Ghana’s nascent oil and gas industry is set to undergo a rapid
transformation over the next few years as the Jubilee and Greater
Tweneboa projects ramp up to full production. Associated natural gas
output is also likely to gather pace once adequate infrastructure is in
place. This is set to help the country meet rapidly rising demand from
power generation and reduce its dependence on imported Nigerian volumes.
The main trends and developments we highlight for Ghana’s oil and gas sector are:
Ghana’s reserves are likely to continue to grow at a rapid rate as the appraisal of the Greater Tweneboa, Southeastern Jubilee and West Cape Three Points prospects continues. The end-2010 Oil & Gas Journal (OGJ) annual reserves and production survey attributes 660mn barrels (bbl) of proven oil reserves to the country. BMI estimates that resource base will grow to 730mn bbl by 2016.
Production from the Tullow Oil-operated Jubilee field is rising after a disappointing H112. Output is expected to rise towards 90,000b/d by year-end, but will still be well below nameplate capacity of 120,000b/d. The shortfall is largely due to well completion difficulties. These issues are not expected to have any impact on field resources and production is expected to ramp up gradually towards floating, production, storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel capacity by ‘early
2013’, according to Tullow.
Oil consumption is set to rise rapidly on the back of strong economic growth. We expect demand to hit an estimated 70,000b/d in 2012, rising to 92,000b/d by 2016. Higher refined product imports will therefore be required as refinery capacity remains restricted to 45,000b/d. We expect this capacity to rise to as much as 245,000b/d over the long term, but new facilities are unlikely to be brought onstream much before 2018.
We expect net oil exports to grow from approximately 18,000b/d in 2012 to 108,000b/d by 2016. A US$3bn loan from the China Development Bank is set to fund new midstream gas infrastructure capacity, facilitating a gradual increase in gas production over the coming years as domestic demand from power generation gathers pace. One key risk to this comes from elections which are due to take place in December 2012. The opposition New Patriotic Party (NPP) has
pledged to revisit Chinese loan deals if it wins a majority. That could cause serious delays to the development of new infrastructure. We forecast an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$107.05/bbl, which we see falling to US$99.10/bbl
in 2013. Global GDP in 2012 is forecast at 2.6%, down from an estimated 3.0% in 2011, reflecting slowing growth in China, a faltering recovery in the US and a worsening eurozone debt crisis.
Ghana Oil and Gas Industry
Published: October 2012 No. of Pages: 67 Price: US $ 1175
Table of Contents
BMI Industry View ... 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Ghana Oil and Gas SWOT 6
Global Energy Market Outlook 7
Oil: Getting Closer To Emerging Markets Inflection Point .. 7
Regional Energy Market Outlook .. 15
Ghana Energy Market Overview ... 19
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 21
Oil And Gas Reserves .. 21
Oil Supply And Demand ... 25
Gas Supply And Demand . 26
LNG . 27
Refining And Oil Products Trade . 27
Revenues/Import Costs. 28
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 29
Oil Refineries ... 29
Service Stations 29
Oil Terminals/Ports . 29
Gas Pipelines ... 30
Regional And Country Risk/Reward Ratings .. 31
Ghana Upstream Rewards .. 36
Ghana Upstream Risks ... 36
Ghana Downstream Scores . 36
Competitive Landscape 37
Executive Summary .. 37
Overview/State Role . 39
Licensing and Regulation ... 39
Licensing Rounds 40
Company Monitor .. 41
Tullow Oil ... 41
Kosmos Energy ... 45
Lukoil – Summary ... 47
Eni – Summary 47
Hess – Summary . 48
Ghana Oil & Gas Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Statoil – Summary ... 48
Anadarko – Summary .. 49
Tap Oil – Summary . 49
Africa – Regional Appendix .. 50
LNG Net Exports, bcm 2009-2016 .. 57
LNG Net Exports, bcm 2014-2021 .. 57
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts . 58
Glossary Of Terms 59
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 61
Ratings Overview . 61
Indicators . 62
BMI Methodology .. 65
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .. 65
Energy Industry ... 65
Cross checks 66
The main trends and developments we highlight for Ghana’s oil and gas sector are:
Ghana’s reserves are likely to continue to grow at a rapid rate as the appraisal of the Greater Tweneboa, Southeastern Jubilee and West Cape Three Points prospects continues. The end-2010 Oil & Gas Journal (OGJ) annual reserves and production survey attributes 660mn barrels (bbl) of proven oil reserves to the country. BMI estimates that resource base will grow to 730mn bbl by 2016.
