Despite tight sanctions on imports of goods including agriculture, we believe Iran is still
relatively sufficiently stocked to avert any significant food shortage in the near future. At the same time,
the replacement of regular trade for barter can be seen as a feasible, albeit temporary, way of
circumventing sanctions to meet all demand. Over the longer term, we believe that the continued
investment by the government to improve infrastructure – such as implementing pressurised irrigation
networks and correcting irrigation methods – will yield longer-term results in terms of better-quality
grains, including rice.
Key Forecasts
Rice consumption growth to 2015/16: 8.8% to 3.5mn tonnes in 2016. Over the longer term,
we believe that steadily rising disposable incomes will lead to consumers trading up from corn
and particularly from wheat-and-vegetable-based dishes to more meat-and-rice-based meals.
Beef consumption growth to 2015/16: 9.8% to 664,300 tonnes. We have revised down our
forecast owing to our expectations for a slump in demand as sanctions exert a squeeze on
availability and incomes.
Milk consumption growth to 2015/16: 17.4% to 3.4mn tonnes. Per capita consumption is
forecast to rise by a smaller 11.7%, suggesting that population growth surpasses consumption
growth per capita.
2012 real GDP growth: -1.2% (compared with growth of 0.7% in 2011; predicted to average
1.05% from 2011-2016).
Consumer price inflation: 20.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2012 (up from 24.5% y-o-y in 2011;
predicted to average 20.4% from 2011-2016).
Industry Developments
Iran’s largest rice supplier, KRBL Limited, which is also the largest Indian exporter of basmati rice, is
reportedly looking to East and West Africa for new markets in the wake of falling global rice prices and
export restrictions to Iran, the largest buyer of Basmati rice. LT Foods, which exports to Iran and is
another major Indian rice exporter, is also allegedly sourcing for new markets to sell to. That said, any fall
in supply of rice from India is not expected to make a significant dent in the country’s imports of the
grain, as Argentina has started to step in to fill the shortage. After a 20-year break from exporting rice to
Iran, the country is set to export 14,000 tonnes in its first shipment and 16,000 tonnes in October 2012.
Moreover, the US Department of Agriculture forecasts imports of rice to remain stable at 1.9mn tonnes
for 2012. Iran Agribusiness Report Q4 2012 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 6
The most significant development so far in 2012 has been the major intervention by the Iranian
authorities – via the Government Trading Corporation – in acquiring vital agricultural commodities. Iran
imported around 3mn tonnes of bread wheat in March alone and is negotiating further supplies from
India. The South Asian country has a large trade deficit with Iran due to its oil imports and has begun to
pay up to 40% in rupees to circumvent US and EU financial sanctions. Iran in turn is using these revenues
to make deals for Indian rice, sugar and soybean. Uruguay is also offering to continue rice exports to Iran
in exchange for oil in a similar effort.
Reuters reported in May that Iran is attempting to secure feed grains for the livestock sector. Private
traders have been unable to finance the imports themselves because the US has enforced a boycott of
financial transactions with Iranian banks. The aforementioned government intervention has gone some
way towards preventing shortages in the short term, but it remains to be seen how long this activity can be
maintained if sanctions continue.
