MarketReportsOnline.com adds
Q3 2012 reports for Freight Transport of multiple countries to its store.
Following are the report briefs:
Thailand Freight Transport Report Q3 2012
Although BMI thinks Thailand’s post-2011 floods economic
recovery is losing steam, we are
still moderately optimistic about the outlook for the country’s ports and shipping sector. We see GDP
growth of 4.0% this year, followed by 4.4% in 2013, which will provide a degree of support for the
industry. Admittedly, foreign trade growth will fall by half in 2012 compared to the preceding year (down from 11.6% to 5.3% in real terms). But on the plus side we see foreign trade growing at just above that 5% per annum mark for the next few years.
still moderately optimistic about the outlook for the country’s ports and shipping sector. We see GDP
growth of 4.0% this year, followed by 4.4% in 2013, which will provide a degree of support for the
industry. Admittedly, foreign trade growth will fall by half in 2012 compared to the preceding year (down from 11.6% to 5.3% in real terms). But on the plus side we see foreign trade growing at just above that 5% per annum mark for the next few years.
Indonesia Freight Transport Report Q3 2012
Growth Slows But Freight Sector Still Positive We have
trimmed back our growth forecast for the Indonesian economy this year, as
global and Asian regional growth rates come down, reducing demand for the
country''s exports. We still believe that the country has solid domestic
fundamentals which, to some extent, protect it from the gloomier outside
climate. These include strong consumer spending and growing investment in
infrastructure. Rising living standards and a growing middle class help support
the freight transport industry. BMI now forecasts 2012 GDP growth of 5.4% (down
from our earlier 5.8% forecast). Our outlook for 2013 is for growth to
accelerate again to 6.3%. In the five years to 2016 we expect growth to average
6.2% per annum, confirming the country as a regional outperformer. As far as
freight and mode specific factors are concerned, there is something of a mixed
picture. Cargo volumes will continue to expand across all modes. But we have
trimmed back our airfreight projections because of the slower GDP growth rate.
As far as Indonesia''s ports are concerned, we have actually raised gross
tonnage numbers a little at Tanjung Priok, while cutting back container
traffic, a reflection of slightly lower import demand. Rail freight growth
figures for the first quarter were very strong, on the other hand, leading us
to raise the full-year forecast.
Chile Freight Transport Report Q3 2012
BMI maintains its broadly positive outlook of the Chilean
freight transport sector for Q312. Headline Industry Data Air freight tonnage is
forecast to rise by 10.8% in 2012 to reach 340,900 tonnes. Total tonnes at the
Port of Valparaíso forecast to rise 13.5%, to 11.96mn tonnes in 2012, with
average growth of 11.9% over the next five years.Rail freight tonnage is
forecast to rise 3% in 2012, reaching 28.2mn tonnes, with average growth of
2.7% over the next five years.
Key Industry Trends LAN-TAM Merger Ready For Take Off BMI
believes the long-awaited merger of two of Latin America''s biggest airlines -
Chile''s LAN and Brazil''s TAM - is set to be completed in the coming weeks,
with both companies putting in place the necessary final measures. We believe
the newly created Latam Airlines will be well placed to take advantage of
growing air freight volumes in the region. The merger, expected to be ready
mid-May, will create the largest carrier in the region and one of the world''s
10 biggest in terms of revenue.
Mexico Freight Transport Report Q3 2012
BMI remains cautiously optimistic on the Mexican freight
transport sector, although we highlight that there are clouds on the horizon in
the form of sluggish US demand and slow domestic consumer demand. We are
forecasting real GDP growth of 3.4% for Mexico in 2012 in response to slowing
global growth which we believe will reverse nascent private consumption and
investment growth. Previously, we had revised up our forecast for the
country''s 2012 real GDP growth from below consensus, at 3.1%, to above
consensus, at 3.4%, on the back of our expectation for strong domestic demand
and rising investment inflows. This view has been playing out well, with
commercial and manufacturing sector data consistently surprising to the upside
throughout the first three months of 2012. As such, despite being slightly
over-optimistic in 2011, having estimated real GDP growth of 4.2% as opposed to
the actual 3.9%, we are happy to stick with our above-consensus forecast for
2012.
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