Agriculture will continue to be one of the leading sectors in the Turkish economy, as it will
benefit from increasing export opportunities in the long term in the Middle East and Asia and from a
growing domestic demand base. Turkey will remain a major flour exporter, although wheat output is
expected to decline in the coming years. In 2011/12, however, grains production will grow on the back of
increased plantings for wheat and of higher yields for corn. Hampered by high domestic feed prices,
poultry and beef production are likely to experience a modest expansion in 2011/12. Growth in the sugar
industry, which has been characterised by strict government regulations, will be supported by the
ongoing liberalisation process.
Key Forecasts
Sugar production growth to 2015/16: 14.7% to 2.6mn tonnes. Sugar production will be
supported by low base effects and slight improvements in industry efficiency. More reform
efforts and the return of risk appetite to private investors are likely to lead to improved
equipment and production methods.
Wheat production growth to 2016: -0.6% to 19.6mn tonnes. Wheat support prices from
government purchases are still low when compared with market prices. Therefore, total support
for farmers, including fertiliser, diesel, certified seed and soil, does not appear sufficient to
create better production growth in the coming years.
Poultry consumption growth to 2015/16: 12.5% to 1.5mn tonnes. This strong demand growth
will be driven by increasing disposable incomes and the rise of fast-food chains and higher-end
eateries providing poultry dishes.
2012 real GDP growth: 4.5% (down from 7.0% in 2011; predicted to average 5.4% over 2011-
2016).
Consumer price inflation: 8.3% on average in 2012, (up from 7.7% on average in 2011).
BMI universe agribusiness market value: 1.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase to US$21.8bn
in 2011/12, forecast to increase by an annual average of 2.1% between 2010/11 and 2015/16.
Key Developments
Turkey''s wheat production is expected to decline in the 2012/13 season, which started in June. Owing to
unfavourable weather conditions, mainly cold winter temperatures and low rainfall in the growing season,
yields and area harvested are expected to be below average. The Turkish Grain Board started in 2012 to
purchase wheat according to protein content, which is an indicator of the quality of the crop. This is likely
Turkey Agribusiness Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 6
to push farmers to use certified seed in bigger quantities and therefore grow higher-quality wheat in
coming years.
The Energy Market Regulatory Authority announced on September 27 2011 that fuel producers must mix
about 2% of ethanol into the oil sold in the country starting from January 1 2013. This is expected to
increase the need for sugar and support production growth in the longer term. Because the new law asks
for the ethanol produced to come from local agricultural products, we believe this could conflict with the
country''s production quota system and therefore accelerate the process of reform of the sugar industry.
This, combined with current reforms of the sugar quotas in the EU, could help to take output higher in the
medium term.
Poultry, the main livestock product produced in Turkey, is forecast to experience strong growth in
2011/12 as well as in the long term, driven by increasing domestic consumption as well as export
demand. New export opportunities are arising from Middle Eastern countries, in addition to Turkey''s
traditional clients such as Iraq, Azerbaijan, Tajikistan and Iran. With Saudi Arabia lifting a seven-year
ban on poultry imports following the bird flu epidemic in 2005, exports are likely to pick up in coming
years.
