MarketReportsOnline.com - Thailand Power Report Q3 2012

We expect natural gas production to lead electricity generation in Thailand and be the main factor in turning the country from a net importer of energy to a net exporter by 2021. Our view would also depend on the success of the country’s alternative energy plans although further clarity and legislative action is needed with regards to this.

Events in Japan have made the Thai authorities hesitate over the country’s long-term nuclear reactor plans, but it is hard to see how the country can avoid this form of power diversification unless it builds still greater dependency on imported gas, coal or hydro. Fresh efforts can be expected by Thai utilities to build capacity in neighbouring countries such as Myanmar and Laos, providing a new source of electricity supply.

Key trends and recent developments in the Thai electricity market include: During the period 2012-2021, Thailand’s overall power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 5%, reaching 239TWh. Driving this growth are annual 5.3% and 2.9% respective gains in gasfired and hydro generation, augmenting an 9.3% average rise in the use of non-hydro renewables.

Energy officials in Bangkok have drawn up no fewer than nine 15-year plans to add between 27GW and 37GW to installed generating capacity by 2021. All of the plans call for the use of coal and nuclear energy, with coal set to generate up to 21GW, while nuclear power would account for about 4GW.

Thailand can meet its future energy needs without any additional hydropower imports or further investment in coal or nuclear energy, a new study shows. International Rivers commissioned the study, which states that Thailand does not need to purchase electricity from the controversial Xayaburi dam on the Mekong River in Laos to meet its domestic energy demands. The authors analysed the government’s current Power Development Plan (PDP 2010) and found that it overestimated power demand over the next 20 years by 13.2GW.

Following an increase in 2011 real GDP of 0.05%, we expect stronger growth. This is based on two factors: our belief that 2011’s devastating floods were a rare event, and the base effects from 2011. The population is expected to rise slightly from 68.5mn to 71.6mn during the period 2012-2021, and net power consumption looks set to increase from 145.8TWh in 2012 to 222.8TWh in 2021.

Thailand’s power supply shortfall of around 1.1TWh is set to peak by 2015 at 4.01TWh and will decline slowly to reach a surplus of 1.96 by 2021. Underpinning this view is our positive view on natural gas usage in the world

Thailand Power Industry 2012

Published: July 2012               No. of Pages: 61              Price: US $ 1175



Table of Contents

BMI Industry View . 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Thailand Power SWOT . 6
Global Industry Overview . 7
Regional Industry Overview 14
Industry Forecast Scenario 19
Thailand Snapshot (Macro) 19
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data 19
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector . 19
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 19
Table: Thailand Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016. 19
Table: Thailand Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2013-2021. 22
Table: Thailand Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 24
Table: Thailand Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2013-2021 25
Electricity Consumption 32
Table: Thailand Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016. 32
Table: Thailand Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2013-2021. 32
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports 34
Table: Thailand Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 34
Table: Thailand Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts,2013-2021 34
Table: Thailand Trade Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 34
Table: Thailand Trade Data And Forecasts, 2013-2021 34
Key Policies/Market Structure 36
Regulation and Competition . 36
Key Projects Database 38
Table: Major Projects - Energy And Utilities 38
Power Risk/Reward Ratings 42
Asia Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings 42
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 47
Power Risk/Reward Ratings 48
Thailand Power Rating . 48
Rewards 48
Risks 48
Competitive Landscape and Company Profiles 49
Electricity Generating Authority Of Thailand (EGAT) 50
Independent Power (Thailand). 51
Glow Energy 51
CLP/EGCO . 51
Ratchaburi Electricity Generating Holding Public Company Limited (RATCH) 52
Glossary of Terms . 54
Table: Glossary of Terms . 54
Methodology and Sources . 55
Industry Forecasts 55
Power Industry - Data Methodology 56
Generation and Consumption Data . 56
Electricity Generation Capacity Data 57
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 57
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators . 59
Sources 60Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data . 19
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector . 19
Table: Thailand Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016. 19
Table: Thailand Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2013-2021. 22
Table: Thailand Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 24
Table: Thailand Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 25
Table: Thailand Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016. 32
Table: Thailand Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2013-2021. 32
Table: Thailand Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 34
Table: Thailand Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts,2013-2021 . 34
Table: Thailand Trade Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 34
Table: Thailand Trade Data And Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 34
Table: Major Projects - Energy And Utilities . 38
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) . 47
Table: Glossary of Terms . 54
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators . 59

Russia Power Report Q2 2012

Russia’s power sector faces a host of challenges. There is no disputing the size of the market and the potential for domestic and foreign companies alike to invest. However, infrastructure is old and inefficient, meaning a mountain of capital is required to develop the sector. Furthermore, the liberalisation process has faltered. State gas monopoly Gazprom has strengthened its grip on the power industry and this is not seen as a positive move by many outside Russia, while price controls could persist in the retail segment.

