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Thursday, 23 August 2012

Freight Transport Q3 2012 for Multiple Countries on MarketReportsOnline.com


MarketReportsOnline.com adds Q3 2012 reports for Freight Transport of multiple countries to its store.

Following are the report briefs:

Thailand Freight Transport Report Q3 2012
Although BMI thinks Thailand’s post-2011 floods economic recovery is losing steam, we are
still moderately optimistic about the outlook for the country’s ports and shipping sector. We see GDP
growth of 4.0% this year, followed by 4.4% in 2013, which will provide a degree of support for the
industry. Admittedly, foreign trade growth will fall by half in 2012 compared to the preceding year (down from 11.6% to 5.3% in real terms). But on the plus side we see foreign trade growing at just above that 5% per annum mark for the next few years.

Indonesia Freight Transport Report Q3 2012
Growth Slows But Freight Sector Still Positive We have trimmed back our growth forecast for the Indonesian economy this year, as global and Asian regional growth rates come down, reducing demand for the country''s exports. We still believe that the country has solid domestic fundamentals which, to some extent, protect it from the gloomier outside climate. These include strong consumer spending and growing investment in infrastructure. Rising living standards and a growing middle class help support the freight transport industry. BMI now forecasts 2012 GDP growth of 5.4% (down from our earlier 5.8% forecast). Our outlook for 2013 is for growth to accelerate again to 6.3%. In the five years to 2016 we expect growth to average 6.2% per annum, confirming the country as a regional outperformer. As far as freight and mode specific factors are concerned, there is something of a mixed picture. Cargo volumes will continue to expand across all modes. But we have trimmed back our airfreight projections because of the slower GDP growth rate. As far as Indonesia''s ports are concerned, we have actually raised gross tonnage numbers a little at Tanjung Priok, while cutting back container traffic, a reflection of slightly lower import demand. Rail freight growth figures for the first quarter were very strong, on the other hand, leading us to raise the full-year forecast.

Chile Freight Transport Report Q3 2012
BMI maintains its broadly positive outlook of the Chilean freight transport sector for Q312. Headline Industry Data  Air freight tonnage is forecast to rise by 10.8% in 2012 to reach 340,900 tonnes. Total tonnes at the Port of Valparaíso forecast to rise 13.5%, to 11.96mn tonnes in 2012, with average growth of 11.9% over the next five years.Rail freight tonnage is forecast to rise 3% in 2012, reaching 28.2mn tonnes, with average growth of 2.7% over the next five years.
Key Industry Trends LAN-TAM Merger Ready For Take Off BMI believes the long-awaited merger of two of Latin America''s biggest airlines - Chile''s LAN and Brazil''s TAM - is set to be completed in the coming weeks, with both companies putting in place the necessary final measures. We believe the newly created Latam Airlines will be well placed to take advantage of growing air freight volumes in the region. The merger, expected to be ready mid-May, will create the largest carrier in the region and one of the world''s 10 biggest in terms of revenue.

Mexico Freight Transport Report Q3 2012
BMI remains cautiously optimistic on the Mexican freight transport sector, although we highlight that there are clouds on the horizon in the form of sluggish US demand and slow domestic consumer demand. We are forecasting real GDP growth of 3.4% for Mexico in 2012 in response to slowing global growth which we believe will reverse nascent private consumption and investment growth. Previously, we had revised up our forecast for the country''s 2012 real GDP growth from below consensus, at 3.1%, to above consensus, at 3.4%, on the back of our expectation for strong domestic demand and rising investment inflows. This view has been playing out well, with commercial and manufacturing sector data consistently surprising to the upside throughout the first three months of 2012. As such, despite being slightly over-optimistic in 2011, having estimated real GDP growth of 4.2% as opposed to the actual 3.9%, we are happy to stick with our above-consensus forecast for 2012.

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