New Zealand’s pharmaceutical regulatory regime continues to be of major
concern for multinationals. For example, according to the Pharmaceutical
Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA)’s Special 301 Submission
for 2012 requested that New Zealand be placed on the Priority Watch
List, citing issues such as transparency, fairness and predictability of
the state pricing and reimbursement regime, and the overall climate for
innovative medicines in the country. Such issues, coupled with small
population, will continue to sideline New Zealand in terms of both
innovative drug launches and pharmaceutical industry investment into
research and development (R&D). Headline Expenditure Forecasts
Pharmaceuticals: NZD1.35bn (US$1.07bn) in 2011 to NZD1.37bn (US$1.01bn) in 2012; +1.6% in local currency and -5.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast lower than in Q212 due to macroeconomic factors.
Healthcare: NZD19.37bn (US$15.31bn) in 2011 to NZD20.08bn (US$14.83bn) in 2012; +3.7% in local currency and -3.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast lower than in Q212 due to macroeconomic factors.
Medical Devices: NZD814mn (US$644mn) in 2011 to NZD833mn (US$615mn) in 2012; +2.3% in local currency and -4.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast lower than in Q212 due to macroeconomic factors.
Risk/Reward Rating: New Zealand’s score increased from 53.9 in the Q212 to 54.4 in BMI’s Q312 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs). The change means that New Zealand now ranks ninth – up from tenth previously – within the Asia Pacific matrix that ranks 18 key markets. New Zealand’s small population and the focus on pharmaceutical cost containment will continue to hamper commercial opportunities for pharmaceutical manufacturers, despite a predictable business environment.
Key Trends & Developments In March 2012, the country’s Pharmaceutical Management Agency (PHARMAC) in New Zealand, which is in charge of reimbursement decisions, reached an agreement with GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) to provide funds for two new orally administered cancer treatments, namely Tykerb (lapatinib) and Votrient (pazopanib). The treatments will be funded as substitutes for the treatments that are already funded by PHARMAC, namely Herceptin (trastuzumab) and Sutent (sunitinib).
The growing gap in healthcare access between rich and poor people in New Zealand has been examined in The Lancet medical journal. The article, published in March 2012, urged the government to take appropriate measures to control the growing rate of infectious diseases in the country. In the meantime, Prime Minister John Key said the health gap is a broad social issue that must be addressed urgently.
BMI Economic View: We continue to expect lacklustre growth from New Zealand in 2012, as weakness in private sector consumption and investment continue due to the ongoing contraction in consumer credit and the thinning of profit margins. Fragile growth in the domestic economy is likely to confound the government's efforts to reduce its expenditures, while its determination to control public debt will likely limit any stimulus measures. Coupled with sluggish demand from key export markets, we forecast growth of just 1.7% for 2012 and 2.3% for 2013 versus the consensus' forecasts of 2.1% and 3.4%, respectively.
BMI Political View: The government has embarked on various measures to cut down on its expenditures as it aims to return to budget surplus in FY2014/15. However, the belt-tightening comes at a bad time, given that we expect welfare payouts to increase as the economy weakens, and the government is likely to face increasing pressure to provide some form of fiscal stimulus. Furthermore, with tax revenues likely to come in lower than its forecast as earnings from both businesses and employees decline, the government will be left with even less room to manoeuvre. Considering the increasing constraints on its budget, we expect government expenditure to still grow, albeit at a weaker rate of 1.0% in 2012, down from an estimated growth rate of 2.9% in 2011.
Pharmaceuticals: NZD1.35bn (US$1.07bn) in 2011 to NZD1.37bn (US$1.01bn) in 2012; +1.6% in local currency and -5.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast lower than in Q212 due to macroeconomic factors.
Healthcare: NZD19.37bn (US$15.31bn) in 2011 to NZD20.08bn (US$14.83bn) in 2012; +3.7% in local currency and -3.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast lower than in Q212 due to macroeconomic factors.
Medical Devices: NZD814mn (US$644mn) in 2011 to NZD833mn (US$615mn) in 2012; +2.3% in local currency and -4.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast lower than in Q212 due to macroeconomic factors.
Risk/Reward Rating: New Zealand’s score increased from 53.9 in the Q212 to 54.4 in BMI’s Q312 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs). The change means that New Zealand now ranks ninth – up from tenth previously – within the Asia Pacific matrix that ranks 18 key markets. New Zealand’s small population and the focus on pharmaceutical cost containment will continue to hamper commercial opportunities for pharmaceutical manufacturers, despite a predictable business environment.