Iran Agribusiness Industry
Published: September 2012 No. of Pages: 51 Price: US $ 1175
Table of Contents
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Iran Agriculture SWOT . 7
Iran Business Environment SWOT 8
Supply & Demand Analysis . 9
Iran Livestock Outlook ... 9
Table: Iran Poultry Production & Consumption, 2011-2016.. 10
Table: Iran Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 ... 10
Table: Iran Poultry Production & Consumption, 2007-2012.. 11
Table: Iran Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 ... 11
Iran Rice Outlook. 12
Table: Iran Rice Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 .. 13
Table: Iran Rice Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 .. 14
Iran Sugar Outlook .. 15
Table: Iran Sugar Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 15
Table: Iran Sugar Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 16
Iran Dairy Outlook .. 17
Table: Iran Milk Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 .. 17
Table: Iran Milk Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 .. 18
Iran Grains Outlook . 18
Table: Iran Wheat Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 ... 19
Table: Iran Corn Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 20
Table: Iran Barley Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 ... 20
Table: Iran Wheat Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 ... 22
Table: Iran Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 . 22
Table: Iran Barley Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 ... 22
Commodity Price Analysis 24
Monthly Grains Update ... 24
Wheat: Little Potential For Export Restrictions .. 24
Corn: US Downgrades Tighten Market Further . 27
Soybean: South America In The Spotlight ... 29
Rice: The Only Well-Supplied Grain Market .. 31
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts .. 32
Monthly Softs Update ... 33
Cocoa: Looking Supported . 33
Coffee: Supported In Short Term 36
Palm Oil: Heading Back To Support .. 38
Sugar: Searching For Support 40
Cotton: Still In A Downward Trend Channel .. 42
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts .. 43
Country Snapshot . 44
Table: Iran’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000) ... 45
Table: Iran’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 46
Table: Iran’s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 47
Table: Iran’s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . 47
Iran Agribusiness Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
BMI Forecast Modelling 48
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .. 48Table: Iran Poultry Production & Consumption
Table: Iran Beef & Veal Production & Consumption
Table: Iran Poultry Production & Consumption
Table: Iran Beef & Veal Production & Consumption
Table: Iran Rice Production & Consumption
Table: Iran Rice Production & Consumption
Table: Iran Sugar Production & Consumption
Table: Iran Sugar Production & Consumption
Table: Iran Milk Production & Consumption
Table: Iran Milk Production & Consumption
Table: Iran Wheat Production & Consumption
Table: Iran Corn Production & Consumption
Table: Iran Barley Production & Consumption
Table: Iran Wheat Production & Consumption
Table: Iran Corn Production & Consumption
Table: Iran Barley Production & Consumption
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts
Table: Iran’s Population By Age Group (‘)
Table: Iran’s Population By Age Group (% of total)
Table: Iran’s Key Population Ratios
Table: Iran’s Rural And Urban Population
relatively sufficiently stocked to avert any significant food shortage in the near future. At the same time,
the replacement of regular trade for barter can be seen as a feasible, albeit temporary, way of
circumventing sanctions to meet all demand. Over the longer term, we believe that the continued
investment by the government to improve infrastructure – such as implementing pressurised irrigation
networks and correcting irrigation methods – will yield longer-term results in terms of better-quality
grains, including rice.
Key Forecasts
Rice consumption growth to 2015/16: 8.8% to 3.5mn tonnes in 2016. Over the longer term,
we believe that steadily rising disposable incomes will lead to consumers trading up from corn
and particularly from wheat-and-vegetable-based dishes to more meat-and-rice-based meals.
Beef consumption growth to 2015/16: 9.8% to 664,300 tonnes. We have revised down our
forecast owing to our expectations for a slump in demand as sanctions exert a squeeze on
availability and incomes.
Milk consumption growth to 2015/16: 17.4% to 3.4mn tonnes. Per capita consumption is
forecast to rise by a smaller 11.7%, suggesting that population growth surpasses consumption
growth per capita.
2012 real GDP growth: -1.2% (compared with growth of 0.7% in 2011; predicted to average
1.05% from 2011-2016).
Consumer price inflation: 20.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2012 (up from 24.5% y-o-y in 2011;
predicted to average 20.4% from 2011-2016).
Industry Developments
Iran’s largest rice supplier, KRBL Limited, which is also the largest Indian exporter of basmati rice, is
reportedly looking to East and West Africa for new markets in the wake of falling global rice prices and
export restrictions to Iran, the largest buyer of Basmati rice. LT Foods, which exports to Iran and is
another major Indian rice exporter, is also allegedly sourcing for new markets to sell to. That said, any fall
in supply of rice from India is not expected to make a significant dent in the country’s imports of the
grain, as Argentina has started to step in to fill the shortage. After a 20-year break from exporting rice to
Iran, the country is set to export 14,000 tonnes in its first shipment and 16,000 tonnes in October 2012.
