We do not envisage a significant pickup in private consumption activity in Japan in the near term. Weak
asset prices and a deteriorating external climate will weigh on consumer sentiment and potentially
dampen domestic demand. That said, we acknowledge that a strong yen and low unemployment will lend
some upward support to near-term domestic demand. Looking beyond the near term, the depleting growth
opportunities in Japan’s consumer-facing sectors mean that international expansion will remain a
strategic priority for domestic food and drink companies such as Lawson and Asahi.
Headline Industry Data (local currency)
2012 per capita food consumption = +0.9%; five-year compound annual growth rate to 2016 =
+0.3%
2012 alcoholic drinks value sales = +2.8%; CAGR growth forecast to 2016 = +0.6%
2012 soft drinks value sales = +4.7%; CAGR growth forecast to 2016 = +2.9%
2012 mass grocery retail sales = +1.5%; CAGR growth forecast to 2016 = +0.3%
Key Industry Trends
Foreign Expansions Accelerating: Japan-based trading house Marubeni has bought US-based
commodity management company Gavilon in a deal worth US$3.6bn. Marubeni has paid US$3.6bn for
the equity in Gavilon and will take the remaining US$2bn in debt. The deal will nearly double Marubeni''s
grain trading volumes and make it one of the world''s largest grain traders. Taiwan-based packaged food
producer Tingyi (Cayman) Islands is planning to enter the meat processing business in an effort to boost
its earnings. The source added that the firm is in discussions with a Japanese partner to jointly
manufacture high-end meat products, such as ham and sausages.
Securing A Stronger Foothold In Drink Sector: Japanese beverage group Asahi Group Holdings
announced it has agreed to buy domestic beverage maker Calpis from Japanese ingredients and cooking
oil firm Ajinomoto. The Mainichi reports that the deal is worth JPY119bn (US$1.5bn) and will be
completed on October 1 2012, when all 73.94mn Calpi shares will be acquired by Asahi Group. Japanbased coffee maker UCC Holdings has entered a definitive agreement with US coffee firm United
Coffee to acquire the latter for nearly JPY50bn (US$613mn). Japan Food & Drink Report Q3 2012 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 8
Risks To Outlook
We are mindful of the external risks posed by economic uncertainties in Japan’s key trading partners,
especially in the eurozone and the US. With the fiscal crisis in Europe spreading from Greece to larger
countries including France, we are concerned that the contraction in spending in these areas could result
in a sharp drop in demand for Japanese products. Should the economic performances in these countries
turn out to be worse than expected, Japan’s growth would be affected, potentially resulting in an
economic recession that extends beyond 2012. This scenario clearly would not bode well for the
consumer and could deal another blow to domestic demand growth.
Japan Food and Drink Industry
Table of Contents
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT Analysis 9
Japan Food SWOT 9
Japan Drink SWOT . 10
Japan Mass Grocery Retail SWOT 11
Business Environment . 12
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views 12
Table: Core Views 20
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings 21
Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings, Q312 25
Japan’s Food And Drink Business Environment Rating . 26
Macroeconomic Outlook . 27
Table: Economic Activity 30
Industry Forecast Scenario 31
Consumer Outlook 31
Food 33
Food Consumption 33
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts 34
Confectionery . 34
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts 35
Table: Sugar Confectionary . 36
Canned Food . 37
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts 38
Drink . 39
Alcoholic Drinks 39
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts . 41
Table: Beer . 41
Table: Wine . 42
Hot Drinks 43
Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts . 43
Table: Tea 43
Soft Drinks 44
Table: Soft Drinks Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts 45
Table: Carbonates 45
Table: Fruit/Vegetable Juice 46
Table: Bottled Water 46
Mass Grocery Retail 47
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts . 48
Trade . 49
Table: Food & Drink Trade Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts . 50
Food . 51
Key Industry Trends And Developments 51
Foreign Expansions Accelerating 51
Japan Food & Drink Report Q3 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Innovation To Provide Exciting Opportunities For Confectionery Players. 51
High-Spending Consumers Appeal To Foreign Investors . 52
Market Overview . 54
Food Consumption 54
Confectionery . 55
Functional Food 55
Canned Food . 56
Frozen Food 56
Trade. 56
Agriculture 57
Drink . 58
Key Industry Trends And Developments 58
Securing A Stronger Foothold 58
Opportunities Abound In EMs For Yakult 58
Pursuing Geographical Diversification … . 59
…As Well As Sectoral Diversification . 60
Market Overview . 61
Alcoholic Drinks 61
Beer 62
Wine 64
Hot Drinks 64
Soft Drinks 64
Functional Drinks . 65
Mass Grocery Retail 66
Key Industry Trends And Developments 66
Convenience Retail Outperformance In 2012 . 66
Pursuing Sectoral And Geographical Expansions 67
Seven & I And Daiei With Differing Results . 69
Market Overview . 69
Leading MGR Players 70
Table: Structure Of Japan''s Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number of Outlets 72