Production from the Tullow Oil-operated Jubilee field is rising after a disappointing H112. Output is expected to rise towards 90,000b/d by year-end, but will still be well below nameplate capacity of 120,000b/d. The shortfall is largely due to well completion difficulties. These issues are not expected to have any impact on field resources and production is expected to ramp up gradually towards floating, production, storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel capacity by ‘early
2013’, according to Tullow.
Oil consumption is set to rise rapidly on the back of strong economic growth. We expect demand to hit an estimated 70,000b/d in 2012, rising to 92,000b/d by 2016. Higher refined product imports will therefore be required as refinery capacity remains restricted to 45,000b/d. We expect this capacity to rise to as much as 245,000b/d over the long term, but new facilities are unlikely to be brought onstream much before 2018.
We expect net oil exports to grow from approximately 18,000b/d in 2012 to 108,000b/d by 2016. A US$3bn loan from the China Development Bank is set to fund new midstream gas infrastructure capacity, facilitating a gradual increase in gas production over the coming years as domestic demand from power generation gathers pace. One key risk to this comes from elections which are due to take place in December 2012. The opposition New Patriotic Party (NPP) has
pledged to revisit Chinese loan deals if it wins a majority. That could cause serious delays to the development of new infrastructure. We forecast an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$107.05/bbl, which we see falling to US$99.10/bbl
in 2013. Global GDP in 2012 is forecast at 2.6%, down from an estimated 3.0% in 2011, reflecting slowing growth in China, a faltering recovery in the US and a worsening eurozone debt crisis.
Ghana Oil and Gas Industry
Published: October 2012 No. of Pages: 67 Price: US $ 1175
Table of Contents
BMI Industry View ... 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Ghana Oil and Gas SWOT 6
Global Energy Market Outlook 7
Oil: Getting Closer To Emerging Markets Inflection Point .. 7
Regional Energy Market Outlook .. 15
Ghana Energy Market Overview ... 19
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 21
Oil And Gas Reserves .. 21
Oil Supply And Demand ... 25
Gas Supply And Demand . 26
LNG . 27
Refining And Oil Products Trade . 27
Revenues/Import Costs. 28
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 29
Oil Refineries ... 29
Service Stations 29
Oil Terminals/Ports . 29
Gas Pipelines ... 30
Regional And Country Risk/Reward Ratings .. 31
Ghana Upstream Rewards .. 36
Ghana Upstream Risks ... 36
Ghana Downstream Scores . 36
Competitive Landscape 37
Executive Summary .. 37
Overview/State Role . 39
Licensing and Regulation ... 39
Licensing Rounds 40
Company Monitor .. 41
Tullow Oil ... 41
Kosmos Energy ... 45
Lukoil – Summary ... 47
Eni – Summary 47
Hess – Summary . 48
Ghana Oil & Gas Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Statoil – Summary ... 48
Anadarko – Summary .. 49
Tap Oil – Summary . 49
Africa – Regional Appendix .. 50
LNG Net Exports, bcm 2009-2016 .. 57
LNG Net Exports, bcm 2014-2021 .. 57
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts . 58
Glossary Of Terms 59
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 61
Ratings Overview . 61
Indicators . 62
BMI Methodology .. 65
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .. 65
Energy Industry ... 65
Cross checks 66
No comments:
Post a Comment