Turkey Agribusiness Industry
Table of Contents
Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis . 7
Turkey Agriculture Swot 7
Turkey Business Environment SWOT 8
Supply Demand Analysis 9
Turkey Grains Outlook 9
Table: Turkey Wheat Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 10
Table: Turkey Corn Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 10
Table: Turkey Barley Production, Consumption & Trade, 2011-2016 10
Table: Turkey Wheat Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 . 14
Table:Turkey Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 15
Table: Turkey Barley Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 . 15
Turkey Livestock Outlook 16
Table:Turkey Poultry Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 17
Table:Turkey Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 17
Table:Turkey Poultry Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 19
Table:Turkey Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 . 19
Turkey Rice Outlook 20
Table:Turkey Rice Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 21
Table:Turkey Rice Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 22
Turkey Sugar Outlook 22
Table:Turkey Sugar Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 23
Table:Turkey Sugar Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 . 25
Commodity Price Analysis . 26
Monthly Softs Update . 26
Cocoa: 2012 Outperformance To Continue 27
Coffee: Next Support At USc130.0/lb 28
Palm Oil: False Break? 30
Sugar: More Fears Over Brazilian Crop . 31
Cotton: Technical Bounce Over? 32
Table:Select Commodities: Performance & BMI Forecasts 33
Monthly Grains Update 34
Wheat - Deteriorating Supply Prospects 35
Corn - Anticipating US Supply Downgrades . 36
Soybean - Range Trading Ahead . 37
Rice - Ample Supply To Keep Prices In Check 39
Table:Select Commodities: Performance & BMI Forecasts 40
Upstream Analysis . 41
Europe GM Outlook 41
Table:Brazil, United States Corn Production, Consumption & Trade, 2011-2016 . 44
Europe Fertiliser Outlook . 45
EMEA Machinery Outlook 48
Downstream Analysis . 52
Food 52
Food Consumption 56
Turkey Agribusiness Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2008-2016 56
Confectionery. 57
Table: Value/Volume Sales of Selected Food Sub-sectors - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 58
Canned Food . 59
Table: Canned Food - Historical Data & Forecast, 2009-2016 59
Processed Foods 60
Table: Pasta - Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast, 2009-2016 60
Table: Fish - Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast, 2009-2016 60
Table: Breads and Jellies - Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast 62
Dairy . 62
Table: Dairy - Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast, 2009-2016 . 63
Drink . 65
Alcoholic Drinks 65
Table: Beer Volume/Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 66
Soft Drinks 66
Table: Soft Drinks, 2009-2016 67
Hot Drinks 68
Table: Tea Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 69
Trade 69
Table: Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 70
Mass Grocery Retail 71
Table: Turkey Mass Grocery Retail Sales by Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 72
Table E: Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data and Forecasts 72
Demographic Data 73
Table: Turkey''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) 74
Table: Turkey''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of population) 75
Table: Turkey''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 76
Table: Turkey''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 76
BMI Forecast Modelling 77
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 77Table: Turkey Wheat Production & Consumption
Table: Turkey Corn Production & Consumption
Table: Turkey Barley Production Consumption & Trade
Table: Turkey Wheat Production & Consumption
Table:Turkey Corn Production & Consumption
Table: Turkey Barley Production & Consumption
Table:Turkey Poultry Production & Consumption
Table:Turkey Beef & Veal Production & Consumption
Table:Turkey Poultry Production & Consumption
Table:Turkey Beef & Veal Production & Consumption
Table:Turkey Rice Production & Consumption
Table:Turkey Rice Production & Consumption
Table:Turkey Sugar Production & Consumption
Table:Turkey Sugar Production & Consumption
Table:Select Commodities: Performance & BMI Forecasts
Table:Select Commodities: Performance & BMI Forecasts
Table:Brazil United States Corn Production Consumption & Trade
Table: Food Consumption Indicators Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Value/Volume Sales of Selected Food Subsectors Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Canned Food Historical Data & Forecast
Table: Pasta Production Consumption & Trade Historical Data & Forecast
Table: Fish Production Consumption & Trade Historical Data & Forecast
Table: Breads and Jellies Production Consumption & Trade Historical Data & Forecast
Table: Dairy Production Consumption & Trade Historical Data & Forecast
Table: Beer Volume/Value Sales Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Soft Drinks
Table: Tea Value/Volume Sales Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Trade Indicators Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Turkey Mass Grocery Retail Sales by Format Historical Data & Forecasts
Table E: Grocery Retail Sales By Format Historical Data and Forecasts
Table: Turkey''s Population By Age Group ('')
Table: Turkey''s Population By Age Group (% of population)
Table: Turkey''s Key Population Ratios
Table: Turkey''s Rural And Urban Population
benefit from increasing export opportunities in the long term in the Middle East and Asia and from a
growing domestic demand base. Turkey will remain a major flour exporter, although wheat output is
expected to decline in the coming years. In 2011/12, however, grains production will grow on the back of
increased plantings for wheat and of higher yields for corn. Hampered by high domestic feed prices,
poultry and beef production are likely to experience a modest expansion in 2011/12. Growth in the sugar
industry, which has been characterised by strict government regulations, will be supported by the
ongoing liberalisation process.
