Iran Oil and Gas Report Q3 2012

Sanctions on the country are now beginning to bite, with a resultant fall in oil export volumes
and revenues. Gas export schemes and refinery expansion projects will make little progress as
international oil company (IOC) partners heed the investment embargo, so the overall outlook will
continue to deteriorate without a breakthrough in the nuclear stalemate. Meanwhile, Iran is claiming a
succession of major oil and gas discoveries that, if proven, demonstrate considerable upside potential to
its existing resource base.

We highlight the following trends and developments in Iran’s oil and gas sector:

• BMI sees Iranian oil production declining in 2012-13 owing to the effects of international
  sanctions on exports, although the ‘end game’ between Iran and the West is unpredictable at this
  stage. Liquids output is seen at 3.60mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2012 and 3.40mn b/d in 2013.
  Assuming a successful resolution of the situation and the lifting of sanctions, we now forecast
  liquids output recovering to 3.74mn b/d by 2016 and to 3.90mn b/d by 2021.
• While fuel subsidy reforms have undermined the domestic oil consumption trend, we still expect
  to see steady expansion of the Iranian market, driving net crude oil exports down from 2.30mn
  b/d in 2011 to a low of 1.52mn b/d in 2013.
• The outlook for dramatic and sustained growth in gas exports has changed dramatically with the
  impact of sanctions on foreign investment levels. For the foreseeable future, we see no progress
  in the development of liquefied natural gas (LNG) schemes, nor the gas field projects designed
  to supply the fuel. Net gas exports now look set to remain at a very modest level until Iran
  resolves its issues with the Western world.
• On May 10 2012, Iran''s state news agency announced the discovery of 8-10bn barrels (bbl) of oil
  in an unnamed oilfield located within the Iranian sector of the Caspian Sea. After the ''huge light
  crude oil'' discovery reported by Mehr in April 2012, this is the second reportedly substantial find
  to have been made in 2012. The Caspian oil discovery suggests that the total volume of
  resources found since 2009 - according to Iranian news sources - could easily exceed 53.06bn
  bbl of liquids and 3,500bn cubic metres (bcm) of gas.
• Based on an assumed 2012 average OPEC basket oil price of US$111.47/bbl, we are forecasting
  oil revenues for the year of US$70.9bn, and total hydrocarbons revenues of US$72.6bn. By
  2016, assuming an average US$99.00/bbl, total revenues should be US$64.7bn, easing to
  US$60.5bn by 2021 (assuming an oil price of US$97.00/bbl).

Iran Oil and Gas Market
 

Published: August 2012                      No. of Pages: 91                       Price: US $ 1175

 

Table of Contents
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT Analysis 8
IranOil and Gas SWOT 8
Global Energy Market Outlook . 9
Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 (’000 b/d) 9
Table: Oil Consumption Forecast, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) . 15
Regional Energy Market Outlook 16
Iran Energy Market Overview . 20
Table: Iran’s Upstream Projects . 22
Industry Forecast Scenario 24
Table: Iran’s Oil & Gas – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 24
Table: Iran’s Oil & Gas – Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 25
Oil And Gas Reserves 26
Oil Supply And Demand 26
Gas Supply And Demand 28
LNG 30
Refining And Oil Products Trade 30
Revenues/Import Costs . 31
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 31
Oil And Gas Infrastructure . 32
Oil Refineries 32
Table: Refineries In Iran . 32
Service Stations 34
Oil Storage Facilities . 34
Oil Terminals/Ports 35
Oil Pipelines . 35
LNG Terminals 36
Gas Pipelines 36
Gas Storage 41
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings . 42
Table: BMI O&G Risk/Reward Ratings 42
Table: BMI Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings . 43
Table: BMI Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings 44
Iran Upstream Rating – Overview . 44
Iran Upstream Rating – Rewards 44
Iran Upstream Rating – Risks 45
Iran Downstream Rating – Overview 45
Competitive Landscape 46
Executive Summary . 46
Table: Key Players – Iranian Oil And Gas Sector 46
Overview/State Role 47
Licensing And Regulation . 47
Government Policy . 47
Refined Fuels Policy 48
International Energy Relations . 49
Iran Oil & Gas Report Q312
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United Nations . 49
United States 50
Canada 51
China 51
East and South East Asia 51
Russia . 52
India 52
Venezuela . 53
Iraq And The Gulf States . 53
European Union . 54
Turkey . 56
Kuwait. 56
Table: Key Upstream Operators – Iran Oil And Gas Sector 57
Table: Key Downstream Operators – Iran Energy Sector 57
Company Monitor 58
National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) 58
National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company (NIORDC) 61
Eni . 64
Total Iran . 66
Shell Development Iran 68
China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) . 70
ONGC Videsh (OVL) . 73
Statoil – Summary . 75
CNOOC – Summary 75
OMV – Summary 75
BP – Summary . 75
Sinopec – Summary . 75
Gazprom – Summary 76
Middle East - Regional Appendix 77
Table: Oil Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) . 77
Table: Oil Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) 77
Table: Oil Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) . 78
Table: Oil Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) 78
Table : Refining Capacity – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) . 79
Table: Refining Capacity – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) 79
Table: Gas Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) . 80
Table: Gas Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) . 80
Table: Gas Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) . 81
Table: Gas Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 81
Table: Net LNG Exports – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 82
Table: Net LNG Exports – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 82
Glossary Of Terms . 83
Table: Glossary Of Terms . 83
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 85
Ratings Overview 85
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure 86
Indicators . 86
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology 86
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology 87
Iran Oil & Gas Report Q312
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BMI Methodology . 89
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 89
Energy Industry 89
Cross checks . 90
Sources 90Table: Oil Production Forecasts (’ b/d)
Table: Oil Consumption Forecast (‘ b/d)
Table: Iran’s Upstream Projects
Table: Iran’s Oil & Gas – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Iran’s Oil & Gas – LongTerm Forecasts
Table: Refineries In Iran
Table: BMI O&G Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: BMI Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: BMI Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Key Players – Iranian Oil And Gas Sector
Table: Key Upstream Operators – Iran Oil And Gas Sector
Table: Key Downstream Operators – Iran Energy Sector
Table: Oil Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts (’b/d)
Table: Oil Consumption – LongTerm Forecasts (’b/d)
Table: Oil Production – Historical Data & Forecasts (’b/d)
Table: Oil Production – LongTerm Forecasts (’b/d)
Table : Refining Capacity – Historical Data & Forecasts (’b/d)
Table: Refining Capacity – LongTerm Forecasts (’b/d)
Table: Gas Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts (bcm)
Table: Gas Consumption – LongTerm Forecasts (bcm)
Table: Gas Production – Historical Data & Forecasts (bcm)
Table: Gas Production – LongTerm Forecasts (bcm)
Table: Net LNG Exports – Historical Data & Forecasts (bcm)
Table: Net LNG Exports – LongTerm Forecasts (bcm)
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology