For a country keen to wean itself off of fossil fuels, the decision to phase out nuclear energy
represents a fresh and unwelcome challenge. Gas consumption seems certain to grow more quickly than
expected as demand for power rises – until the energy void can be filled through the expansion of
renewable sources. Refining capacity is being scaled back to do disappointing returns, so Germany must
reduce its consumption of oil products in order to avoid becoming overly dependent on costly imports.
The main trends and developments we highlight in Germany’s oil and gas sector are:
A group led by Macquarie Group in May 2012 agreed to pay EUR3.2bn to German utility
E.ON for a network of natural-gas pipelines in Germany. The price for Open Grid Europe,
Germany’s biggest gas transmission system, includes adjustments for pensions and other assets,
E.ON said in a statement. The buyers include German reinsurer Munich Re, the Abu Dhabi
Investment Authority and British Columbia Investment Management, E.ON said.
The Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) has issued a report which
has upgraded Germany''s shale gas potential to an estimated 6.8-22.6bn cubic metres (bcm) of
reserves. The findings may have little impact on the parliamentary committee currently studying
Germany''s shale gas potential. The body is expected to report its findings before the end of 2012.
The controversial hydraulic fracturing (fraccing) process has been in use in Germany at low
levels since the 1990s, but increased public scrutiny has increased uncertainty over prospects for
any large-scale effort to develop unconventional gas resources.
US oil major ExxonMobil is to press ahead with the search for shale gas in Germany, and will
also continue to launch conventional gas production initiatives, according to the company''s head
of Central European operations, Gernot Kalkoffen. This is despite doubts over the environmental
impact of fraccing.
The European Commission in August 2012 approved regulatory clearance for Gunvor Group’s
acquisition of the assets of the Petroplus refinery in Ingolstadt and related German marketing
activities. The 100,000b/d plant is one of the best-performing European refineries, according to
Gunvor, with a strong regional footprint in Germany’s Bavaria region. Gunvor already trades the
crude oils processed by the Ingolstadt refinery, it said, enabling greater efficiencies for the plant.
Royal Dutch Shell is shortly to close its Harburg refinery following a fruitless search for a
buyer. It will convert the main part of the facility into a fuels terminal. The base oil plant at the
site will, however, be disassociated and sold to Nynas under a deal agreed in December 2011.
Germany Oil & Gas Report Q4 2012 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 6
Gas consumption now represents 23% of primary energy demand (PED), accounting for 11% of
power generation. Its share of the power market is rising fast and gas demand should rise. Our
forecast is for demand to rise from an estimated 97.9bcm in 2012 to 113.0bcm by 2016, then
reaching 135bcm by 2021. Germany’s gas production is forecast to fall from around 12.0bcm in
2012 to no more than 9.0bcm over the period, unless shale gas drilling activity is stepped up and
delivers early results. End-period gas imports are currently forecast at 126bcm.
The recent decision to eliminate nuclear power generation raises questions with regard to
medium-term hydrocarbons use, with both oil and gas likely to have a larger-than-expected share
of overall energy demand and power generation. BMI is assuming that oil consumption of
2.40mn b/d in 2012 will rise to 2.49mn b/d in 2016 and to 2.60mn b/d by 2021, requiring net
imports of 2.51mn b/d by the end of the forecast period.
Crude imports will cost the government some US$81.0bn in 2016, compared with an estimated
US$88.6bn in 2012. The cost of gas imports by 2016 is estimated at US$47.3bn, taking the total for
combined crude oil and natural gas import costs to US$128.3bn. At the time of writing we assume an
OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$107.05/bbl, falling to US$99.10/bbl in 2013.The assumptions for
2016 and 2021 are US$93.25 and US$91.50/bbl respectively.
Germany Oil and Gas Industry to 2016
Published: October 2012 No. of Pages: 86 Price: US $ 1175
Table of Contents
represents a fresh and unwelcome challenge. Gas consumption seems certain to grow more quickly than
expected as demand for power rises – until the energy void can be filled through the expansion of
renewable sources. Refining capacity is being scaled back to do disappointing returns, so Germany must
reduce its consumption of oil products in order to avoid becoming overly dependent on costly imports.
The main trends and developments we highlight in Germany’s oil and gas sector are:
A group led by Macquarie Group in May 2012 agreed to pay EUR3.2bn to German utility
E.ON for a network of natural-gas pipelines in Germany. The price for Open Grid Europe,
Germany’s biggest gas transmission system, includes adjustments for pensions and other assets,
E.ON said in a statement. The buyers include German reinsurer Munich Re, the Abu Dhabi
Investment Authority and British Columbia Investment Management, E.ON said.
The Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) has issued a report which
has upgraded Germany''s shale gas potential to an estimated 6.8-22.6bn cubic metres (bcm) of
reserves. The findings may have little impact on the parliamentary committee currently studying
Germany''s shale gas potential. The body is expected to report its findings before the end of 2012.
The controversial hydraulic fracturing (fraccing) process has been in use in Germany at low
levels since the 1990s, but increased public scrutiny has increased uncertainty over prospects for
any large-scale effort to develop unconventional gas resources.
US oil major ExxonMobil is to press ahead with the search for shale gas in Germany, and will
also continue to launch conventional gas production initiatives, according to the company''s head
of Central European operations, Gernot Kalkoffen. This is despite doubts over the environmental
impact of fraccing.
The European Commission in August 2012 approved regulatory clearance for Gunvor Group’s
acquisition of the assets of the Petroplus refinery in Ingolstadt and related German marketing
activities. The 100,000b/d plant is one of the best-performing European refineries, according to
Gunvor, with a strong regional footprint in Germany’s Bavaria region. Gunvor already trades the
crude oils processed by the Ingolstadt refinery, it said, enabling greater efficiencies for the plant.
