China Tourism Report Q4 2012

The China Tourism Report examines the enormous long-term potential of the country''s tourism market,
particularly in terms of the massive domestic market. With China’s middle class expanding rapidly, the
domestic market will become of increasing importance to operators over the next decade.

The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Chinese tourism market, navigating the state-led
tourism industry to discuss opportunities for joint ventures with Chinese partners.

The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading
players in the Chinese tourism sector, as they seek to maximise the tremendous growth opportunities
offered by the local market.

China Tourism Industry
 

Published: August 2012                     No. of Pages: 71                  Price:  US $ 1175

 

Table of Contents

Executive Summary . 5
Key Findings 6
SWOT Analysis 7
China Tourism SWOT 7
China Political SWOT 8
China Economic SWOT . 9
China Business Environment SWOT . 10
Industry Forecast Scenario 11
Arrivals 11
Table: Arrivals Data, 2009-2016 12
Accommodation 13
Table: Hotels Data, 2009-2016 (‘000, unless stated) . 13
Expenditure . 14
Table: Tourist Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2009-2016 14
Inbound Tourism . 15
Table: Inbound Tourism, 2009-2016 (‘000, unless stated) 15
Outbound Tourism 16
Table: Outbound Tourism, 2009-2016 17
Market Overview – Travel 18
Airlines 18
State-Owned Airlines . 19
Private Airlines 21
Hong Kong Express is a high-end carrier, transporting business travellers from Hong Kong to Guangzhou and Hangzhou.Cruises 22
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 23
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, 2011-2016 . 23
Market Overview – Hospitality 30
Hotels 30
Budget Hotels 32
Risks To Accommodation Forecast Scenario 33
Gaming 33
H5N1 And H1N1 Virus Update 35
Business Environment Outlook 37
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings 37
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 38
China’s Security Risk Ratings 38
North East Asia Security Overview 39
The Geopolitical Importance Of North East Asia 39
Flashpoints And Faultlines In North East Asia 40
The Evolution Of North East Asia 48
Global Assumptions 51
Table: Global Assumpations, 201-2016 51
China Tourism Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 201-2013 (% chg y-o-y) 52
Table: Developed States Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2010-2013 (% chg y-o-y) . 54
Table: Emerging Markets Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% chg y-o-y) . 55
Company Profiles 57
Air China . 57
Melco International Development 59
Shangri-La Asia . 61
Jinjiang International Holdings 62
Demographic Outlook 63
Table: China''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) 64
Table: China''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 65
Table: China''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . 66
Table: China''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . 66
BMI Methodology . 67
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 67
Tourism Industry 67
Tourism Ratings – Methodology . 68
Table: Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators . 69
Table: Weighting Of Components 70
Sources 70Table: Arrivals Data
Table: Hotels Data (‘ unless stated)
Table: Tourist Expenditure And Economic Impact
Table: Inbound Tourism (‘ unless stated)
Table: Outbound Tourism
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Table: Global Assumpations
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth (% chg yoy)
Table: Developed States Real GDP Growth Forecasts (% chg yoy)
Table: Emerging Markets Real GDP Growth (% chg yoy)
Table: China''s Population By Age Group ('')
Table: China''s Population By Age Group (% of total)
Table: China''s Key Population Ratios
Table: Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Components