Philippines Autos Report Q3 2012

A major blow to autos manufacturing in the Philippines came from Ford Motor’s announcement it will
close its Santa Rose facility by end-2012. The closure is highly significantly for the domestic production
segment, given that Ford currently stands as the sole autos exporter in the industry. Industry estimates
show that Ford exported around 10,000 cars each year, out of a full capacity of 15,000 units. Ford Group
Philippines'' President Randy Krieger’s revelation that the company could not make a strong business
case for future production highlights the broader concerns of the industry participants about the final form
of the Motor Vehicle Development Programme (MVDP). Following Ford’s announcement in June 2012,
local parts suppliers urged the government to support vehicle assemblers domestically.

In view of the growing caution and pessimism, BMI has revised down its production growth forecast to
2016. After a close to 16.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in autos production to 60,200 units in 2012,
we forecast growth to average 1.6% y-o-y during the rest of the forecast period, to 64,400 units by 2016.
The obvious upside risk to this forecast is the entry of new players into the autos manufacturing segment.
While some carmakers have been reluctant to make investment decisions regarding the Philippines until
the new MVDP has been finalised, Chinese carmakers Great Wall Motors and Chery Automobile are
reportedly keen to set up assembly operations in the country.

Things look more promising for the demand side on the other hand. Encouraged by the robust 6.4% y-o-y
growth in the country’s real GDP during Q112, along with the introduction of new car models, improved
supply conditions and sustained consumer confidence, domestic autos association CAMPI expects recordbreaking sales in 2012. CAMPI President, Rommel Gutierrez, revealed that the growth is significant in
both the passenger car and commercial vehicle segments. BMI accordingly forecasts vehicle sales to
reach 218,700 units by the end of 2016, growing by an average of 9% per annum between 2012 and 2016.
With a view to cashing in on this growth, in April 2012, Japanese carmaker Mitsubishi Motors together
with authorised dealers Zamboanga Motors began construction of a showroom and service centre on a
5,320 sq m lot located in Governor Carmins Avenue, Zamboanga City. The dealership will have six
vehicle displays and 19 work bays. It is expected to be fully operational by December 2012. Meanwhile,
Filipino car dealer Autostrada Motore is looking to bring the Ferrari and Maserati brands to the
country. These announcements bolster BMI’s view that the competitive landscape in the country is still
far from saturated by carmakers and the market therefore provides ample opportunities for new entrants.

Philippines Autos Industry

Published: August 2012                  No. of Pages: 47                  Price:  US $ 1175

 

Table of Contents
Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Philippines Auto Industry SWOT 6
Philippines Political SWOT 7
Philippines Economic SWOT . 8
Philippines Business Environment SWOT 9
Global Overview 10
Global Autos Update: End Of First Quarter Brings Both Positive And Negative Revisions As Key Trends . 10
Table: Passenger Car Sales (Units), Jan-March 2012 . 10
Regional Overview . 14
Honda May Have Breakthrough In Reducing Rare Earth Reliance 14
Business Environment Ratings 16
Table: Business Environment Ratings – Autos Industry Asia Pacific 19
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario . 20
Table: Philippines - Economic Activity, 2011-2016 22
Industry Forecast Scenario 23
Table: Philippines Auto Industry – Sales, 2010-2016 23
Table: Philippines Auto Industry – Production , 2010-2016 24
Trade . 25
Table: Philippines Auto Industry – Exports And Imports, 2010-2016 . 26
Economic Contribution 27
Table: Philippines Auto Industry 27
Industry News 27
Passenger Cars – Forecasts & Analysis . 29
Table: Philippines Passenger Cars – Production , 2010-2016 . 29
Top Ten Carmakers in Philippines By Sales (Units) 30
Company News 30
Commercial Vehicles – Forecasts & Analysis 34
Table: Philippines Commercial Vehicles – Production , 2010-2016 . 34
Motorcycles – Forecasts & Analysis 35
Table: Philippines Motorcycle Segment , 2010-2016 . 35
Company Monitor 36
Asia Key To Delphi Post-Bankruptcy Growth But Not Without Competition 36
Company Profiles 39
Toyota Motor Philippines (TMP) 39
Honda Cars Philippines (HCP) 40
Demographic Outlook 41
Table: Philippines'' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) 42
Table: Philippines'' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 43
Table: Philippines'' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 44
Table: Philippines'' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 44
BMI Methodology . 45
Philippines Autos Report Q3 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 45
Sources 46Table: Passenger Car Sales (Units) JanMarch
Table: Business Environment Ratings – Autos Industry Asia Pacific
Table: Philippines Auto Industry – Sales
Table: Philippines Auto Industry – Production
Table: Philippines Auto Industry – Exports And Imports
Table: Philippines Auto Industry
Table: Philippines Passenger Cars – Production
Table: Philippines Commercial Vehicles – Production
Table: Philippines Motorcycle Segment
Table: Philippines'' Population By Age Group ('')
Table: Philippines'' Population By Age Group (% of total)
Table: Philippines'' Key Population Ratios
Table: Philippines'' Rural And Urban Population 