Royal Dutch Shell is shortly to close its Harburg refinery following a fruitless search for a
buyer. It will convert the main part of the facility into a fuels terminal. The base oil plant at the
site will, however, be disassociated and sold to Nynas under a deal agreed in December 2011.
Germany Oil & Gas Report Q4 2012 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 6
Gas consumption now represents 23% of primary energy demand (PED), accounting for 11% of
power generation. Its share of the power market is rising fast and gas demand should rise. Our
forecast is for demand to rise from an estimated 97.9bcm in 2012 to 113.0bcm by 2016, then
reaching 135bcm by 2021. Germany’s gas production is forecast to fall from around 12.0bcm in
2012 to no more than 9.0bcm over the period, unless shale gas drilling activity is stepped up and
delivers early results. End-period gas imports are currently forecast at 126bcm.
The recent decision to eliminate nuclear power generation raises questions with regard to
medium-term hydrocarbons use, with both oil and gas likely to have a larger-than-expected share
of overall energy demand and power generation. BMI is assuming that oil consumption of
2.40mn b/d in 2012 will rise to 2.49mn b/d in 2016 and to 2.60mn b/d by 2021, requiring net
imports of 2.51mn b/d by the end of the forecast period.
Crude imports will cost the government some US$81.0bn in 2016, compared with an estimated
US$88.6bn in 2012. The cost of gas imports by 2016 is estimated at US$47.3bn, taking the total for
combined crude oil and natural gas import costs to US$128.3bn. At the time of writing we assume an
OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$107.05/bbl, falling to US$99.10/bbl in 2013.The assumptions for
2016 and 2021 are US$93.25 and US$91.50/bbl respectively.
Germany Oil and Gas Industry to 2016
Published: October 2012 No. of Pages: 86 Price: US $ 1175
Table of Contents
BMI Industry View... 5
SWOT Analysis ... 7
Germany Oil and Gas SWOT 7
Global Energy Market Outlook ... 8
Oil: Getting Closer To Emerging Markets Inflection Point .. 8
Regional Energy Market Outlook. 16
Germany Energy Market Overview .. 22
Industry Forecast Scenario .. 24
Oil and Gas Reserves... 26
Oil Supply And Demand... 27
Gas Supply And Demand . 28
LNG . 28
Refining and Oil Products Trade . 29
Revenues/Import Costs. 29
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 29
Oil And Gas Infrastructure... 30
Oil Refineries ... 30
Service Stations 34
Oil Pipelines 34
Oil Terminals ... 35
Oil Storage... 35
Gas Pipelines ... 35
Gas Storage . 38
LNG Terminals 39
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings .. 40
Germany Upstream Rating – Overview .. 45
Germany Upstream Rating – Rewards 45
Germany Upstream Rating – Risks . 45
Germany Downstream Rating – Overview.. 46
Competitive Landscape ... 47
Executive Summary.. 47
Overview/State Role. 48
Germany Oil & Gas Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Licensing/Regulation .. 49
Government Policy . 50
International Energy Relations ... 51
Company Monitor . 53
Royal Dutch Shell 53
BP 55
Total. 57
ExxonMobil.. 59
PKN ORLEN 61
OMV 63
Gazprom – Summary... 65
Rhein Petroleum – Summary... 65
RWE – Summary . 66
E.ON – Summary 67
Wintershall – Summary... 67
Others – Summary .. 68
Developed Europe – Regional Appendix 70
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 77
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 78
Ratings Overview. 78
Indicators. 79
Glossary Of Terms 82
Table: Glossary Of Terms... 82
BMI Methodology.. 84
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .. 84
Energy Industry 84
Cross checks 85
Sources. 85
SWOT Analysis ... 7
Germany Oil and Gas SWOT 7
Global Energy Market Outlook ... 8
Oil: Getting Closer To Emerging Markets Inflection Point .. 8
Regional Energy Market Outlook. 16
Germany Energy Market Overview .. 22
Industry Forecast Scenario .. 24
Oil and Gas Reserves... 26
Oil Supply And Demand... 27
Gas Supply And Demand . 28
LNG . 28
Refining and Oil Products Trade . 29
Revenues/Import Costs. 29
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 29
Oil And Gas Infrastructure... 30
Oil Refineries ... 30
Service Stations 34
Oil Pipelines 34
Oil Terminals ... 35
Oil Storage... 35
Gas Pipelines ... 35
Gas Storage . 38
LNG Terminals 39
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings .. 40
Germany Upstream Rating – Overview .. 45
Germany Upstream Rating – Rewards 45
Germany Upstream Rating – Risks . 45
Germany Downstream Rating – Overview.. 46
Competitive Landscape ... 47
Executive Summary.. 47
Overview/State Role. 48
Germany Oil & Gas Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Licensing/Regulation .. 49
Government Policy . 50
International Energy Relations ... 51
Company Monitor . 53
Royal Dutch Shell 53
BP 55
Total. 57
ExxonMobil.. 59
PKN ORLEN 61
OMV 63
Gazprom – Summary... 65
Rhein Petroleum – Summary... 65
RWE – Summary . 66
E.ON – Summary 67
Wintershall – Summary... 67
Others – Summary .. 68
Developed Europe – Regional Appendix 70
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 77
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 78
Ratings Overview. 78
Indicators. 79
Glossary Of Terms 82
Table: Glossary Of Terms... 82
BMI Methodology.. 84
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .. 84
Energy Industry 84
Cross checks 85
Sources. 85
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