Table: Structure Of Japan''s Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales By Format (US$bn) 72
Table: Structure Of Japan''s Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales By Format (JPYbn) 72
Table: Average Annual Sales Per Outlet By Format – 2011 73
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts 73
Competitive Landscape 74
Key Players . 74
Table: Key Players In Japan''s Food & Drink Sector . 74
Table: Key Players In Japan''s Mass Grocery Retail Sector 75
Company Monitor 76
Food 76
Ajinomoto. 76
Drink . 78
Asahi Breweries Ltd 78
Kirin 80
Mass Grocery Retail 83
Seven & I Holdings . 83
Japan Food & Drink Report Q3 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 5
Lawson Inc 86
AEON 89
Seiyu . 91
Demographic Outlook 92
Table: Japan''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) 93
Table: Japan''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 94
Table: Japan''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . 95
Table: Japan''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . 95
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology . 96
Table: Rewards 96
Table: Risks 97
Weighting . 97
Table: Weighting 97
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary 98
Food & Drink 98
Mass Grocery Retail 98
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing 100
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts . 100
Sourcing . 101Table: Core Views
Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q
Table: Economic Activity
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Sugar Confectionary
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Beer
Table: Wine
Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Tea
Table: Soft Drinks Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Carbonates
Table: Fruit/Vegetable Juice
Table: Bottled Water
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Food & Drink Trade Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Structure Of Japan''s Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number of Outlets
Table: Structure Of Japan''s Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales By Format (US$bn)
Table: Structure Of Japan''s Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales By Format (JPYbn)
Table: Average Annual Sales Per Outlet By Format –
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Key Players In Japan''s Food & Drink Sector
Table: Key Players In Japan''s Mass Grocery Retail Sector
Table: Japan''s Population By Age Group ('')
Table: Japan''s Population By Age Group (% of total)
Table: Japan''s Key Population Ratios
Table: Japan''s Rural And Urban Population
Table: Rewards
Table: Risks
Table: Weighting
asset prices and a deteriorating external climate will weigh on consumer sentiment and potentially
dampen domestic demand. That said, we acknowledge that a strong yen and low unemployment will lend
some upward support to near-term domestic demand. Looking beyond the near term, the depleting growth
opportunities in Japan’s consumer-facing sectors mean that international expansion will remain a
strategic priority for domestic food and drink companies such as Lawson and Asahi.
Headline Industry Data (local currency)
2012 per capita food consumption = +0.9%; five-year compound annual growth rate to 2016 =
+0.3%
2012 alcoholic drinks value sales = +2.8%; CAGR growth forecast to 2016 = +0.6%
2012 soft drinks value sales = +4.7%; CAGR growth forecast to 2016 = +2.9%
2012 mass grocery retail sales = +1.5%; CAGR growth forecast to 2016 = +0.3%
Key Industry Trends
Foreign Expansions Accelerating: Japan-based trading house Marubeni has bought US-based
commodity management company Gavilon in a deal worth US$3.6bn. Marubeni has paid US$3.6bn for
the equity in Gavilon and will take the remaining US$2bn in debt. The deal will nearly double Marubeni''s
grain trading volumes and make it one of the world''s largest grain traders. Taiwan-based packaged food
producer Tingyi (Cayman) Islands is planning to enter the meat processing business in an effort to boost
its earnings. The source added that the firm is in discussions with a Japanese partner to jointly
manufacture high-end meat products, such as ham and sausages.
Securing A Stronger Foothold In Drink Sector: Japanese beverage group Asahi Group Holdings
announced it has agreed to buy domestic beverage maker Calpis from Japanese ingredients and cooking
oil firm Ajinomoto. The Mainichi reports that the deal is worth JPY119bn (US$1.5bn) and will be
completed on October 1 2012, when all 73.94mn Calpi shares will be acquired by Asahi Group. Japanbased coffee maker UCC Holdings has entered a definitive agreement with US coffee firm United
Coffee to acquire the latter for nearly JPY50bn (US$613mn). Japan Food & Drink Report Q3 2012 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 8
Risks To Outlook
We are mindful of the external risks posed by economic uncertainties in Japan’s key trading partners,
especially in the eurozone and the US. With the fiscal crisis in Europe spreading from Greece to larger
countries including France, we are concerned that the contraction in spending in these areas could result
in a sharp drop in demand for Japanese products. Should the economic performances in these countries
turn out to be worse than expected, Japan’s growth would be affected, potentially resulting in an
economic recession that extends beyond 2012. This scenario clearly would not bode well for the
consumer and could deal another blow to domestic demand growth.
