Ghana Commercial Banking Report Q3 2012

Since Q108, BMI has described numerically the banking business environment for each of the
countries it surveys. We do this through our Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating
(CBBER), a measure that ensures we capture the latest quantitative information available. It also ensures
consistency across all countries and between the inputs to the CBBER and the Insurance Business
Environment Rating, which is likewise now a feature of our insurance reports. Like the Business
Environment Ratings calculated by BMI for all the other industries on which it reports, the CBBER takes
into account the limits of potential returns and the risks to the realisation of those returns. It is weighted
70% to the former and 30% to the latter.

The evaluation of the ''Limits of potential returns'' includes market elements that are specific to the
banking industry of the country in question and elements that relate to that country in general. Within the
70% of the CBBER that takes into account the ''Limits of potential returns'', the market elements have a
60% weighting and the country elements have a 40% weighting. The evaluation of the ''Risks to
realisation of returns'' also includes banking elements and country elements (specifically, BMI''s
assessment of long-term country risk). However, within the 30% of the CBBER that take into account the
risks, these elements are weighted 40% and 60%, respectively.

Further details on how we calculate the CBBER are provided at the end of this report. In general, though,
three aspects need to be borne in mind in interpreting the CBBERs. The first is that the market elements
of the ''Limits of potential returns'' are by far the most heavily weighted of the four elements. They account
for 60% of 70% (or 42%) of the overall CBBER. Second, if the market elements are significantly higher
than the country elements of the ''Limits of potential returns'', it usually implies that the banking sector is
(very) large and/or developed relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the
country. Conversely, if the market elements are significantly lower than the country elements, it usually
means that the banking sector is small and/or underdeveloped relative to the general wealth, stability and
financial infrastructure in the country. Third, within the ''Risks to the realisation of returns'' category, the
market elements (i.e. how regulations affect the development of the sector, how regulations affect
competition within it, and Moody''s Investor Services'' ratings for local currency deposits) can be markedly
different from BMI''s long-term risk rating.

Ghana Commercial Banking Industry

Published: August 2012                      No. of Pages: 49                       Price: US $ 1175

 

Table of Contents
 

Executive Summary . 5
Table: Levels (GHSbn). 5
Table: Levels (US$bn) . 5
Table: Levels At December 2011 5
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2012-2016 (%) . 5
Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2011 6
Table: Projected Levels (GHSbn) . 6
Table: Projected Levels (US$bn) 6
SWOT Analysis 7
Ghana Commercial Banking SWOT . 7
Ghana Political SWOT 8
Ghana Economic SWOT 9
Ghana Business Environment SWOT 10
Business Environment Outlook 11
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating . 11
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 11
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology 12
Table: Middle East and Africa Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 13
Global Commercial Banking Outlook . 14
Regional Outlooks . 22
Mobile Money Services: Assessing The Risks To Macro Stability And The Banking Sector . 22
MEA Banking Sector Forecast Overview 27
Table: Banks'' Bond Portfolios, 2010-2011 27
Table: Middle East And Africa Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings . 28
Table: Comparison Of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset And Loan/GDP Ratios 29
Table: Anticipated Developments In 2012 . 30
Table: Comparison Of Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits, 2010-2011(US$bn) . 31
Table: Comparison Of Per Capita Deposits, 2011 (US$) . 32
Table: Interbank Rates And Bond Yields, 2011-Q112 33
Ghana Specific Banking Sector Outlook . 34
Banking Sector Booming, Despite NPLs 34
Economic Outlook . 37
Company Profiles 40
Ghana Commercial Bank 40
Standard Chartered Bank Ghana 41
Barclays Bank of Ghana . 42
Agricultural Development Bank 43
Ecobank Ghana 44
BMI Banking Sector Methodology . 45
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale 47
Table: Weighting Of Indicators. 48Table: Levels (GHSbn)
Table: Levels (US$bn)
Table: Levels At December
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections (%)
Table: Ranking Out Of Countries Reviewed In
Table: Projected Levels (GHSbn)
Table: Projected Levels (US$bn)
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
Table: Middle East and Africa Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
Table: Banks'' Bond Portfolios
Table: Middle East And Africa Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
Table: Comparison Of Loan/Deposit Loan/Asset And Loan/GDP Ratios
Table: Anticipated Developments In
Table: Comparison Of Total Assets Client Loans And Client Deposits (US$bn)
Table: Comparison Of Per Capita Deposits (US$)
Table: Interbank Rates And Bond Yields Q
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale
Table: Weighting Of Indicators c