Key Forecasts
Sugar production growth to 2015/16: 14.7% to 2.6mn tonnes. Sugar production will be
supported by low base effects and slight improvements in industry efficiency. More reform
efforts and the return of risk appetite to private investors are likely to lead to improved
equipment and production methods.
Wheat production growth to 2016: -0.6% to 19.6mn tonnes. Wheat support prices from
government purchases are still low when compared with market prices. Therefore, total support
for farmers, including fertiliser, diesel, certified seed and soil, does not appear sufficient to
create better production growth in the coming years.
Poultry consumption growth to 2015/16: 12.5% to 1.5mn tonnes. This strong demand growth
will be driven by increasing disposable incomes and the rise of fast-food chains and higher-end
eateries providing poultry dishes.
2012 real GDP growth: 4.5% (down from 7.0% in 2011; predicted to average 5.4% over 2011-
2016).
Consumer price inflation: 8.3% on average in 2012, (up from 7.7% on average in 2011).
BMI universe agribusiness market value: 1.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase to US$21.8bn
in 2011/12, forecast to increase by an annual average of 2.1% between 2010/11 and 2015/16.
Key Developments
Turkey''s wheat production is expected to decline in the 2012/13 season, which started in June. Owing to
unfavourable weather conditions, mainly cold winter temperatures and low rainfall in the growing season,
yields and area harvested are expected to be below average. The Turkish Grain Board started in 2012 to
purchase wheat according to protein content, which is an indicator of the quality of the crop. This is likely
Turkey Agribusiness Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 6
to push farmers to use certified seed in bigger quantities and therefore grow higher-quality wheat in
coming years.
The Energy Market Regulatory Authority announced on September 27 2011 that fuel producers must mix
about 2% of ethanol into the oil sold in the country starting from January 1 2013. This is expected to
increase the need for sugar and support production growth in the longer term. Because the new law asks
for the ethanol produced to come from local agricultural products, we believe this could conflict with the
country''s production quota system and therefore accelerate the process of reform of the sugar industry.
This, combined with current reforms of the sugar quotas in the EU, could help to take output higher in the
medium term.
Poultry, the main livestock product produced in Turkey, is forecast to experience strong growth in
2011/12 as well as in the long term, driven by increasing domestic consumption as well as export
demand. New export opportunities are arising from Middle Eastern countries, in addition to Turkey''s
traditional clients such as Iraq, Azerbaijan, Tajikistan and Iran. With Saudi Arabia lifting a seven-year
ban on poultry imports following the bird flu epidemic in 2005, exports are likely to pick up in coming
years.
