Cameroon Oil and Gas Report Q3 2012

With declining production and few new projects expected to come on-stream in the next
decade, Cameroon’s upstream oil outlook seems rather unsteady. Meanwhile, a more efficient usage of
associated gas, through the limitation of flaring, and the development of domestic resources offer
prospects for booming growth in the gas upstream with opportunity for LNG exports.

Main trends and developments we highlight for Cameroon’s Oil and Gas sector are as follows:

• BMI expects growth in oil production to be somewhat irregular over the next decade with output
  of 71,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2012, peaking at 87,000b/d in 2014 and 2015 before falling
  back to 79,000b/d in 2017, then hitting 84,000b/d in 2018 and finally settling at around
  78,000b/d in 2021. This chaotic growth is explained by the limited number of new projects,
  which implies that each time new volumes come on-stream, total output surges before slowly
  decreasing as a result of a decline in output from fields that are already producing.
• Meanwhile, consumption of crude is likely to rise at an average rate of 5.6% from 2011 to 2021.
  We therefore anticipate that consumption will rise from 27,000b/d in 2011, to hit 47,000b/d by
  2021.
• BMI forecasts that gas production will increase from 0.03bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2011 to
  5.78bcm by 2021, as the authorities and companies reduce the practice of flaring and start
  monetising associated gas resources. Gas production is to be boosted further by new projects
  with considerable associated gas production, such as Victoria Oil and Gas’ Logbaba project
  (6bcm). Gas output growth will be bolstered by domestic demand but also by export prospects,
  notably in the form of LNG as suggested by the proposed 4.8bcm LNG terminal in Kribi.
• Gas demand is set to rise at an average rate of 23.7% on the back of numerous infrastructure
  projects that will boost domestic consumption. The most notable of these projects is the 150
  megawatt (MW) Kribi power plant. As a result, we see gas consumption rising from 0.03bcm in
  2011 to 0.18bcm by 2021.
• Cameroonian crude reserves are likely to continue declining as increased output will result in
  high depletion rates. We see proven oil reserves falling from 200mn barrels (bbl) in 2011 to
  160mn bbl in 2021. The reserves-to-production ratio will fall from little more than nine years to
  under six years. With regard to gas, the outlook is less dire as the potential for discoveries offers
  more stable prospects. We see reserves hovering between 140bcm and 150bcm throughout the
  decade. Cameroon Oil & Gas Report Q3 2012 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 6
• In the downstream sector, the authorities have adopted a very realistic stance. The government
  has ambitious plans to expand capacity at Société Nationale de Raffinage (SONARA), the
  country’s only refinery located in Cape Limboh, from 42,200b/d to 70,300b/d; and to upgrade
  the facility so that it will be able to process the heavy crude oil that is produced in Cameroon,
  and not simply imported light grades.
• Cameroon’s dependence on energy prices leads to high volatility in the country’s export
  revenues. Our assumptions of tight supply due to booming demand in emerging markets is
  clearly an opportunity for the country. As a result, we assume OPEC basket oil prices to increase
  from US$107.52 bbl in 2011 to US$111.47/bbl in 2012, thus creating an upside risk for the
  Cameroonian macroeconomic outlook.

Cameroon Oil and Gas Market 2012
 

Published: August 2012                      No. of Pages: 63                       Price: US $ 1175

 

