India Oil and Gas Report Q3 2012

While India’s upstream oil prospects appear to be limited, the discovery and ongoing development
of significant gas resources has changed the import picture for the better, but has thrown the gas sector into
turmoil as the industry struggles to assess its future LNG needs. Demand trends remain healthy and there is a
requirement for continued investment in refining capacity and a growing reliance on foreign crude. Licensing
remains a hit and miss process, with disappointing results from the most recent round likely to trigger changes
to the licensing process.

We highlight these trends and developments in India’s oil and gas sector:

• India’s average oil and liquids production for 2012 is assumed by BMI to be 1.03mn barrels per day (b/d). We are predicting 1.11mn b/d of peak production in 2015, which we expect to decline to 1.04mn b/d by 2021. Given forecast consumption of 4.95mn b/d, implied 2021 oil imports are put at 3.96mn b/d. BMI’s demand outlook suggests consumption of an estimated 3.28mn b/d in 2011 will rise steadily to 4.09mn b/d by 2016.
• Gas demand is rising fast across the industrial, residential and power sectors. Consumption has risen more than 160% since 1995. Average annual demand growth of at least 6% is forecast over the next several years, accelerating as domestic field development and liquefied natural gas (LNG) import deals make more gas available. We are assuming 2012 gas production will be around 55bn cubic metres (bcm). We are predicting total gas consumption of around 91.5bcm in 2016, up from an estimated 71.1bcm in 2012. By 2021, demand is put at 128.3bcm, requiring imports of 43.3bcm.
• Growth in near-term oil production is expected from the Rajasthan block, while we see gas production in the KG Basin recovering following BP’s farm-in with Reliance. Greater development of offshore and unconventional gas resources should result in a rise in gas production, although this rise will not be enough to reduce LNG imports, which will also rise concomitant with demand.
• In March 2012, India''s government announced the results of the NELP IX licensing round, almost a year since its conclusion. Of the 34 blocks on offer, only 16 blocks have been awarded licenses. Staterun oil companies dominated the tender, obtaining operating rights for almost half of the awarded blocks. Also significant is the number of unsuccessful bids for deepwater blocks. India could hold its first shale licensing round by end-2013, according to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. On March 23 2012, he said: ''The mapping of India''s shale gas resources has been undertaken and we are working to put in place a regulatory regime for licensing rounds by end-2013.''
• India’s refining segment will enjoy rapid expansion over the coming decade, with new projects adding to the country’s already-large refining capacity. India is set to overtake Singapore as Asia’s top exporter of refined fuels over the forecast period (2011-21).
• India’s import dependency will become increasingly expensive. At the time of writing we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$111.47/bbl, falling to US$107.00/bbl in 2013. For 2012, oil and gas import costs are put at US$105.4bn, but could reach US$117.8bn in 2016 and rise to US$159.3bn by 2021.