Turkey Agribusiness Industry
Published: August
2012 No. of Pages: 80 Price: US $ 1175
Table of Contents
Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis . 7
Turkey Agriculture Swot 7
Turkey Business Environment SWOT 8
Supply Demand Analysis 9
Turkey Grains Outlook 9
Table: Turkey Wheat Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 10
Table: Turkey Corn Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 10
Table: Turkey Barley Production, Consumption & Trade, 2011-2016 10
Table: Turkey Wheat Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 . 14
Table:Turkey Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 15
Table: Turkey Barley Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 . 15
Turkey Livestock Outlook 16
Table:Turkey Poultry Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 17
Table:Turkey Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 17
Table:Turkey Poultry Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 19
Table:Turkey Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 . 19
Turkey Rice Outlook 20
Table:Turkey Rice Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 21
Table:Turkey Rice Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 22
Turkey Sugar Outlook 22
Table:Turkey Sugar Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 23
Table:Turkey Sugar Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 . 25
Commodity Price Analysis . 26
Monthly Softs Update . 26
Cocoa: 2012 Outperformance To Continue 27
Coffee: Next Support At USc130.0/lb 28
Palm Oil: False Break? 30
Sugar: More Fears Over Brazilian Crop . 31
Cotton: Technical Bounce Over? 32
Table:Select Commodities: Performance & BMI Forecasts 33
Monthly Grains Update 34
Wheat - Deteriorating Supply Prospects 35
Corn - Anticipating US Supply Downgrades . 36
Soybean - Range Trading Ahead . 37
Rice - Ample Supply To Keep Prices In Check 39
Table:Select Commodities: Performance & BMI Forecasts 40
Upstream Analysis . 41
Europe GM Outlook 41
Table:Brazil, United States Corn Production, Consumption & Trade, 2011-2016 . 44
Europe Fertiliser Outlook . 45
EMEA Machinery Outlook 48
Downstream Analysis . 52
Food 52
Food Consumption 56
Turkey Agribusiness Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2008-2016 56
Confectionery. 57
Table: Value/Volume Sales of Selected Food Sub-sectors - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 58
Canned Food . 59
Table: Canned Food - Historical Data & Forecast, 2009-2016 59
Processed Foods 60
Table: Pasta - Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast, 2009-2016 60
Table: Fish - Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast, 2009-2016 60
Table: Breads and Jellies - Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast 62
Dairy . 62
Table: Dairy - Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast, 2009-2016 . 63
Drink . 65
Alcoholic Drinks 65
Table: Beer Volume/Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 66
Soft Drinks 66
Table: Soft Drinks, 2009-2016 67
Hot Drinks 68
Table: Tea Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 69
Trade 69
Table: Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 70
Mass Grocery Retail 71
Table: Turkey Mass Grocery Retail Sales by Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 72
Table E: Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data and Forecasts 72
Demographic Data 73
Table: Turkey''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) 74
Table: Turkey''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of population) 75
Table: Turkey''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 76
Table: Turkey''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 76
BMI Forecast Modelling 77
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 77Table: Turkey Wheat Production & Consumption
Table: Turkey Corn Production & Consumption
Table: Turkey Barley Production Consumption & Trade
Table: Turkey Wheat Production & Consumption
Table:Turkey Corn Production & Consumption
Table: Turkey Barley Production & Consumption
Table:Turkey Poultry Production & Consumption
Table:Turkey Beef & Veal Production & Consumption
Table:Turkey Poultry Production & Consumption
Table:Turkey Beef & Veal Production & Consumption
Table:Turkey Rice Production & Consumption
Table:Turkey Rice Production & Consumption
Table:Turkey Sugar Production & Consumption
Table:Turkey Sugar Production & Consumption
Table:Select Commodities: Performance & BMI Forecasts
Table:Select Commodities: Performance & BMI Forecasts
Table:Brazil United States Corn Production Consumption & Trade
Table: Food Consumption Indicators Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Value/Volume Sales of Selected Food Subsectors Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Canned Food Historical Data & Forecast
Table: Pasta Production Consumption & Trade Historical Data & Forecast
Table: Fish Production Consumption & Trade Historical Data & Forecast
Table: Breads and Jellies Production Consumption & Trade Historical Data & Forecast
Table: Dairy Production Consumption & Trade Historical Data & Forecast
Table: Beer Volume/Value Sales Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Soft Drinks
Table: Tea Value/Volume Sales Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Trade Indicators Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Turkey Mass Grocery Retail Sales by Format Historical Data & Forecasts
Table E: Grocery Retail Sales By Format Historical Data and Forecasts
Table: Turkey''s Population By Age Group ('')
Table: Turkey''s Population By Age Group (% of population)
Table: Turkey''s Key Population Ratios
Table: Turkey''s Rural And Urban Population
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