Table of Contents
 
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis . 7
Cameroon Oil and Gas SWOT 7
Global Energy Market Outlook 8
Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) 8
Table: Oil Consumption Forecast, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) . 14
Regional Energy Market Outlook . 15
Cameroon Energy Market Overview . 19
Table: Upstream Projects Database . 20
Industry Forecast Scenario 21
Oil and Gas Reserves . 21
Table: Cameroon Oil & Gas – Historical Data and Forecasts, 2009-2016 22
Table: Cameroon Oil & Gas – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 . 23
Oil Supply and Demand 24
Gas Supply and Demand . 25
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 27
Oil And Gas Infrastructure . 28
Oil Refineries 28
Table: Refineries In Cameroon . 28
Service Stations 28
Oil Storage Facilities . 28
Oil Terminals/Ports 28
Oil Pipelines . 29
LNG Terminals 29
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings 30
Table: Upstream Risk / Reward Ratings 33
Table: Downstream Risk / Reward Ratings 34
Cameroon Upstream Rating – Overview . 34
Cameroon Upstream Rating – Rewards 34
Cameroon Upstream Rating – Risks . 34
Cameroon Downstream Rating – Overview 35
Cameroon Downstream Rating – Rewards 35
Cameroon Downstream Rating – Risks. 35
Competitive Landscape 36
Executive Summary . 36
Table: Key Players – Cameroon Energy Sector . 37
Overview/State Role 37
Licensing And Regulation . 37
Government Policy . 38
Licensing Rounds 38
International Energy Relations . 38
Table: Key Upstream Players 39
Table: Key Downstream Players 39
Company Monitor . 40
Cameroon Oil & Gas Report Q3 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Perenco 40
Victoria Oil & Gas – Summary . 42
Sterling Energy – Summary . 42
Petronas – Summary 43
Noble Energy – Summary . 43
Bowleven Oil And Gas – Summary 43
Kosmos Energy – Summary . 44
Addax/Pecten – Summary . 44
Africa – Regional Appendix 46
Table: Cameroon Oil Consumption Historical Data & Forecast, 2009-2016 (‘000b/d) . 46
Table: Cameroon Oil Consumption Long-Term Forecast, 2014-2021 (‘000b/d) 47
Table: Cameroon Oil Production Historical Data & Forecast, 2009-2016 (‘000b/d) . 47
Table: Cameroon Oil Production Long-Term Forecast, 2014-2021 (‘000b/d) 48
Table: Cameroon Refining Capacity Historical Data & Forecast, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) . 49
Table: Cameroon Refining Capacity Long-Term Forecast, 2014-2021 (‘000b/d) 49
Table: Cameroon Gas Consumption Historical Data & Forecast, 2009-2016 (bcm) 50
Table: Cameroon Gas Consumption Long-Term Forecast, 2014-2021 (bcm) . 51
Table: Cameroon Gas Production Historical Data & Forecast, 2009-2016 (bcm) 51
Table: Cameroon Gas Production Long-Term Forecast, 2014-2021 (bcm) 52
Table: Cameroon LNG Net Exports Historical Data & Forecast, 2009-2016 (bcm) . 53
Table: Cameroon LNG Net Exports Long-Term Forecast, 2014-2021 (bcm) 53
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 54
Glossary Of Terms . 55
Table: Glossary Of Terms . 55
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 57
Ratings Overview 57
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure 58
Indicators . 58
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology 58
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology 59
BMI Methodology . 61
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 61
Energy Industry 61
Cross checks . 62
Sources 62Table: Oil Production Forecasts (‘ b/d)
Table: Oil Consumption Forecast (‘ b/d)
Table: Upstream Projects Database
Table: Cameroon Oil & Gas – Historical Data and Forecasts
Table: Cameroon Oil & Gas – LongTerm Forecasts
Table: Upstream Risk / Reward Ratings
Table: Downstream Risk / Reward Ratings
Table: Key Players – Cameroon Energy Sector
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Table: Cameroon Oil Consumption Historical Data & Forecast (‘b/d)
Table: Cameroon Oil Consumption LongTerm Forecast (‘b/d)
Table: Cameroon Oil Production Historical Data & Forecast (‘b/d)
Table: Cameroon Oil Production LongTerm Forecast (‘b/d)
Table: Cameroon Refining Capacity Historical Data & Forecast (’b/d)
Table: Cameroon Refining Capacity LongTerm Forecast (‘b/d)
Table: Cameroon Gas Consumption Historical Data & Forecast (bcm)
Table: Cameroon Gas Consumption LongTerm Forecast (bcm)
Table: Cameroon Gas Production Historical Data & Forecast (bcm)
Table: Cameroon Gas Production LongTerm Forecast (bcm)
Table: Cameroon LNG Net Exports Historical Data & Forecast (bcm)
Table: Cameroon LNG Net Exports LongTerm Forecast (bcm)
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology