We have revised down our forecast for Polish wheat and barley output in 2012/13 as droughts during
plantings have affected production more than expected. We have also revised down our pork production
forecast for 2013, as this livestock sector has been particularly hurt by high feed prices and low demand.
For dairy, the industry’s export potential supports our positive view on the sector, with recent
acquisitions serving as examples. The government’s recent decision to drop the privatisation of the
country’s largest sugar producer could delay the modernisation process of the industry and put downside
risks to our sugar forecasts.
Key Forecasts
Compared with the US and Brazil, the EU is a relatively small ethanol producer. The EU bioethanol
market represented only about 28% of the total biofuels market in the road transport sector in 2011. The
majority of the production capacity in the EU has been installed in France, Germany, the UK, Spain and
Poland. However, until 2011, most of the EU ethanol plants were functioning below capacity, as they had
just been built and needed a start-up phase to become fully operational. In addition, EU plants have
generally not been competitive compared with their US and Brazilian counterparts. This has led to cheap
imports and endangered local producers’ margins.
Milkiland, a large dairy producer operating in Ukraine and Russia, in September 2012 announced the
acquisition of Mazowiecka Spoldzielnia Mleczarska ‘Ostrowia’, a cheese factory in Eastern Poland, for
PLN49.3mn. The factory is an advanced facility producing a wide range of dairy products, including hard
cheese, curd cheese, yoghurt and processed cheese. It was acquired by Milkiland EU, a newly
established Polish subsidiary of Milkiland Group.
Poland dropped plans to sell KSC, its largest sugar producer, to the firm’s workers and farmers for
PLN1.2bn (US$380mn) because of concerns that the future company would be more vulnerable to hostile
takeovers. The decision took into consideration the risks related to the current mergers and acquisitions
environment as well as potential economic and financial vulnerabilities of the company.
2012 Poland Agribusiness Industry
Published: October 2012 No. of Pages: 84 Price: US $ 1175
Table of Contents
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Poland Agriculture SWOT 7
Poland Business Environment SWOT ... 8
Supply & Demand Analysis . 9
Poland Grains Outlook .. 9
Table: Poland Wheat Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 10
Table: Poland Corn Production, 2011-2016 ... 10
Table: Poland Barley Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 ... 10
Table: Poland Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 14
Table: Poland Corn Production, 2008-2012 ... 14
Table: Poland Barley Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 ... 14
Poland Livestock Outlook 14
Table: Poland Poultry Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 .. 16
Table: Poland Pork Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 .. 16
Table: Poland Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 ... 16
Table: Poland Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 .. 18
Table: Poland Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 .. 18
Table: Poland Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 ... 19
Poland Dairy Outlook .. 19
Table: Poland Milk Production & Consumption, 2011-2016.. 20
Table: Poland Butter Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 20
Table: Poland Cheese Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 .. 21
Table: Poland Milk Production & Consumption, 2008-2012.. 22
Table: Poland Butter Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 22
Table: Poland Cheese Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 .. 22
Poland Rice Outlook 23
Table: Poland Rice Consumption, 2011-2016 23
Table: Poland Rice Consumption, 2008-2012 24
Poland Sugar Outlook.. 24
Table: Poland Sugar Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 25
Table: Poland Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 26
Commodity Price Analysis 28
Monthly Softs Update ... 28
Cocoa: Momentum Waning 29
Coffee: Temporary Rally. 30
Cotton: Forming A Base . 31
Palm Oil: Underperforming The Complex .. 32
Sugar: Scope For A Moderate Rebound . 34
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts .. 35
Monthly Grains Update ... 37
Wheat: Little Relief From Southern Hemisphere 38
Corn: Looking The Weakest 39
Soybean: Prices To Stay Relatively Supported 41
Rice: Still The Underperformer .. 42
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts .. 44
Poland Agribusiness Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Upstream Analysis 45
Europe Fertiliser Outlook 45
Europe GM Outlook . 50
Europe Machinery Outlook .. 54
Downstream Analysis ... 58
Consumer Outlook ... 58
Food. 58
Food Consumption .. 58
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2008-2016 .. 59
Meat 60
Table: Bacon & Ham, 2009-2016 ... 60
Table: Sausage, 2009-2016. 61
Fish . 61
Table: Fish, 2009-2016 ... 61
Frozen Fruit & Vegetables . 63
Table: Frozen Fruit & Vegetables, 2009-2016 ... 63
Pasta ... 64
Table: Pasta, 2009-2016 . 64
Confectionery.. 65