Moreover, the US Department of Agriculture forecasts imports of rice to remain stable at 1.9mn tonnes
for 2012. Iran Agribusiness Report Q4 2012 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 6
The most significant development so far in 2012 has been the major intervention by the Iranian
authorities – via the Government Trading Corporation – in acquiring vital agricultural commodities. Iran
imported around 3mn tonnes of bread wheat in March alone and is negotiating further supplies from
India. The South Asian country has a large trade deficit with Iran due to its oil imports and has begun to
pay up to 40% in rupees to circumvent US and EU financial sanctions. Iran in turn is using these revenues
to make deals for Indian rice, sugar and soybean. Uruguay is also offering to continue rice exports to Iran
in exchange for oil in a similar effort.
Reuters reported in May that Iran is attempting to secure feed grains for the livestock sector. Private
traders have been unable to finance the imports themselves because the US has enforced a boycott of
financial transactions with Iranian banks. The aforementioned government intervention has gone some
way towards preventing shortages in the short term, but it remains to be seen how long this activity can be
maintained if sanctions continue.
Iran Agribusiness Industry
Published: September 2012 No. of Pages: 51 Price: US $ 1175
Table of Contents
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Iran Agriculture SWOT . 7
Iran Business Environment SWOT 8
Supply & Demand Analysis . 9
Iran Livestock Outlook ... 9
Table: Iran Poultry Production & Consumption, 2011-2016.. 10
Table: Iran Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 ... 10
Table: Iran Poultry Production & Consumption, 2007-2012.. 11
Table: Iran Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 ... 11
Iran Rice Outlook. 12
Table: Iran Rice Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 .. 13
Table: Iran Rice Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 .. 14
Iran Sugar Outlook .. 15
Table: Iran Sugar Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 15
Table: Iran Sugar Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 16
Iran Dairy Outlook .. 17
Table: Iran Milk Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 .. 17
Table: Iran Milk Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 .. 18
Iran Grains Outlook . 18
Table: Iran Wheat Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 ... 19
Table: Iran Corn Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 20
Table: Iran Barley Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 ... 20
Table: Iran Wheat Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 ... 22
Table: Iran Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 . 22
Table: Iran Barley Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 ... 22
Commodity Price Analysis 24
Monthly Grains Update ... 24
Wheat: Little Potential For Export Restrictions .. 24
Corn: US Downgrades Tighten Market Further . 27
Soybean: South America In The Spotlight ... 29
Rice: The Only Well-Supplied Grain Market .. 31
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts .. 32
Monthly Softs Update ... 33
Cocoa: Looking Supported . 33
Coffee: Supported In Short Term 36
Palm Oil: Heading Back To Support .. 38
Sugar: Searching For Support 40
Cotton: Still In A Downward Trend Channel .. 42
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts .. 43
Country Snapshot . 44
Table: Iran’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000) ... 45
Table: Iran’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 46
Table: Iran’s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 47
Table: Iran’s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . 47
Iran Agribusiness Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
BMI Forecast Modelling 48
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .. 48Table: Iran Poultry Production & Consumption
Table: Iran Beef & Veal Production & Consumption
Table: Iran Poultry Production & Consumption
Table: Iran Beef & Veal Production & Consumption
Table: Iran Rice Production & Consumption
Table: Iran Rice Production & Consumption
Table: Iran Sugar Production & Consumption
Table: Iran Sugar Production & Consumption
Table: Iran Milk Production & Consumption
Table: Iran Milk Production & Consumption
Table: Iran Wheat Production & Consumption
Table: Iran Corn Production & Consumption
Table: Iran Barley Production & Consumption
Table: Iran Wheat Production & Consumption
Table: Iran Corn Production & Consumption
Table: Iran Barley Production & Consumption
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts
Table: Iran’s Population By Age Group (‘)
Table: Iran’s Population By Age Group (% of total)
Table: Iran’s Key Population Ratios
Table: Iran’s Rural And Urban Population
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