Kuwait Oil and Gas Report Q3 2012

Kuwait’s rise in output will be relatively slow and steady, and we see the country producing 3.5mn barrels per day (b/d) by 2021. However, a substantial rise in oil consumption will reduce the oil that is available for the export market. We see a faster increase in gas production in the second half of our 10-year forecast period, with output crossing 16bcm by 2020. Kuwait will continue to remain a net gas importer and refined products exporter.

We highlight these trends and developments in Kuwait’s oil & gas sector:

• BMI sees Kuwaiti oil production rising from an estimated 2.5mn b/d in 2011 to 3mn b/d by 2017, then to 3.5mn b/d by 2021. 
• The advance of Project Kuwait, an ambitious scheme to enable international oil company (IOC) upstream investment, is critical to boosting oil production, given the mature nature of the giant Burgan field. However, bureaucratic gridlock has persistently disrupted the implementation of the plan, hampering investment and therefore weighing on production capacity. 
• Regulatory approval of the long-delayed al-Zour refinery and the Clean Fuels Project will allow Kuwait to significantly boost both production and exports of refined products, including lowsulphur diesel and Euro-4 gasoline. 
• Significant non-associated gas in the Jurassic fields in Kuwait’s north must be monetised in order to lessen dependence on gas imports, which we see continuing through to 2021. LNG imports could be supplemented by the re-activation of pipeline imports from Iraq (which have been suspended since 1990). We expect Kuwaiti gas production to rise from an estimated 12.3bcm in 2011 to over 16bcm by 2021, with imports rising to around 6.4bcm by the end of our 10-year forecast period. 
• Kuwait’s dependence on oil leads to high volatility in the country’s export revenues. Our forecasts of slower growth in China, a faltering recovery in the US and a worsening eurozone debt crisis clearly pose a threat to global oil demand. At the time of writing, our forecasts see OPEC basket oil prices falling from US$111.47 per barrel (bbl) in 2012 to US$107.00/bbl in 2013, which will have a detrimental impact on the country’s macroeconomic outlook

Kuwait Oil and Gas Industry

Published: August 2012                     No. of Pages: 66                           Price: US $ 1175

 

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis . 6
Kuwait Oil & Gas SWOT .. 6
Global Energy Market Outlook 7
Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 (’000 b/d) 7
Table: Oil Consumption Forecast, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) 13
Regional Energy Market Outlook .. 14
Kuwait Energy Market Overview ... 18
Table: Kuwait – Upstream Project Database .. 19
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 20
Table: Kuwait Oil & Gas – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 20
Table: Kuwait Oil & Gas – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 21
Oil And Gas Reserves ... 22
Oil Supply And Demand 22
Gas Supply And Demand .. 23
LNG .. 24
Refining And Oil Products Trade .. 24
Revenues/Import Costs.. 25
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario . 25
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 26
Oil Refineries 26
Table: Refineries In Kuwait . 26
Service Stations . 28
Oil Storage Facilities 28
Oil Terminals/Ports .. 28
Oil Pipelines . 29
LNG Terminals . 29
Gas Pipelines 29
Gas Booster Stations . 29
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings ... 31
Table: BMI O&G Risk/Reward Ratings ... 31
Table: BMI Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings 32
Table: BMI Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings 33
Kuwait Upstream Rating – Overview ... 33
Kuwait Upstream Rating – Rewards 33
Kuwait Upstream Rating – Risks . 34
Kuwait Downstream Rating – Overview .. 34
Competitive Landscape . 35
Executive Summary .. 35
Table: Key Players – Kuwaiti Oil & Gas Sector .. 35
Overview/State Role .. 36
Licensing And Regulation 36
Government Policy .. 36
International Energy Relations 38
Table: Key Upstream Player 39
Table: Key Downstream Players . 40
Company Monitor ... 41
Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) . 41
Kuwait National Petroleum Company (KNPC) . 45
Chevron ... 47
Royal Dutch Shell – Summary . 49
Total – Summary ... 49
Oula Fuel Marketing Company – Summary .. 50
Soor Fuel Marketing Company – Summary . 50
Kuwait Energy – Summary .. 50
Table: Oil Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) ... 51
Table: Oil Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) .. 51
Table: Oil Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) . 52
Table: Oil Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) . 52
Table : Refining Capacity – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) 53
Table: Refining Capacity – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) 53
Table: Gas Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) ... 54
Table: Gas Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) .. 54
Table: Gas Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) .. 55
Table: Gas Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm).. 55
Table: Net LNG Exports – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 56
Table: Net LNG Exports – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) ... 56
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts . 57
Glossary Of Terms . 58
Table: Glossary Of Terms 58
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 60
Ratings Overview .. 60
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure ... 61
Indicators .. 61
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology 61
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology 62
BMI Methodology ... 64
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ... 64
Energy Industry 64
Cross checks . 65
Sources . 65Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 (''000 b/d) . 7
Table: Oil Consumption Forecast, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) . 13
Table: Kuwait – Upstream Project Database . 19
Table: Kuwait Oil & Gas – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 20
Table: Kuwait Oil & Gas – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 . 21
Table: Refineries In Kuwait . 26
Table: BMI O&G Risk/Reward Ratings . 31
Table: BMI Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings . 32
Table: BMI Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings. 33
Table: Key Players – Kuwaiti Oil & Gas Sector . 35
Table: Key Upstream Player . 39
Table: Key Downstream Players . 40
Table: Oil Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (''000b/d) . 51
Table: Oil Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (''000b/d) . 51
Table: Oil Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (''000b/d) . 52
Table: Oil Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (''000b/d) . 52
Table : Refining Capacity – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (''000b/d) . 53
Table: Refining Capacity – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (''000b/d) . 53
Table: Gas Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) . 54
Table: Gas Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) . 54
Table: Gas Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) . 55
Table: Gas Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm). 55
Table: Net LNG Exports – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) . 56
Table: Net LNG Exports – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) . 56
Table: Glossary Of Terms . 58
Table: BMI''s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure . 61
Table: BMI''s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology . 61
Table: BMI''s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology . 62