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ... 66
Drink 67
Alcoholic Drinks . 67
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 .. 67
Soft Drinks .. 70
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ... 71
Hot Drinks .. 72
Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ... 72
Mass Grocery Retail 73
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Value Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 74
Trade ... 75
Table: Trade Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ... 75
Country Snapshot . 77
Table: Poland’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000) 78
Table: Poland’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 79
Table: Poland’s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 ... 80
Table: Poland’s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . 80
BMI Forecast Modelling 81
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .. 81Table: Poland Wheat Production & Consumption, -
Table: Poland Corn Production, -
Table: Poland Barley Production & Consumption, -
Table: Poland Wheat Production & Consumption, -
Table: Poland Corn Production, -
Table: Poland Barley Production & Consumption, -
Table: Poland Poultry Production & Consumption, -
Table: Poland Pork Production & Consumption, -
Table: Poland Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, -
Table: Poland Poultry Production & Consumption, -
Table: Poland Pork Production & Consumption, -
Table: Poland Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, -
Table: Poland Milk Production & Consumption, -
Table: Poland Butter Production & Consumption, -
Table: Poland Cheese Production & Consumption, -
Table: Poland Milk Production & Consumption, -
Table: Poland Butter Production & Consumption, -
Table: Poland Cheese Production & Consumption, -
Table: Poland Rice Consumption, -
Table: Poland Rice Consumption, -
Table: Poland Sugar Production & Consumption, -
Table: Poland Sugar Production & Consumption, -
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, -
Table: Bacon & Ham,
Table: Sausage
Table: Fish
plantings have affected production more than expected. We have also revised down our pork production
forecast for 2013, as this livestock sector has been particularly hurt by high feed prices and low demand.
For dairy, the industry’s export potential supports our positive view on the sector, with recent
acquisitions serving as examples. The government’s recent decision to drop the privatisation of the
country’s largest sugar producer could delay the modernisation process of the industry and put downside
risks to our sugar forecasts.
Key Forecasts
- Wheat production growth to 2015/16: 4.6% to 9.8mn tonnes. The EU’s Rural Development Plan 2007-2013, for which Poland has a budget of EUR17.2bn, will encourage consolidation, modernisation of agricultural holdings, and infrastructure improvements in the country’s grains farms, boosting yields of all three grains covered in our report.
- Sugar consumption growth to 2016: -0.4% to 1.7mn tonnes. The recent decision to not privatise Krajowa Spolka Cukrowa (KSC), the country’s largest sugar producer, will prevent significant improvement in competitiveness of the country’s producers, leaving consumer prices for the industry high.
- Poultry production growth to 2015/16: 19.7% to 1.7mn tonnes. Compulsory origin labelling could help to buoy domestic production and secure it against imports. 2013 real GDP growth: 2.7% (down from an expected 2.5% in 2012; predicted to average 3.5% over 2011-2016).
- Consumer price inflation: 3.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) on average for 2013 (slightly down from the 4.1% y-o-y forecast for 2012).
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: 2.8% y-o-y decline to US$17.6bn in 2012/13, forecast to increase on average by 0.2% annually between 2010/11 and 2015/16. Poland Agribusiness Report Q4 2012 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 6
- How Much More Growth? EU-27 – Ethanol Production (‘000 b/d) Source: US Energy Information Association
Compared with the US and Brazil, the EU is a relatively small ethanol producer. The EU bioethanol
market represented only about 28% of the total biofuels market in the road transport sector in 2011. The
majority of the production capacity in the EU has been installed in France, Germany, the UK, Spain and
Poland. However, until 2011, most of the EU ethanol plants were functioning below capacity, as they had
just been built and needed a start-up phase to become fully operational. In addition, EU plants have
generally not been competitive compared with their US and Brazilian counterparts. This has led to cheap
imports and endangered local producers’ margins.
Milkiland, a large dairy producer operating in Ukraine and Russia, in September 2012 announced the
acquisition of Mazowiecka Spoldzielnia Mleczarska ‘Ostrowia’, a cheese factory in Eastern Poland, for
PLN49.3mn. The factory is an advanced facility producing a wide range of dairy products, including hard
cheese, curd cheese, yoghurt and processed cheese. It was acquired by Milkiland EU, a newly
established Polish subsidiary of Milkiland Group.