Japan Food and Drink Industry
Published: August 2012 No. of Pages: 102 Price: US $ 1175
Table of Contents
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT Analysis 9
Japan Food SWOT 9
Japan Drink SWOT . 10
Japan Mass Grocery Retail SWOT 11
Business Environment . 12
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views 12
Table: Core Views 20
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings 21
Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings, Q312 25
Japan’s Food And Drink Business Environment Rating . 26
Macroeconomic Outlook . 27
Table: Economic Activity 30
Industry Forecast Scenario 31
Consumer Outlook 31
Food 33
Food Consumption 33
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts 34
Confectionery . 34
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts 35
Table: Sugar Confectionary . 36
Canned Food . 37
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts 38
Drink . 39
Alcoholic Drinks 39
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts . 41
Table: Beer . 41
Table: Wine . 42
Hot Drinks 43
Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts . 43
Table: Tea 43
Soft Drinks 44
Table: Soft Drinks Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts 45
Table: Carbonates 45
Table: Fruit/Vegetable Juice 46
Table: Bottled Water 46
Mass Grocery Retail 47
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts . 48
Trade . 49
Table: Food & Drink Trade Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts . 50
Food . 51
Key Industry Trends And Developments 51
Foreign Expansions Accelerating 51
Japan Food & Drink Report Q3 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Innovation To Provide Exciting Opportunities For Confectionery Players. 51
High-Spending Consumers Appeal To Foreign Investors . 52
Market Overview . 54
Food Consumption 54
Confectionery . 55
Functional Food 55
Canned Food . 56
Frozen Food 56
Trade. 56
Agriculture 57
Drink . 58
Key Industry Trends And Developments 58
Securing A Stronger Foothold 58
Opportunities Abound In EMs For Yakult 58
Pursuing Geographical Diversification … . 59
…As Well As Sectoral Diversification . 60
Market Overview . 61
Alcoholic Drinks 61
Beer 62
Wine 64
Hot Drinks 64
Soft Drinks 64
Functional Drinks . 65
Mass Grocery Retail 66
Key Industry Trends And Developments 66
Convenience Retail Outperformance In 2012 . 66
Pursuing Sectoral And Geographical Expansions 67
Seven & I And Daiei With Differing Results . 69
Market Overview . 69
Leading MGR Players 70
Table: Structure Of Japan''s Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number of Outlets 72
Table: Structure Of Japan''s Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales By Format (US$bn) 72
Table: Structure Of Japan''s Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales By Format (JPYbn) 72
Table: Average Annual Sales Per Outlet By Format – 2011 73
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts 73
Competitive Landscape 74
Key Players . 74
Table: Key Players In Japan''s Food & Drink Sector . 74
Table: Key Players In Japan''s Mass Grocery Retail Sector 75
Company Monitor 76
Food 76
Ajinomoto. 76
Drink . 78
Asahi Breweries Ltd 78
Kirin 80
Mass Grocery Retail 83
Seven & I Holdings . 83
Japan Food & Drink Report Q3 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 5
Lawson Inc 86
AEON 89
Seiyu . 91
Demographic Outlook 92
Table: Japan''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) 93
Table: Japan''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 94
Table: Japan''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . 95
Table: Japan''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . 95
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology . 96
Table: Rewards 96
Table: Risks 97
Weighting . 97
Table: Weighting 97
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary 98
Food & Drink 98
Mass Grocery Retail 98
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing 100
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts . 100
Sourcing . 101Table: Core Views
Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q
Table: Economic Activity
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Sugar Confectionary
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Beer
Table: Wine
Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Tea
Table: Soft Drinks Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Carbonates
Table: Fruit/Vegetable Juice
Table: Bottled Water
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Food & Drink Trade Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Structure Of Japan''s Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number of Outlets
Table: Structure Of Japan''s Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales By Format (US$bn)
Table: Structure Of Japan''s Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales By Format (JPYbn)
Table: Average Annual Sales Per Outlet By Format –
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Key Players In Japan''s Food & Drink Sector
Table: Key Players In Japan''s Mass Grocery Retail Sector
Table: Japan''s Population By Age Group ('')
Table: Japan''s Population By Age Group (% of total)
Table: Japan''s Key Population Ratios
Table: Japan''s Rural And Urban Population
Table: Rewards
Table: Risks
Table: Weighting
No comments:
Post a Comment