Even though Egypt food inflation has moderated since 2011''s popular uprising, we still see
food prices as a very sensitive political issue. However, because we see a sufficient increase in wheat
output in 2012/13 and high ending stocks, we expect smaller import needs for grains in the coming
months. We have revised down our forecast for beef production because of the recent outbreak of foot
and mouth disease (FMD), which should also impact growth in dairy production in the coming months.
Cotton farmers should plant less of the crop in 2012/13 because of recent disputes between farmers and
traders and relatively low global prices.
food prices as a very sensitive political issue. However, because we see a sufficient increase in wheat
output in 2012/13 and high ending stocks, we expect smaller import needs for grains in the coming
months. We have revised down our forecast for beef production because of the recent outbreak of foot
and mouth disease (FMD), which should also impact growth in dairy production in the coming months.
Cotton farmers should plant less of the crop in 2012/13 because of recent disputes between farmers and
traders and relatively low global prices.
Key Forecasts
- Cotton production growth to 2015/16: 24.7% to 694,600 bales. We believe cotton production
could rebound strongly as prices should recover slightly from their current bottom. However,
because we do not expect prices to return to their 2011 highs, cotton production growth should
only be on average 3.0% for the last two years of our forecast period. - Wheat consumption growth to 2016: 11.2% to 19.0mn tonnes. Because Egyptians are already
some of the highest per capita consumers of wheat in the world, we expect further consumption
growth to come from population growth. - Cheese production growth to 2015/16: 9.7% to 497,600 tonnes. As the economy recovers and
disposable incomes begin to rise again when the country''s political situation stabilises, so will
the demand for more value-added dairy goods, which in turn will fuel a production growth. - Real GDP Growth: 2.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2012 (up from 1.8% y-o-y in 2011)
- Consumer inflation: 12.0% annual average y-o-y in 2012 (up from 10.1% y-o-y in 2011).
BMI universe agribusiness market value: 5.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) decline to US$8.7bn in
2011/12, forecast to grow on average 1.3% annually between 2010/11 and 2015/16.
Industry Developments
Egyptian wheat imports are set to be smaller in 2012/13 thanks to a smaller production deficit and high
ending stocks. The USDA forecasts the country''s export to be 10.0mn tonnes in 2012/13, compared to
10.3mn tonnes in 2011/12. This is because the country''s General Authority for Supply Commodities
(GASC) is projected to import 6.0mn tonnes, while about 4.0mn tonnes should be imported by the private
sector. In fact, we forecast the country''s production deficit to decrease again to 741,900 tonnes, compared to 760,000 tonnes in 2011/12. Also, the country''s 2011/12 wheat ending stocks are very strong at 5.5mn tonnes, significantly higher than the 10-year average of 3.5mn tonnes.
ending stocks. The USDA forecasts the country''s export to be 10.0mn tonnes in 2012/13, compared to
10.3mn tonnes in 2011/12. This is because the country''s General Authority for Supply Commodities
(GASC) is projected to import 6.0mn tonnes, while about 4.0mn tonnes should be imported by the private
sector. In fact, we forecast the country''s production deficit to decrease again to 741,900 tonnes, compared to 760,000 tonnes in 2011/12. Also, the country''s 2011/12 wheat ending stocks are very strong at 5.5mn tonnes, significantly higher than the 10-year average of 3.5mn tonnes.
We have revised down our forecast for beef production to 280,000 tonnes in 2011/12 due to the recent
outbreak of FMD among the country''s livestock population. According to local estimates, up to 18% of
the country''s 1.8mn head cattle herd could be culled, given the number of expected cases and a mortality
rate of 16%. The mortality rate, which is high by FMD standards, is a function of weak vaccination
practices given the significant fragmentation of the sector and the fact that small farmers generally have
less access to such vaccinations. There have been comparisons raised to the last major disease outbreak in 2006, which resulted in the loss of almost 1mn head of cattle. To combat this, the country has assembled 1,500 veterinary teams throughout the country to dispense SAT2 vaccine.
outbreak of FMD among the country''s livestock population. According to local estimates, up to 18% of
the country''s 1.8mn head cattle herd could be culled, given the number of expected cases and a mortality
rate of 16%. The mortality rate, which is high by FMD standards, is a function of weak vaccination
practices given the significant fragmentation of the sector and the fact that small farmers generally have
less access to such vaccinations. There have been comparisons raised to the last major disease outbreak in 2006, which resulted in the loss of almost 1mn head of cattle. To combat this, the country has assembled 1,500 veterinary teams throughout the country to dispense SAT2 vaccine.
We have revised down our forecast for Egyptian cotton production to 550,000 bales in 2012/13 as farmers decreased plantings after they were unable to sell their production in 2011/12 because of disputes with traders and the government about prices. In fact, the USDA forecasts area harvested to decrease from 220,000 hectares (ha) in 2011/12 to 155,000 ha in 2012/13. Even if yields should increase slightly from 737kg/ha in 2011/12 to 773kg/ha in 2012/13, production should overall fall 26.2% y-o-y in 2012/13.
Published: June 2012 No. of Pages: 57 Price: US $ 1175
Table Of contents
Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Egypt Agriculture Swot .. 7
Egypt Business Environment SWOT ... 8
Supply Demand Analysis 9
Egypt Rice Outlook . 9
Egypt Sugar Outlook . 12
Egypt Dairy Outlook . 15
Egypt Grains Outlook ... 20
Egypt Cotton Outlook 24
Egypt Livestock Outlook ... 28
EGYPT Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade 32
EGYPT Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade . 32
Industry Trend Analysis 33
EMEA Machinery: Emerging Europe Has Strong Potential . 33
GM Seeds & Africa: Significant Constraints To Growth .. 35
Fertilisers & Africa: Significant Obstacles To Usage Growth .. 39
Commodity Price Analysis ... 42
Monthly Softs Update 42
Cocoa ... 42
Coffee ... 43
Palm Oil ... 44
Sugar 45
Monthly Grains Update 46
Corn . 46
Rice .. 47
Soybean 48
Wheat ... 49
Country Snapshot: Egypt Demographic Data 50
BMI Forecast Modelling 54
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ... 54
SWOT Analysis 7
Egypt Agriculture Swot .. 7
Egypt Business Environment SWOT ... 8
Supply Demand Analysis 9
Egypt Rice Outlook . 9
Egypt Sugar Outlook . 12
Egypt Dairy Outlook . 15
Egypt Grains Outlook ... 20
Egypt Cotton Outlook 24
Egypt Livestock Outlook ... 28
EGYPT Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade 32
EGYPT Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade . 32
Industry Trend Analysis 33
EMEA Machinery: Emerging Europe Has Strong Potential . 33
GM Seeds & Africa: Significant Constraints To Growth .. 35
Fertilisers & Africa: Significant Obstacles To Usage Growth .. 39
Commodity Price Analysis ... 42
Monthly Softs Update 42
Cocoa ... 42
Coffee ... 43
Palm Oil ... 44
Sugar 45
Monthly Grains Update 46
Corn . 46
Rice .. 47
Soybean 48
Wheat ... 49
Country Snapshot: Egypt Demographic Data 50
BMI Forecast Modelling 54
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ... 54
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