analysis ...13
Mobile SWOT ...13
Wireline SWOT ...15
Political...17
Economic...19
Business Environment ...21
Risk/Reward Ratings ...23
Risk/Reward Ratings...23
India...29
Industry Forecast Scenario ...31
Mobile...31
ARPU...32
Fixed-Line ...35
Internet...37
Market Data Analysis ...39
Mobile ...39
Spectrum Sharing...53
Industry Trend Analysis...60
Country Outlook...68
Fixed-Line ...72
Broadband...78
Regulatory Development ...90
Competitive Landscape ...100
Vendor Profile ...101
Company Profile ...107
Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL) ...107
Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd (MTNL) ...113
Bharti Airtel...118
Vodafone India...125
Reliance Communications ...130
Market Overview ...136
Mobile ...136
Fixed-Line ...137
Broadband...138
Demographic Forecast ...139
Glossary ...144
Methodology ...146
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings...147
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