Poland dropped plans to sell KSC, its largest sugar producer, to the firm’s workers and farmers for
PLN1.2bn (US$380mn) because of concerns that the future company would be more vulnerable to hostile
takeovers. The decision took into consideration the risks related to the current mergers and acquisitions
environment as well as potential economic and financial vulnerabilities of the company.
2012 Poland Agribusiness Industry
Published: October 2012 No. of Pages: 84 Price: US $ 1175
Table of Contents
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Poland Agriculture SWOT 7
Poland Business Environment SWOT ... 8
Supply & Demand Analysis . 9
Poland Grains Outlook .. 9
Table: Poland Wheat Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 10
Table: Poland Corn Production, 2011-2016 ... 10
Table: Poland Barley Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 ... 10
Table: Poland Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 14
Table: Poland Corn Production, 2008-2012 ... 14
Table: Poland Barley Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 ... 14
Poland Livestock Outlook 14
Table: Poland Poultry Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 .. 16
Table: Poland Pork Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 .. 16
Table: Poland Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 ... 16
Table: Poland Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 .. 18
Table: Poland Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 .. 18
Table: Poland Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 ... 19
Poland Dairy Outlook .. 19
Table: Poland Milk Production & Consumption, 2011-2016.. 20
Table: Poland Butter Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 20
Table: Poland Cheese Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 .. 21
Table: Poland Milk Production & Consumption, 2008-2012.. 22
Table: Poland Butter Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 22
Table: Poland Cheese Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 .. 22
Poland Rice Outlook 23
Table: Poland Rice Consumption, 2011-2016 23
Table: Poland Rice Consumption, 2008-2012 24
Poland Sugar Outlook.. 24
Table: Poland Sugar Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 25
Table: Poland Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 26
Commodity Price Analysis 28
Monthly Softs Update ... 28
Cocoa: Momentum Waning 29
Coffee: Temporary Rally. 30
Cotton: Forming A Base . 31
Palm Oil: Underperforming The Complex .. 32
Sugar: Scope For A Moderate Rebound . 34
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts .. 35
Monthly Grains Update ... 37
Wheat: Little Relief From Southern Hemisphere 38
Corn: Looking The Weakest 39
Soybean: Prices To Stay Relatively Supported 41
Rice: Still The Underperformer .. 42
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts .. 44
Poland Agribusiness Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Upstream Analysis 45
Europe Fertiliser Outlook 45
Europe GM Outlook . 50
Europe Machinery Outlook .. 54
Downstream Analysis ... 58
Consumer Outlook ... 58
Food. 58
Food Consumption .. 58
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2008-2016 .. 59
Meat 60
Table: Bacon & Ham, 2009-2016 ... 60
Table: Sausage, 2009-2016. 61
Fish . 61
Table: Fish, 2009-2016 ... 61
Frozen Fruit & Vegetables . 63
Table: Frozen Fruit & Vegetables, 2009-2016 ... 63
Pasta ... 64
Table: Pasta, 2009-2016 . 64
Confectionery.. 65
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ... 66
Drink 67
Alcoholic Drinks . 67
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 .. 67
Soft Drinks .. 70
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ... 71
Hot Drinks .. 72
Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ... 72
Mass Grocery Retail 73
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Value Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 74
Trade ... 75
Table: Trade Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ... 75
Country Snapshot . 77
Table: Poland’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000) 78
Table: Poland’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 79
Table: Poland’s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 ... 80
Table: Poland’s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . 80
BMI Forecast Modelling 81
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .. 81Table: Poland Wheat Production & Consumption, -
Table: Poland Corn Production, -
Table: Poland Barley Production & Consumption, -
Table: Poland Wheat Production & Consumption, -
Table: Poland Corn Production, -
Table: Poland Barley Production & Consumption, -
Table: Poland Poultry Production & Consumption, -
Table: Poland Pork Production & Consumption, -
Table: Poland Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, -
Table: Poland Poultry Production & Consumption, -
Table: Poland Pork Production & Consumption, -
Table: Poland Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, -
Table: Poland Milk Production & Consumption, -
Table: Poland Butter Production & Consumption, -
Table: Poland Cheese Production & Consumption, -
Table: Poland Milk Production & Consumption, -
Table: Poland Butter Production & Consumption, -
Table: Poland Cheese Production & Consumption, -
Table: Poland Rice Consumption, -
Table: Poland Rice Consumption, -
Table: Poland Sugar Production & Consumption, -
Table: Poland Sugar Production & Consumption, -
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, -
Table: Bacon & Ham,
Table: Sausage
Table: Fish
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