Canada Shipping Report Q4 2012

BMI believes that global conditions are aligned for a slowdown in Canadian growth, but only a moderate
one. Our US real GDP growth forecast for 2012 has remained unrevised since the beginning of the year,
at 2.0%. US and Canadian growth tend to move in tandem, and we expect that general rule to hold,
signalling moderate growth in both countries. We forecast that net exports will be a net negative for
growth in 2012 for the third consecutive year. We have not changed our growth forecasts for real exports
or real imports for 2012, as they had already reflected our view that global demand would moderate. Our
real export growth projections are 4.2% in 2012 and 5.7% in 2013 (compared to 4.4% in 2011), while our
import forecasts are 3.6% in 2012 and 4.1% in 2013.

Despite our view for moderating growth, BMI maintains its broadly optimistic outlook for Canadian
port sector, indicating a strong base for growth at the country''s ports. Total throughput will be driven by
steady imports, boding well for ports and the shipping sector. Coal and grains exports should also boost
throughput volumes during our forecast period.

Headline Industry Data
􀂃 2012 Port of Vancouver tonnage throughput forecast to grow 2.7%. Over the medium term we
project average annual growth of 2.6% to reach 139mn tonnes in 2016.
􀂃 2012 Port of Vancouver container throughput forecast to grow 5.6% in 2012. Over the medium
term we project a 5.9% increase to reach 3.3mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in 2016.

Key Industry Trends
Montreal To Benefit From FTA
A free trade agreement (FTA) between Canada and the EU will result in upside risk for the Port of
Montreal''s throughput over the medium term. The port''s strategic location along one of the busiest trade
routes in Canada, the Ontario-Quebec corridor, will position it to capture a significant amount of the
increased trade across the Atlantic.

PetroChina Joins Canada Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Project
Asian energy giant PetroChina is to join with Shell Canada and major energy companies in Japan and
South Korea to develop a liquefied natural gas export project in British Columbia, according to reports.
Shell will hold a 40% stake in the project, with Korea Gas, Mitsubishi and PetroChina each holding
20% shares, the Chinese state oil and gas company said. Under the plan large tankers are to transport
LNG from the northwest coast port of Kitimat in British Columbia to Asian markets.

Canada Shipping Report Q4 2012 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 6
Saint Lawrence Seaway Cargo Volume Up A jump in coal shipments helped boost cargo volume on the Saint Lawrence Seaway by 2.2% in the first five weeks of the waterway season in 2012. Coal shipments rose 40% year-on-year (y-o-y) between March 22 and April 30.

Risks To Outlook
We were previously concerned about the possibility of a significant slowdown in the US recovery, but
with the US recovery seemingly on a steady trajectory, the biggest risk by far is the potential for a
eurozone breakup, which would threaten the Canadian economy across the board, from business
confidence, to trade, to financial markets A major slowdown in China would also negatively impact commodity prices, hurting Canadian port volumes.

Canada Shipping Industry 2012 

Published: August 2012                   No. of Pages: 129                  Price:  US $ 1175

   

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis . 7
Canada Shipping SWOT 7
Canada Political SWOT . 8
Canada Economic SWOT . 8
Global Overview – Container Shipping . 9
More Positive Box Outlook In H212 9
Box Supply Demand Imbalance Worsens . 10
Concerted Rate Push Must Continue 19
Bunker Price Still A Worry 22
2013: A Year Of Mega Realisation 23
Containerisation Revolution Hits Dry Bulk 30
Global Overview – Dry Bulk Shipping . 33
Stockpiling: A Threat To Dry Bulk Shipping . 33
Overcapacity A Long Term Problem 36
Bankruptcies To Continue . 39
Vale''s Forced Diversification Hedges Against China Slowdown . 43
Protectionism Trend Takes Off . 48
Global Overview – Liquid Bulk Shipping . 53
Executive Summary: Unconventional Sectors To Outshine Traditional Crude 53
Dirty Tanker Index To Remain Depressed . 54
Bunker Prices Down, But So Are Rates 59
Table: BMI''s Bunker Fuel Forecasts, 2010-2016 ($/Bbl) . 59
Iran Sanctions Continue To Affect Crude Shipping 62
Saudi Arabian Merger Bad News For Other Operators 64
Table: Biggest Operators Of VLCCs & ULCCs . 65
Bullish On Golar LNG Prospects 66
Tight Market Creates Boom Times For Rig Sector . 70
Industry Trends And Developments 74
Canada Container Shipping Market Overview 76
Industry Forecast . 80
Port of Montreal . 80
Port Metro Vancouver . 82
Table: Major Port Data, 2009-2016 . 83
Trade 85
Table: Trade Overview, 2009-2016 85
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2009-2016 (US$mn) . 85
Table: Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn) 86
Table: Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn) 86
Canada Shipping Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Company Profiles . 87
Teekay . 87
Maersk Line 90
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) . 96
CMA CGM .100
COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON)107
Hapag-Lloyd .111
Evergreen Line .116
APL 120
China Shipping Container Line (CSCL) .125
Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations) 131
Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL) .135
Demographic Outlook . 140
Table: Canada''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) 141
Table: Canada''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) .142
Table: Canada''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 143
Table: Canada''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 143Table: BMI''s Bunker Fuel Forecasts ($/Bbl)
Table: Biggest Operators Of VLCCs & ULCCs
Table: Major Port Data
Table: Trade Overview
Table: Key Trade Indicators (US$mn)
Table: Main Import Partners (US$mn)
Table: Main Export Partners (US$mn)
Table: Canada''s Population By Age Group ('')
Table: Canada''s Population By Age Group (% of total)
Table: Canada''s Key Population Ratios
Table: Canada''s Rural And Urban Population