Oil and gas exports form one of the key pillars of the Indonesian
economy although the outlook for the sector is becoming increasingly
uncertain given dwindling oil reserves in the country’s maturing fields.
The government has recently put in place measures to incentivise oil
companies to conduct deep-sea exploration in a bid to increase total
reserves. Greater domestic consumption leading to higher imports and
lesser exports will be a key trend in the years to come.
The main trends and developments we highlight for Indonesia''s Oil and Gas sector are: We have revised up our 2016 crude oil and gas liquids production forecast from 927,800 barrels per day (b/d) to 954,060b/d due to increased production from ExxonMobil’s Cepu field, which is to reach peak production of 165,000b/d by late 2014. Associated condensate production from Total’s South Mahakam project and Chevron’s Gendalo-Gehem development will also contribute to production growth. Nonetheless, the country will remain a net importer of oil – with 2016 consumption forecast at 1.50mn b/d as domestic electricity demand in the country expands along with economic growth.
Under current production sharing contracts (PSCs), the government takes 85% of oil production while the remaining 15% goes to the oil contractor. For deep-sea oil projects, the government is willing to decrease its stake to 65% in a bid to incentivise oil companies to conduct deep-sea oil exploration. Without the discovery of any major oil deposits, we expect the country’s proven oil reserves to decline from 4bn barrels (bbl) in 2011 to 3.62bn bbl by 2021.
Steps are being taken to cope with rapidly rising demand for fuel and electricity. The government has been considering scrapping fuel subsidies for private cars – starting on April 1 2012 in Greater Jakarta and later for other parts of Java and Bali. However, these have been met with considerable political opposition.
Natural gas production is expected to have hit a near-term peak of around 76.6bn cubic meters (bcm) in 2011. The country''s gas consumption is on the rise and is forecast to reach 54.5bcm by 2016. We expect natural gas exports to rise slightly from 33.8bcm in 2011 to 36.4bcm by 2016.
Production from Indonesia''s East Natuna gas project is unlikely to start before 2022, and bringing the large-scale project onstream could cost up to US$40bn. The Natuna D-Alpha block is estimated to hold 1.29trn cubic metres (tcm) of recoverable gas reserves, making it the largest single gas field in Asia.
Domestic consumption is set to drive crude oil imports to US$18.03bn by 2016 from US$12.84bn in 2011. Natural gas exports will also be diverted domestically, with exports set to decline from US$18.09bn in 2011 down to US$16.88bn in 2016.
At the time of writing we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$107.05/bbl, falling to US$99.10/bbl in 2013. Global GDP in 2012 is forecast at 2.6%, down from an assumed 3.1% in 2011, reflecting a faltering recovery in the US and an uncertain eurozone debt situation. For 2013, growth is estimated at 3.2%.
Q4 2012 Report of Indonesia Oil and Gas
Table of Contents
The main trends and developments we highlight for Indonesia''s Oil and Gas sector are: We have revised up our 2016 crude oil and gas liquids production forecast from 927,800 barrels per day (b/d) to 954,060b/d due to increased production from ExxonMobil’s Cepu field, which is to reach peak production of 165,000b/d by late 2014. Associated condensate production from Total’s South Mahakam project and Chevron’s Gendalo-Gehem development will also contribute to production growth. Nonetheless, the country will remain a net importer of oil – with 2016 consumption forecast at 1.50mn b/d as domestic electricity demand in the country expands along with economic growth.
Under current production sharing contracts (PSCs), the government takes 85% of oil production while the remaining 15% goes to the oil contractor. For deep-sea oil projects, the government is willing to decrease its stake to 65% in a bid to incentivise oil companies to conduct deep-sea oil exploration. Without the discovery of any major oil deposits, we expect the country’s proven oil reserves to decline from 4bn barrels (bbl) in 2011 to 3.62bn bbl by 2021.
Steps are being taken to cope with rapidly rising demand for fuel and electricity. The government has been considering scrapping fuel subsidies for private cars – starting on April 1 2012 in Greater Jakarta and later for other parts of Java and Bali. However, these have been met with considerable political opposition.
Natural gas production is expected to have hit a near-term peak of around 76.6bn cubic meters (bcm) in 2011. The country''s gas consumption is on the rise and is forecast to reach 54.5bcm by 2016. We expect natural gas exports to rise slightly from 33.8bcm in 2011 to 36.4bcm by 2016.
Production from Indonesia''s East Natuna gas project is unlikely to start before 2022, and bringing the large-scale project onstream could cost up to US$40bn. The Natuna D-Alpha block is estimated to hold 1.29trn cubic metres (tcm) of recoverable gas reserves, making it the largest single gas field in Asia.
Domestic consumption is set to drive crude oil imports to US$18.03bn by 2016 from US$12.84bn in 2011. Natural gas exports will also be diverted domestically, with exports set to decline from US$18.09bn in 2011 down to US$16.88bn in 2016.
At the time of writing we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$107.05/bbl, falling to US$99.10/bbl in 2013. Global GDP in 2012 is forecast at 2.6%, down from an assumed 3.1% in 2011, reflecting a faltering recovery in the US and an uncertain eurozone debt situation. For 2013, growth is estimated at 3.2%.
Q4 2012 Report of Indonesia Oil and Gas
Published: August
2012 No. of
Pages: 117 Price: US $ 1175
Table of Contents
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT Analysis . 9
Indonesia Oil and Gas SWOT ... 9
Global Energy Market Outlook .. 10
Oil: Getting Closer To Emerging Markets Inflection Point . 10
Table: Oil Consumption Forecasts, 2010-2016 (’000b/d) ... 12
Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 (’000b/d) ... 14
Regional Energy Market Outlook .. 18
Frontier Plays & Brownfields Bolster Asia''s Upstream Outlook . 18
Table: Number Of Rigs in Operation In Asia, 2002-2012 19
Indonesia Energy Market Overview .. 24
Table: Upstream Projects Database 25
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 26
Table: Indonesia Oil & Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 26
Table: Indonesia Oil & Gas – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 27
Oil and Gas Reserves ... 28
Oil Supply And Demand... 29
Gas Supply and Demand .. 31
Coal Bed Methane ... 32
LNG . 33
Refining and Oil Products Trade . 35
Revenues/Import Costs 36
Key Risks To BMI''s Forecast Scenario 36
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 37
Oil Refineries ... 37
Table: Refineries In Indonesia, 2008-2016 .. 37
Service Stations 39
Oil Terminals/Ports . 39
Oil Pipelines 39
LNG Terminals 39
Table: LNG Export Terminals In Indonesia . 40
Japanese LNG Supply Deals 43
Gas Pipelines ... 44
Regional And Country Risk/Reward Ratings .. 46
O&G Asia Risk/Reward Ratings .. 46
Table: Asia Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings 49
Table: Asia Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings 50
Indonesia Upstream Rating – Overview .. 50
Indonesia Upstream Rating – Rewards 50
Indonesia Upstream Rating – Risks . 51
Indonesia Downstream Rating – Overview .. 51
Competitive Landscape . 52
Executive Summary ... 52
Table: Key Players – Indonesian Oil And Gas Sector .. 53
Overview/State Role .. 53
Licensing and Regulation 54
Government Policy .. 54
Licensing Rounds . 56
Table: Key Upstream Players .. 58
Table: Key Downstream Players . 58
Company Monitor ... 59
Chevron Indonesia 63
ExxonMobil Indonesia .. 66
BP Indonesia . 70
CNOOC Indonesia 74
ConocoPhillips Indonesia . 77
Total E&P Indonesie 80
Medco Energi ... 84
Eni Indonesia 87
Salamander Energy ... 90
CNPC/ PetroChina – Summary ... 94
Petronas – Summary 94
Marathon Oil – Summary 94
Hess – Summary .. 94
VICO Indonesia – Summary 95
Inpex – Summary . 95
Santos – Summary 96
Badak NGL – Summary ... 97
Serica Energy – Summary 97
AWE – Summary .. 97
Premier Oil – Summary ... 98
Others – Summary ... 98
Asia – Regional Appendix ... 100
Table: Oil Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) ..100
Table: Oil Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) .100
Table: Oil Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) .101
Table: Oil Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) 102
Table: Refining Capacity – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) 102
Table: Refining Capacity – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) ...103
Table: Gas Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) .104
Table: Gas Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm).104
Table: Gas Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) ..105
Table: Gas Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) .105
Table: LNG Exports – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)..106
Table: Net LNG Exports – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) ..106
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts ... 108
Glossary Of Terms ... 109
Table: Glossary of Terms 109
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology .. 111
Ratings Overview .111
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure ..112
Indicators .112
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology ...112
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology ...113
BMI Methodology . 115
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ..115
Energy Industry ...115
Cross checks 116
Sources 116Table: Oil Consumption Forecasts, 2010-2016 (''000b/d) . 12
Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 (''000b/d) . 14
Table: Number Of Rigs in Operation In Asia, 2002-2012 . 19
Table: Upstream Projects Database . 25
Table: Indonesia Oil & Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 26
Table: Indonesia Oil & Gas – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 . 27
Table: Refineries In Indonesia, 2008-2016 . 37
Table: LNG Export Terminals In Indonesia . 40
Table: Asia Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings. 49
Table: Asia Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings . 50
Table: Key Players – Indonesian Oil And Gas Sector . 53
Table: Key Upstream Players . 58
Table: Key Downstream Players . 58
Table: Oil Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (''000b/d) .100
Table: Oil Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (''000b/d) .100
Table: Oil Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (''000b/d) .101
Table: Oil Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (''000b/d) .102
Table: Refining Capacity – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (''000b/d) .102
Table: Refining Capacity – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (''000b/d) .103
Table: Gas Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) .104
Table: Gas Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm).104
Table: Gas Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) .105
Table: Gas Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) .105
Table: LNG Exports – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm).106
Table: Net LNG Exports – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) .106
Table: Glossary of Terms .109