Philippines Autos Report Q2 2012

Calls for a supportive government policy towards vehicle and components production are gathering pace. In March 2012, the chief regional officer for Toyota Motor Asia Pacific, Takahiro Iwase, appealed to the government to implement supportive policies to develop a vehicle and components production hub. Philippines autos association CAMPI had earlier urged the government to push ahead with a clear policy to help the sector remain competitive among its ASEAN peers, particularly before all tariffs are withdrawn under the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement. However, the ongoing delays in finalising the Motor Vehicle
Development Programme (MVDP) risks putting off potential investors from investing in the country.

The International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (OICA) estimates that total vehicle production in Philippines decreased by more than 21% y-o-y, to 51,730 units, in 2011. BMI believes sharp declines in 2011 will make way for some recover in production in 2012, but we see little scope for any substantial increase in auto production in the country anytime during the forecast period unless more concrete plans come to the fore. As such, after a close to 16% y-o-y growth in autos production to 59,800 units in 2012, we limit our forecast to a rather subdued 4.6% y-o-y growth on average between 2013 and 2016.
Things look more promising for the demand segment on the other hand. Two months into 2012, there have been mixed results in the Philippines new vehicle market as importers mostly capitalised on the ongoing supply shortages hindering local producers. CAMPI announced that combined sales in the first two months of 2012 reached 18,977 units, down 15.7% year-on-year (y-o-y). For the industry as a whole this is a positive sign that demand exists in the market.

Indeed, private consumption growth, which makes up the mainstay, or around 80%, of the economy is on the whole likely to remain strong in the coming quarters, boosted by supportive domestic economic conditions and our expectation of continued growth in remittance inflows. BMI accordingly forecasts vehicle sales to reach 255,400 units by the end of 2016, growing by an average of 9% per annum between 2012 and 2016.

With the view to cash in on this growth, Filipino car dealer Autostrada Motore is looking to bring the Ferrari and Maserati brands to the country. Meanwhile, General Motors Company's (GM) Chevrolet brand is banking on the government's most recent infrastructure programme to help drive autos growth and enable Chevrolet to offer the 'right products to the market'. These announcements testify BMI’s view that the competitive landscape in the country is still far from saturated by carmakers and the market therefore provides ample opportunities for new entrants.

New Report on Philippines Autos  Industry Q2 2012

Published: June 2012    No. of Pages: 43      Price: US $ 1175       
 


Table of Contents
Executive Summary . 4
SWOT Analysis 5
Philippines Auto Industry SWOT ... 5
Philippines Political SWOT ... 6
Philippines Economic SWOT . 7
Philippines Business Environment SWOT .. 8
Global Overview ... 9
Eurozone And EMs Pose Risks To 2012 Growth Outlook; US And Japan On The Rise . 9
Passenger Car Sales (Units), Jan-December 2011 9
Replacement Growth? ... 9
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings .. 13
Table: Business Environment Ratings – Autos Industry Asia Pacific ... 16
Regional Overview . 17
Indian And Chinese Slowdowns Prompt Companies To Target ASEAN Growth... 17
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario . 20
Table: Philippines - Economic Activity 23
Industry Forecast Scenario .. 24
Table: Philippines Auto Industry – Production & Sales... 24
Trade . 26
Table: Philippines Auto Industry – Exports And Imports . 26
Table: Philippines Auto Industry – Economic Contribution. 27
Industry News ... 27
Passenger Cars .. 30
Table: Philippines Passenger Cars – Production 30
Top Ten Carmakers in Philippines By Sales (Units) 31
Company News . 31
Commercial Vehicles . 34
Table: Philippines Commercial Vehicles – Production 34
Motorcycles 35
Table: Philippines Motorcycle Segment ... 35
Company Monitor .. 36
Company Profiles .. 39
Toyota Motor Philippines (TMP) . 39
Honda Cars Philippines (HCP) ... 40
BMI Methodology ... 41
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .. 41
Sources 42Table: Business Environment Ratings – Autos Industry Asia Pacific . 16
Table: Philippines - Economic Activity . 23
Table: Philippines Auto Industry – Production & Sales. 24
Table: Philippines Auto Industry – Exports And Imports . 26
Table: Philippines Auto Industry – Economic Contribution. 27
Table: Philippines Passenger Cars – Production . 30
Table: Philippines Commercial Vehicles – Production . 34
Table: Philippines Motorcycle Segment . 35