It will be some time before renewables make a meaningful contribution to capacity, leaving Russia dependent on a potent mix of fossil fuels, nuclear and conventional large-scale hydro-power. The nuclear disaster in Japan is unlikely to influence Russian energy policy, while an abundance of gas and coal resources point to these two sources maintaining a strong role in the overall electricity generation mix. In fact, efforts by the state to maximise the export potential of its natural resources suggest there will be an increased focus on nuclear energy and hydro generation over the next decade. Large-scale foreign involvement in such projects seems unlikely and higher power prices may be needed to justify the necessary investment.

Key trends and recent developments in the Russian electricity market include:
During the period 2012-2021, Russian power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 2.05%, reaching 1,198 terawatt hours (TWh). Driving this growth is an annual 3.0% gain in nuclear and a 3.44% rise in renewables generation, offsetting a 0.88% average decline in oil-fired electricity supply. Coal- and gas-fired power are each expected to increase by 1.18% and 2.54% per annum.

Following an assumed 3.3% increase in real GDP in 2011, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 3.95% between 2012 and 2021. The population is expected to fall slightly from the current level of 142.8mn to 140.7mn during the period, but net power consumption looks set to increase from 858TWh to 1,051TWh in 2021. During the period 2012-2021, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 2.05%.

 Thanks partly to the forecast rise in net generation, growth of which matches the underlying demand trend, Russia’s power supply surplus is expected to edge higher over the medium term. A broadly stable percentage of transmission and distribution (T&D) losses of around 11.5% will slow the rate of build-up in export capability. The theoretical net export potential is expected to peak at around 12.6TWh in 2020, before slipping back below 10.0TWh in 2021.

Power Report of Russia Q2 2012

Published: June 2012             No. of Pages: 58               Price: US $ 1175  
                    
   
         
Table of Contents

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis . 6
Russia Power SWOT .. 6
Global Industry Overview 7
Regional Industry Overview .. 11
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 15
Russia Snapshot (Macro) .. 15
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data . 15
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector .. 15
Russia Forecast Scenario.. 16
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity ... 16
Table: Russia Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 .. 16
Table: Russia Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 18
Table: Russia Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 20
Table: Russia Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 .. 22
Electricity Consumption 28
Table: Russia Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 ... 28
Table: Russia Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 28
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports . 30
Table: Russia Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 .. 30
Table: Russia Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 ... 30
Table: Russia Trade Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 30
Table: Russia Long-Term Trade Forecasts, 2013-2021 ... 30
Key Policies/Market Structure .. 32
Regulation And Competition 32
Pricing . 33
Key Projects Database . 34
Table: Russia Major Projects – Power Plants & Transmission Grids . 34
Business Environment .. 38
CEE Power Regional Risk/Reward Ratings . 38
Table: CEE Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 40
Russia Power Risk/Reward Ratings . 41
Rewards ... 41
Risks 42
Competitive Landscape . 43
FGC . 44
Inter RAO UES 44
Gazprom/Mosenergo ... 45
E.ON 46
Enel .. 46
Company Profiles ... 47
Inter RAO UES 47
Glossary of Terms .. 50
Table: Glossary of Terms . 50
Methodology and Sources 51
Industry Forecasts ... 51
Power Industry – Data Methodology ... 52
Generation and Consumption Data . 52
Electricity Generation Capacity Data .. 53
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology ... 54
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators . 56
Sources 57Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data . 15
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector . 15
Table: Russia Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 16
Table: Russia Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 18
Table: Russia Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 20
Table: Russia Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 22
Table: Russia Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 28
Table: Russia Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 28
Table: Russia Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 30
Table: Russia Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 30
Table: Russia Trade Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 30
Table: Russia Long-Term Trade Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 30
Table: Russia Major Projects – Power Plants & Transmission Grids . 34
Table: CEE Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) . 40
Table: Glossary of Terms . 50
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators . 56