Indian Oil and Gas Industry Report Q3 2012

Published: June 2012         No. of Pages: 111          Price:  US $ 1175         

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT Analysis 9
India Oil & Gas SWOT... 9
Global Energy Market Outlook. 10
Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) .. 10
Table: Oil Consumption Forecast, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) 16
Regional Energy Market Outlook. 17
India Energy Market Overview . 22
Table: India – Upstream Project Database .. 23
Industry Forecast Scenario .. 24
Table: Oil & Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016. 24
Table: Oil & Gas – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 25
Oil And Gas Reserves . 26
Oil Supply And Demand.. 27
Gas Supply And Demand 29
Unconventional Gas 30
LNG. 32
Refining And Oil Products Trade ... 33
Revenues/Import Costs 34
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario.. 34
Oil and Gas Infrastructure 35
Oil Refineries . 35
Table: Refineries In India.. 35
Bina Refinery . 36
Vizag Refinery 36
Paradip Refinery 37
Bhatinda Refinery .. 37
Other Refinery Projects . 37
Service Stations.. 38
Oil Storage Facilities. 38
Oil Pipelines .. 38
LNG Terminals .. 38
Table: LNG Terminals In India. 39
Ratnagiri LNG ... 39
Kochi LNG. 40
Orissa LNG 40
Gas Storage Facilities ... 40
Gas Pipelines . 41
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings .. 43
Table: Upstream Risk / Reward Ratings ... 47
Table: Downstream Risk / Reward Ratings .. 47
India Upstream Rating – Overview... 48
India Upstream Rating – Rewards 48
India Upstream Rating – Risks.. 48
Regional Downstream Risks/Rewards... 49
India Downstream Rating – Overview .. 49
Competitive Landscape 50
Table: Key Players – India Oil And Gas Sector ... 51
Overview/State Role 52
Licensing and Regulation .. 52
Government Policy 53
Licensing Rounds... 55
International Energy Relations . 57
Table: Key Upstream Players 58
Table: Key Downstream Players... 58
Company Monitor .. 59
Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) .. 59
Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) 62
Reliance Industries.. 65
Oil India Ltd (OIL).. 69
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL). 72
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL)... 75
GAIL (India) 77
Cairn India.. 80
Essar Oil.. 82
Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation 85
Petronet LNG.. 88
BP – Summary ... 90
BG Group – Summary ... 90
Shell – Summary 91
Total – Summary 91
Oilex – Summary 92
Eni – Summary... 92
Asia – Regional Appendix 94
Table: Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2009-2016. 94
Table: Oil Consumption Long-Term Forecasts (000b/d) . 94
Table: Oil Production (000b/d), 2009-2016 95
Table: Oil Production Long-Term Forecasts (000b/d). 96
Table: Refining Capacity (000b/d), 2009-2016 96
Table: Refining Capacity Long-Term Forecasts (000b/d) 97
Table: Gas Production (bcm), 2009-2016 98
Table: Gas Production Long-Term forecasts (bcm) . 98
Table: Gas Consumption (bcm), 2009-2016 . 99
Table: Gas Consumption Long-Term forecasts (bcm) 100
Table: LNG Exports (bcm), 2009-2016... 100
Table: LNG Exports (bcm), 2014-2021... 101
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts .. 102
Glossary Of Terms... 103
Table: Glossary of Terms 103
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology.. 105
Ratings Overview .. 105
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure. 106
Indicators .. 106
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology... 106
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology. 107
BMI Methodology. 109
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .. 109
Energy Industry. 109
Cross checks.. 110
Sources .. 110Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) . 10
Table: Oil Consumption Forecast, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) . 16
Table: India – Upstream Project Database . 23
Table: Oil & Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016. 24
Table: Oil & Gas – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021. 25
Table: Refineries In India. 35
Table: LNG Terminals In India. 39
Table: Upstream Risk / Reward Ratings . 47
Table: Downstream Risk / Reward Ratings . 47
Table: Key Players – India Oil And Gas Sector . 51
Table: Key Upstream Players. 58
Table: Key Downstream Players. 58
Table: Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2009-2016. 94
Table: Oil Consumption Long-Term Forecasts (000b/d) . 94
Table: Oil Production (000b/d), 2009-2016 . 95
Table: Oil Production Long-Term Forecasts (000b/d). 96
Table: Refining Capacity (000b/d), 2009-2016 . 96
Table: Refining Capacity Long-Term Forecasts (000b/d). 97
Table: Gas Production (bcm), 2009-2016 . 98
Table: Gas Production Long-Term forecasts (bcm) . 98
Table: Gas Consumption (bcm), 2009-2016 . 99
Table: Gas Consumption Long-Term forecasts (bcm). 100
Table: LNG Exports (bcm), 2009-2016. 100
Table: LNG Exports (bcm), 2014-2021. 101
Table: Glossary of Terms . 103
Table: BMI''s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure. 106
Table: BMI''s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology. 106
Table: BMI''s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology. 107

Survey Intelligence - Industry Dynamics, Growth, Threats & Opportunities in the Pharmaceutical Industry - 2012-2013

Synopsis
• Analysis of opinions drawn from leading pharmaceutical industry executives.
• Provides revenue growth expectations for the period 2012-2013.
• Provides growth prospects and changes in the competitive landscape in terms of mergers and acquisitions and business structure.
• Analysis of the demand in emerging markets and growth expectations in developed countries.
• Analysis of the changing business dynamics in the pharmaceutical industry.
• Analysis of the challenges faced by buyers and suppliers.

Summary
This report is the result of an extensive survey drawn from ICD Research’s exclusive panel of leading pharmaceutical industry executives. It analyzes how business strategies and practices in the pharmaceutical industry are set to change in 2012-13. This report gives you access to the category-level supplier selection criteria, business challenges and investment opportunities for leading purchase decision makers. The report also identifies future growth of buyers and suppliers, M&A and e-procurement. This report not only grants access to the opinions and strategies of business decision makers and competitors, but also examines their actions surrounding business priorities. The report also provides access to information categorized by region, company type and size.

Scope
• The opinions and forward looking statements of 247 industry executives have been captured in our in-depth survey, of which 51% represent Director and C-level respondents.
• The research is based on primary survey research conducted by ICD Research accessing its B2B panels comprised of senior purchase decision makers and leading supplier organizations.
• The geographical scope of the research is global - drawing on the activity and expectations of leading industry players across the Americas, Europe, Asia-Pacific, Africa and Middle East.
• This report covers data and analysis on industry developments.
• Key topics covered include threats and opportunities, economic outlook and business confidence.
• In the report, buyers identify what suppliers need to do to maintain their business and the key actions being taken by industry players to overcome the leading business threats.
• The report examines current practices and provides future expectations for the industry over the next 12-24 months.
• The report provides qualitative analysis of the key industry threats and opportunities.