Key Trends & Developments In March 2012, the country’s Pharmaceutical Management Agency (PHARMAC) in New Zealand, which is in charge of reimbursement decisions, reached an agreement with GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) to provide funds for two new orally administered cancer treatments, namely Tykerb (lapatinib) and Votrient (pazopanib). The treatments will be funded as substitutes for the treatments that are already funded by PHARMAC, namely Herceptin (trastuzumab) and Sutent (sunitinib).
The growing gap in healthcare access between rich and poor people in New Zealand has been examined in The Lancet medical journal. The article, published in March 2012, urged the government to take appropriate measures to control the growing rate of infectious diseases in the country. In the meantime, Prime Minister John Key said the health gap is a broad social issue that must be addressed urgently.
BMI Economic View: We continue to expect lacklustre growth from New Zealand in 2012, as weakness in private sector consumption and investment continue due to the ongoing contraction in consumer credit and the thinning of profit margins. Fragile growth in the domestic economy is likely to confound the government's efforts to reduce its expenditures, while its determination to control public debt will likely limit any stimulus measures. Coupled with sluggish demand from key export markets, we forecast growth of just 1.7% for 2012 and 2.3% for 2013 versus the consensus' forecasts of 2.1% and 3.4%, respectively.
BMI Political View: The government has embarked on various measures to cut down on its expenditures as it aims to return to budget surplus in FY2014/15. However, the belt-tightening comes at a bad time, given that we expect welfare payouts to increase as the economy weakens, and the government is likely to face increasing pressure to provide some form of fiscal stimulus. Furthermore, with tax revenues likely to come in lower than its forecast as earnings from both businesses and employees decline, the government will be left with even less room to manoeuvre. Considering the increasing constraints on its budget, we expect government expenditure to still grow, albeit at a weaker rate of 1.0% in 2012, down from an estimated growth rate of 2.9% in 2011.
Published: May 2012 No. of Pages: 67 Price: US $ 1175
Table of Contents
Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis . 7
New Zealand Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Industry SWOT . 7
New Zealand Political SWOT 8
New Zealand Economic SWOT .. 9
New Zealand Business Environment SWOT . 10
Risk/Reward Ratings .. 11
Pharmaceuticals Risk/Reward Ratings 11
Table: Asia Pacific – Regional Risk/Reward Ratings Q212 . 11
Rewards ... 12
Risks 12
New Zealand – Market Summary .. 14
Regulatory Regime . 15
Intellectual Property Protection .. 15
Pricing And Reimbursement 16
Reimbursement Funding .. 18
Table: Leading Therapeutic Groups By PHARMAC Expenditure (NZDmn) ... 19
Table: Top 20 Medicines By Ex-Manufacturer Cost To PHARMAC In The Year Ending June 2010 (NZDmn)... 20
Table: Top 20 Medicines Reimbursed By PHARMAC According To Prescription Numbers In The Year Ending June 2010 .. 21
Recent Regulatory Developments 21
Industry Developments.. 23
Epidemiology ... 23
Healthcare Sector 24
Research and Development (R&D) .. 25
Clinical Trials Sector ... 25
Medical Devices... 27
Medical Devices Classes In New Zealand 27
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 29
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast 29
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators 2008-2016 30
Healthcare Market Forecast 31
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2008-2016 32
Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators 2008-2016 32
Table: Healthcare Private Indicators 2008-2016 33
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic Forecast 34
NEW ZEALAND – ECONOMIC ACTIVITY . 39
Prescription Drug Market Forecast . 40
Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016 40
Patented Drug Market Forecast .. 41
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators 2008-2016 ... 42
Generic Drug Market Forecast 43
Table: Generic Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016 ... 43
OTC Drug Market Forecast . 44
Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2008-2016 .. 44
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast 45
Table: Exports and Imports Indicators 2008-2016 .. 46
Medical Device Market Forecast . 47
Table: Medical Devices Sales Indicators 2008-2016 ... 48
Other Healthcare Data 48
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario . 49
Competitive Landscape . 50
Pharmaceutical Industry .. 50
Company Developments... 50
Pharmaceutical Distribution 52
Company Profiles ... 53
Douglas Pharmaceuticals 53
New Zealand Pharmaceuticals 55
Demographic Outlook 57
NEW ZEALAND – Population By Age Group .. 58
NEW ZEALAND – Population By Age Group .. 58
NEW ZEALAND – Key Population Ratios ... 59
NEW ZEALAND – Rural and Urban Population . 60
Glossary .. 61
BMI Methodology ... 63
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts 63
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology .. 64
Ratings Overview . 64
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators ... 65