Table: BMI''s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure .112
Table: BMI''s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology .112
Table: BMI''s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology .113
SWOT Analysis . 9
Indonesia Oil and Gas SWOT ... 9
Global Energy Market Outlook .. 10
Oil: Getting Closer To Emerging Markets Inflection Point . 10
Table: Oil Consumption Forecasts, 2010-2016 (’000b/d) ... 12
Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 (’000b/d) ... 14
Regional Energy Market Outlook .. 18
Frontier Plays & Brownfields Bolster Asia''s Upstream Outlook . 18
Table: Number Of Rigs in Operation In Asia, 2002-2012 19
Indonesia Energy Market Overview .. 24
Table: Upstream Projects Database 25
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 26
Table: Indonesia Oil & Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 26
Table: Indonesia Oil & Gas – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 27
Oil and Gas Reserves ... 28
Oil Supply And Demand... 29
Gas Supply and Demand .. 31
Coal Bed Methane ... 32
LNG . 33
Refining and Oil Products Trade . 35
Revenues/Import Costs 36
Key Risks To BMI''s Forecast Scenario 36
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 37
Oil Refineries ... 37
Table: Refineries In Indonesia, 2008-2016 .. 37
Service Stations 39
Oil Terminals/Ports . 39
Oil Pipelines 39
LNG Terminals 39
Table: LNG Export Terminals In Indonesia . 40
Japanese LNG Supply Deals 43
Gas Pipelines ... 44
Regional And Country Risk/Reward Ratings .. 46
O&G Asia Risk/Reward Ratings .. 46
Table: Asia Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings 49
Table: Asia Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings 50
Indonesia Upstream Rating – Overview .. 50
Indonesia Upstream Rating – Rewards 50
Indonesia Upstream Rating – Risks . 51
Indonesia Downstream Rating – Overview .. 51
Competitive Landscape . 52
Executive Summary ... 52
Table: Key Players – Indonesian Oil And Gas Sector .. 53
Overview/State Role .. 53
Licensing and Regulation 54
Government Policy .. 54
Licensing Rounds . 56
Table: Key Upstream Players .. 58
Table: Key Downstream Players . 58
Company Monitor ... 59
Chevron Indonesia 63
ExxonMobil Indonesia .. 66
BP Indonesia . 70
CNOOC Indonesia 74
ConocoPhillips Indonesia . 77
Total E&P Indonesie 80
Medco Energi ... 84
Eni Indonesia 87
Salamander Energy ... 90
CNPC/ PetroChina – Summary ... 94
Petronas – Summary 94
Marathon Oil – Summary 94
Hess – Summary .. 94
VICO Indonesia – Summary 95
Inpex – Summary . 95
Santos – Summary 96
Badak NGL – Summary ... 97
Serica Energy – Summary 97
AWE – Summary .. 97
Premier Oil – Summary ... 98
Others – Summary ... 98
Asia – Regional Appendix ... 100
Table: Oil Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) ..100
Table: Oil Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) .100
Table: Oil Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) .101
Table: Oil Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) 102
Table: Refining Capacity – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) 102
Table: Refining Capacity – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) ...103
Table: Gas Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) .104
Table: Gas Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm).104
Table: Gas Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) ..105
Table: Gas Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) .105
Table: LNG Exports – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)..106
Table: Net LNG Exports – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) ..106
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts ... 108
Glossary Of Terms ... 109
Table: Glossary of Terms 109
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology .. 111
Ratings Overview .111
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure ..112
Indicators .112
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology ...112
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology ...113
BMI Methodology . 115
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ..115
Energy Industry ...115
Cross checks 116
Sources 116Table: Oil Consumption Forecasts, 2010-2016 (''000b/d) . 12
Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 (''000b/d) . 14
Table: Number Of Rigs in Operation In Asia, 2002-2012 . 19
Table: Upstream Projects Database . 25
Table: Indonesia Oil & Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 26
Table: Indonesia Oil & Gas – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 . 27
Table: Refineries In Indonesia, 2008-2016 . 37
Table: LNG Export Terminals In Indonesia . 40
Table: Asia Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings. 49
Table: Asia Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings . 50
Table: Key Players – Indonesian Oil And Gas Sector . 53
Table: Key Upstream Players . 58
Table: Key Downstream Players . 58
Table: Oil Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (''000b/d) .100
Table: Oil Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (''000b/d) .100
Table: Oil Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (''000b/d) .101
Table: Oil Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (''000b/d) .102
Table: Refining Capacity – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (''000b/d) .102
Table: Refining Capacity – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (''000b/d) .103
Table: Gas Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) .104
Table: Gas Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm).104
Table: Gas Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) .105
Table: Gas Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) .105
Table: LNG Exports – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm).106
Table: Net LNG Exports – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) .106
Table: Glossary of Terms .109
Table: BMI''s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure .112
Table: BMI''s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology .112
Table: BMI''s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology .113
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