Reasons To Buy
• This report will help you to drive revenues by understanding future product investment areas and growth regions.
• This report will help you to better promote your business by aligning your capabilities and business practices with your customer’s changing needs.
• This report will help you to secure stronger customer relationships by understanding the leading business concerns and changing strategies of industry buyers.
• This report will help you to predict how the industry will grow, consolidate and where it will stagnate.
• This report will help you to uncover the business outlook, key challenges and opportunities identified by suppliers and buyers.

Pharmaceutical Industry - 2012-2013

Published: June 2012             No. of Pages: 111              Price:  US $ 1175 
 
1 Introduction
1.1 What is This Report About?
1.2 Definitions
1.3 Methodology
1.4 Profile of Survey Respondents: Global Pharmaceutical Industry
1.4.1 Profile of buyer respondents: global pharmaceutical industry
1.4.2 Profile of supplier respondents: global pharmaceutical industry
2 Executive Summary
3 Global Pharmaceutical Industry Dynamics
3.1 Revenue Growth Expectations in the Global Pharmaceutical Industry
3.1.1 Global pharmaceutical industry: revenue growth expectations by company type
3.1.2 Global pharmaceutical industry: revenue growth expectations by region
3.1.3 Global pharmaceutical industry: revenue growth expectations by turnover
3.1.4 Global pharmaceutical industry: revenue growth expectations by senior level respondents
3.1.5 Global pharmaceutical industry: Revenue growth expectations-cross industry comparisons
3.2 Future Developments in Business Structure: Global Pharmaceutical Industry
3.2.1 Global pharmaceutical industry: future developments by buyers
3.2.2 Global pharmaceutical industry: future developments by suppliers
3.2.3 Global pharmaceutical industry: future developments by region
3.2.4 Global pharmaceutical industry: future developments by company turnover
3.3 M&A Activity Projections in the Global Pharmaceutical Industry
3.3.1 M&A activity projections in the global pharmaceutical industry by buyers
3.3.2 M&A activity projections in the global pharmaceutical industry by suppliers
3.3.3 M&A activity projections in the global pharmaceutical industry by region
3.3.4 M&A activity projections in the global pharmaceutical industry by company turnover
3.3.5 Global pharmaceutical industry: expansion abroad vs M&A activity projections
3.4 Capital Expenditure Forecast in the Global Pharmaceutical Industry
3.4.1 Capital expenditure forecast in the global pharmaceutical industry by buyers
3.4.2 Capital expenditure forecast in the global pharmaceutical industry by suppliers
3.4.3 Capital expenditure forecast in the global pharmaceutical industry by region
3.4.4 Capital expenditure forecast in the global pharmaceutical industry by company turnover
3.5 Planned Change in Staff Recruitment Activity: Global Pharmaceutical Industry
3.5.1 Global pharmaceutical industry: planned change in staff recruitment activity by buyers
3.5.2 Global pharmaceutical industry: planned change in staff recruitment activity by suppliers
3.5.3 Global pharmaceutical industry: planned change in staff recruitment activity by region
3.5.4 Global pharmaceutical industry: planned change in staff recruitment activity by company turnover
4 Global Pharmaceutical Industry Market Growth Outlook
4.1 Global Pharmaceutical Industry: Demand in Emerging Markets
4.1.1 Global pharmaceutical industry: demand in emerging markets by buyers
4.1.2 Global pharmaceutical industry: demand in emerging markets by suppliers
4.1.3 Global pharmaceutical industry: demand in emerging markets by region
4.1.4 Global pharmaceutical industry: demand in emerging markets by company turnover
4.2 Global Pharmaceutical Industry: Growth Expectations in Developed Countries
4.2.1 Global pharmaceutical industry: growth expectations in developed countries by buyers
4.2.2 Global pharmaceutical industry: growth expectations in developed countries by suppliers
4.2.3 Global pharmaceutical industry: growth expectations in developed countries by region
4.2.4 Global pharmaceutical industry: growth expectations in developed countries by company turnover
5 Threats and Opportunities for the Global Pharmaceutical Industry
5.1 Global Pharmaceutical Industry: Leading Business Concerns for 2012-2013
5.1.1 Global pharmaceutical industry: leading business concerns for 2012-2013 by company type
5.1.2 Global pharmaceutical industry: leading business concerns for 2012-2013 by region
5.1.3 Global pharmaceutical industry: leading business concerns for 2012-2013 by company turnover
5.2 Global Pharmaceutical Industry: Key Supplier Actions to Secure Buyer Business
5.2.1 Global pharmaceutical industry: key actions to secure buyer business (buyer respondents)
5.2.2 Global pharmaceutical industry: key actions to secure buyer business by region
5.2.3 Global pharmaceutical industry: key actions to secure buyer business by turnover
5.2.4 Global pharmaceutical industry: key actions to secure buyer business by procurement budget
5.2.5 Global pharmaceutical industry: key actions to secure buyer business by purchasing decision authority
6 Appendix
6.1 Global Pharmaceutical Industry Survey Results - Closed Questions
6.2 Methodology
6.3 Contact us
6.4 About ICD Research
6.5 Disclaimer

List of Tables


List of Figures