Weighting . 66
Table: Weighting Of Components 66Table: Asia Pacific – Regional Risk/Reward Ratings Q212 . 11
Table: Leading Therapeutic Groups By PHARMAC Expenditure (NZDmn) . 19
Table: Top 20 Medicines By Ex-Manufacturer Cost To PHARMAC In The Year Ending June 2010 (NZDmn). 20
Table: Top 20 Medicines Reimbursed By PHARMAC According To Prescription Numbers In The Year Ending June 2010 . 21
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators 2008-2016 . 30
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2008-2016 . 32
Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators 2008-2016 . 32
Table: Healthcare Private Indicators 2008-2016 . 33
Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016 . 40
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators 2008-2016 . 42
Table: Generic Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016 . 43
Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2008-2016 . 44
Table: Exports and Imports Indicators 2008-2016 . 46
Table: Medical Devices Sales Indicators 2008-2016 . 48
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators . 65
Table: Weighting Of Components . 66
SWOT Analysis . 7
New Zealand Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Industry SWOT . 7
New Zealand Political SWOT 8
New Zealand Economic SWOT .. 9
New Zealand Business Environment SWOT . 10
Risk/Reward Ratings .. 11
Pharmaceuticals Risk/Reward Ratings 11
Table: Asia Pacific – Regional Risk/Reward Ratings Q212 . 11
Rewards ... 12
Risks 12
New Zealand – Market Summary .. 14
Regulatory Regime . 15
Intellectual Property Protection .. 15
Pricing And Reimbursement 16
Reimbursement Funding .. 18
Table: Leading Therapeutic Groups By PHARMAC Expenditure (NZDmn) ... 19
Table: Top 20 Medicines By Ex-Manufacturer Cost To PHARMAC In The Year Ending June 2010 (NZDmn)... 20
Table: Top 20 Medicines Reimbursed By PHARMAC According To Prescription Numbers In The Year Ending June 2010 .. 21
Recent Regulatory Developments 21
Industry Developments.. 23
Epidemiology ... 23
Healthcare Sector 24
Research and Development (R&D) .. 25
Clinical Trials Sector ... 25
Medical Devices... 27
Medical Devices Classes In New Zealand 27
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 29
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast 29
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators 2008-2016 30
Healthcare Market Forecast 31
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2008-2016 32
Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators 2008-2016 32
Table: Healthcare Private Indicators 2008-2016 33
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic Forecast 34
NEW ZEALAND – ECONOMIC ACTIVITY . 39
Prescription Drug Market Forecast . 40
Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016 40
Patented Drug Market Forecast .. 41
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators 2008-2016 ... 42
Generic Drug Market Forecast 43
Table: Generic Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016 ... 43
OTC Drug Market Forecast . 44
Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2008-2016 .. 44
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast 45
Table: Exports and Imports Indicators 2008-2016 .. 46
Medical Device Market Forecast . 47
Table: Medical Devices Sales Indicators 2008-2016 ... 48
Other Healthcare Data 48
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario . 49
Competitive Landscape . 50
Pharmaceutical Industry .. 50
Company Developments... 50
Pharmaceutical Distribution 52
Company Profiles ... 53
Douglas Pharmaceuticals 53
New Zealand Pharmaceuticals 55
Demographic Outlook 57
NEW ZEALAND – Population By Age Group .. 58
NEW ZEALAND – Population By Age Group .. 58
NEW ZEALAND – Key Population Ratios ... 59
NEW ZEALAND – Rural and Urban Population . 60
Glossary .. 61
BMI Methodology ... 63
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts 63
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology .. 64
Ratings Overview . 64
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators ... 65
Weighting . 66
Table: Weighting Of Components 66Table: Asia Pacific – Regional Risk/Reward Ratings Q212 . 11
Table: Leading Therapeutic Groups By PHARMAC Expenditure (NZDmn) . 19
Table: Top 20 Medicines By Ex-Manufacturer Cost To PHARMAC In The Year Ending June 2010 (NZDmn). 20
Table: Top 20 Medicines Reimbursed By PHARMAC According To Prescription Numbers In The Year Ending June 2010 . 21
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators 2008-2016 . 30
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2008-2016 . 32
Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators 2008-2016 . 32
Table: Healthcare Private Indicators 2008-2016 . 33
Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016 . 40
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators 2008-2016 . 42
Table: Generic Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016 . 43
Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2008-2016 . 44
Table: Exports and Imports Indicators 2008-2016 . 46
Table: Medical Devices Sales Indicators 2008-2016 . 48
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators . 65
Table: Weighting Of Components . 66
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